The NFL’s legal tampering window opened five days ago, and the New York Jets’ depth chart looks completely different from when the tri-state area woke up on Monday morning.
That means the Jets’ NFL draft outlook has been clarified to a certain extent.
Many needs that existed before the draft have become less pressing. In turn, the needs that were not addressed have become significantly more pressing.
As a result, we are left with a fascinating shift in the Jets’ expectations throughout the draft community. Mock drafters around the world have become noticeably more certain about who the Jets will end up selecting.
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database, here is the consensus mock draft as of March 14, using mocks from the past week.
Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (100% of picks)
New York Jets: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State (85%)
Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (39%)
Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (41%)
New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State (52%)
Cleveland Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State (22%)
Washington Commanders: Rueben Bain, EDGE, Miami (29%)
New Orleans Saints: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (9%)
Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU (24%)
Cincinnati Bengals: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech (4%)
Miami Dolphins: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee (9%)
Dallas Cowboys: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon (10%)
Los Angeles Rams: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah (25%)
Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane, IOL, Penn State (50%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon (26%)
New York Jets: Makai Lemon, WR, USC (30%)
Ohio State linebacker/edge defender Arvell Reese has long been the favorite for New York at No. 2 overall. But after the Jets’ recent wave of free agency moves, he has elevated to a near-lock in that slot.
As of March 6, only 65% of mock drafters in the site’s database were projecting Reese to New York at No. 2. After free agency, that number has jumped by a whopping 20% to 85%.
The Jets’ free agency additions paint the picture of a schematic vision that would perfectly suit Reese’s aggressive play style and versatile skill set. It is also important to note that, despite adding two edge defenders in free agency, the Jets did not take a big swing at the position, which means they still have a glaring need for a star at the position.
At this point, it would be quite surprising if New York did not select Reese second overall.
Things also seem to be clearing up for the Jets at No. 16, even if not nearly to the same extent as the No. 2 pick (which isn’t possible, of course). There, the Jets are now favored to take USC wide receiver Makai Lemon.
The Jets were also expected to select a wide receiver at No. 16 on March 6, but it was Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson, and only 23% of mock drafters were projecting it. Today, that number has risen to 30%, and Lemon has replaced Tyson.
Outside of a long-term need at quarterback, wide receiver has emerged as the Jets’ clear-cut No. 1 need after free agency. The Jets have yet to add a single player to a unit whose top player failed to reach 400 receiving yards last year. It’s still just Garrett Wilson and a bunch of unproven youngsters.
For that reason, a wide receiver selection at No. 16 is starting to look quite likely. Exactly who that wideout will be is a question that shall remain in limbo until draft night, but given the Jets’ neglect of a desperate need at a premium position, it would be a mild shock if they are not planning on using a first-round pick to address the lingering problem.
This is not to say that drafting a wide receiver at No. 16 is a lock for the Jets. No NFL team likes to draft for needs; “best player available” remains the prevailing strategy.
Still, when a need is this glaring, and there will likely be multiple worthy options to choose from, it stands to reason that the position has a high likelihood of ultimately being the choice.
As of today, an EDGE/WR first-round combo is the consensus favorite for the Jets, but don’t take it to the bank just yet—the draft is always full of surprises.