Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
We could look back at 2023 as the final year of actual March Madness. Florida Atlantic, out of Conference USA, made the Final Four. San Diego State, out of the Mountain West, made the national championship game. Princeton, ranked 116th when the bracket was revealed, made a Sweet 16 run. Fairleigh Dickinson, ranked 312 and a No. 16 seed, upset top-seeded Purdue.
Since then, name, image and likeness and the transfer portal have funneled the best talent to high-majors. Among the six starters who still had eligibility remaining in the Final Four game between Florida Atlantic and San Diego State, only one didn’t finish his career elsewhere.
Last year, only two true mid-majors (Drake and McNeese) won tourney games. Neither advanced past the second round. Three other teams I’d consider “mid-major pluses” (Saint Mary’s, New Mexico and Colorado State) also made the second round but did not advance to the second weekend.
At KenPom, where Ken Pomeroy has been tracking adjusted efficiency margins since 1997, there’s a magic number that quantifies a truly elite team — plus-35, meaning a team would be expected to outscore the average team by 35 points per 100 possessions. Only 10 teams have ever finished the year above 35. All have made the Final Four.
Four were the No. 1 seeds last season.
Duke, Michigan and Arizona are above that mark this season, suggesting we could have another very chalky March and April.
For the good of the NCAA Tournament, I hope I’m wrong. But last year, I was seeing similar trends, and among those mid-majors who won a game, they all entered the tourney as top-60 teams on KenPom. I’d be hesitant to pick anyone outside that top 60 to advance at all and definitely not far. (Miami (Ohio), for those wondering, ranks 93rd.)
And, before you criticize my boring picks, remember this: There are bench guys on high-major teams making six figures. The divide between the haves and have-nots has never been bigger.
That doesn’t mean the tourney will be boring. The talent this year is near the best in the modern era because NIL has really good players staying in school longer, top international talent coming to college and this freshman class is one of the best ever.
I always start my bracket by picking my champ first. My preseason pick was Michigan, and even with the loss in Sunday’s Big Ten final, I’m sticking with Dusty May’s team. No one in college basketball is better than motivated Michigan, and Sunday’s loss might be a good opportunity to refocus and add an edge.
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Final Four pick: Duke
The foot injury to Patrick Ngongba II has me a little nervous about the Blue Devils. Jon Scheyer has a great second option in Maliq Brown, but it just takes one game of foul trouble to Brown or star Cameron Boozer for that Ngongba absence to matter. Ohio State is talented and could be a potential trip-up spot. Ngongba’s status is still up in the air, but I’m going to bet he’s back by the second weekend. Michigan State has the bigs to match up with Duke and played the Devils close back in early December. UConn, when on, is also good enough to beat Duke. The injury to Caleb Foster also has me a little weary of picking Duke, but I’ve also done a total 180 on Duke this year. I’m done doubting the Blue Devils. The combination of their defense and Boozer will get them to Indy.
Most stressful decision: UCLA over UConn
The Bruins have been playing great and are much better than a No. 7 seed. The injuries to Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau will be important to monitor this week. If they’re healthy, I think you could argue that UCLA’s talent is just as good as UConn’s. The Huskies’ Tarris Reed is the guy who could make this pick look dumb. The Huskies have an advantage in the Reed-Xavier Booker matchup. But UConn is limping into the tournament and I’m skeptical of the Big East this year. The league was not good — only three teams in the tourney — and while UConn went 17-3, it wasn’t a dominant 17-3. So I’m fading the Big East and the Huskies.
Best chance at an upset: South Florida over Louisville
The Cards have been untrustworthy and it’s hard to know if star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. (back injury) will be a part of the tournament. Louisville is at its best when it’s getting paint touches and able to score efficiently both from beyond the arc and in the paint. South Florida has a good 2-point defense and high-major talent. Plus, star guard Wes Enis is on a heater, averaging 23.4 points over his last five games.
Matchup I hope to see: Duke against Michigan State or UConn
Either could be an elite regional final. Star coaches. Potentially, a chance for Tom Izzo to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2019. Both of those teams at the bottom of the region have the frontcourts to match up with Duke and potentially give Boozer issues. I’m almost talking myself into picking the Spartans, because I’m a believer in the Big Ten and the Foster injury really could matter for Duke. And who knows if Duke will even get there, because Rick Pitino, who starts three bigs at St. John’s, also has the size to match Duke’s. Whether it’s St. John’s or Kansas in the Sweet 16, there’s going to likely be a lot of star power in D.C.
West
Final Four pick: Arizona
My favorite Arizona stat: The Wildcats have allowed only two kill shots (a run of 10-0 or more) all season, and one came in mop-up minutes in a blowout over Norfolk State and the other in Saturday’s Big 12 tourney championship win over Houston. The Wildcats responded to a 14-0 run by scoring on six of their next seven possessions. No team has been more consistent from game to game. Tommy Lloyd always has an awesome offense, but the separator this year is his defense. That’s why the Cats will end up in the Final Four for the first time since 2001. Pretty wild for a program this consistently good. Arizona is due.
