It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Accuse me of West Coast bias if you want, but I’m all in on Arizona.

The top-seeded Wildcats have the Big 12 player of the year in point guard Jaden Bradley, super-talented freshmen in Koa Peat and Brayden Burries, and they bring two former starters off the bench in Anthony Dell’Orso and Tobe Awaka, the Big 12 sixth player of the year. The Wildcats are tested, tough and, I think, headed to their first Final Four in 25 years, where I expect them to cut down the nets.

As for everyone else, well, read on to find out who will wear Cinderella’s glass slipper this month, and which matchups are making me second-guess everything.

First
Round

Second
Round

Sweet 16

Elite
Eight

Final
Four

Final