Most stressful decision: Wisconsin over Arkansas
These are two teams I would have assumed pre-bracket would end up in the Sweet 16. Both have excellent guard play and bigs who can shoot. I’m going with the veterans at Wisconsin. No one is playing better right now on the perimeter than the duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell.
Best chance at an upset: Wisconsin over Arizona in the Sweet 16
I’m putting my trust in the Wildcats, but they’re going to have a tough Sweet 16 game, whether it’s Wisconsin or Arkansas, because they have the shotmaking to make Arizona rethink putting center Motiejus Krivas in drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. Michigan, a similarly built team to Arizona, really had trouble with the Badgers. Plus, Wisconsin has road wins this year at Michigan, Illinois and Purdue. It can beat elite teams.
Matchup I hope to see: Arizona-Purdue
Two years ago, the best environment I attended was Purdue-Arizona at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Purdue won that one, and Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer were fantastic. Both would likely have strong followings and could provide a terrific game. The Boilers finally look to be playing to their ceiling after struggling down the stretch of the regular season. Purdue always seems to be in classic regional finals. This could be one of those games.
Midwest
Final Four pick: Michigan
There are a few landmines in this region. Saint Louis is limping into the tournament, but has the potential to catch fire from 3. Same for Alabama. The issue is that the Crimson Tide has struggled with big teams. Iowa State is another team that can get hot from deep, but it also doesn’t have great size inside. The Wolverines should be able to overwhelm everyone in this region.
Most stressful decision: Virginia over Tennessee
These feel like two evenly matched teams and both are similarly built around defense and rebounding. I trust Virginia’s bigs slightly more. Thijs De Ridder will need to have a good game and bounce back after scoring just five points in Saturday’s loss to Duke.
Best chance at an upset: Akron over Texas Tech
I’m just barely breaking my rule here. Akron is currently No. 64 at KenPom. Texas Tech is ripe for an upset without JT Toppin and with Christian Anderson potentially hobbled. Texas Tech has said Anderson will play, but he injured his groin at the Big 12 Tournament. The Red Raiders aren’t great defensively and Akron has one of the best mid-major offenses in the country. Akron is the smallest team in the tourney and that could be an issue against some high-majors, but not Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are the smallest high-major team in the field.
Matchup I hope to see: Michigan-Iowa State
That environment will be awesome. Chicago is drivable for both fan bases. Iowa State hasn’t made a Final Four since 1944. Yaxel Lendeborg and Joshua Jefferson are two of the best forwards in college basketball. I think Michigan’s size inside will be the difference, but the most similarly built team in the Big 12 is Arizona and I just witnessed Arizona and Iowa State play one of the games of the season.
South
Final Four pick: Illinois
I went back and forth between Florida, Houston and Illinois. There’s not a lot separating these teams. At KenPom, they’re Nos. 4, 5 and 7. Florida and Houston have elite defenses. The Illini had the best offense in college basketball most of the year. To beat both Florida and Houston, you have to be able to spread them out and open up lanes to get to the basket. The Illini are among the best in the country at figuring out ways to manipulate defenses and have the shooting to spread these teams out. Also, Illinois is better than its record. The Illini lost four of their eight games in overtime, going 0-4 in extra time. Their late-game luck is due to flip. I initially had the Gators in the Final Four, but this feels like the most coin flip region, so if there’s a spot not to go chalk, this is it.
Most stressful decision: Illinois over Houston
On paper, it looks like Houston has home-court advantage, but the Illini have a passionate fan base. I’m going to bet there’s just as many, if not more, Illini fans in the Toyota Center. The Coogs seemed to figure out an offense outside of their guards driving in Kansas City. Joseph Tugler was fantastic in the short roll. Kelvin Sampson is 16-5 in the last five NCAA Tournaments. It’s hard to bet against him. But the Illini have a guard in Kylan Boswell who should be able to at least make things hard on Kingston Flemings. And Houston’s record against top 20 KenPom teams is just 2-5.
Best chance at an upset: VCU over North Carolina
The Heels are missing star freshman Caleb Wilson and VCU has won 15 of its last 16 games. Lazar Djokovic is one of the best mid-major bigs in the country. His matchup with UNC’s Henri Veesaar will be one to watch. One other reason to fade the Heels: Hubert Davis has only won two tourney games since the run to the 2022 title game in his first year.
Matchup I hope we see: Nebraska-Florida
I’m supposed to be impartial, but I’m pulling for the Huskers to finally win a tourney game for the first time in school history and get to the second weekend. I visited Lincoln this year and that group is one of the most mature and enjoyable teams I’ve ever been around. Sam Hoiberg could be the next Robbie Hummel. But before he starts broadcasting, he has a few more guards to pester. The ability for the Huskers to get hot from 3 could give Florida issues. Florida probably has too much size inside for Nebraska, but Florida is best when it can get out in transition, and Nebraska rarely turns it over and could turn it into a half-court game. And the no-middle defense for the Huskers is also like a zone — difficult to see in March.
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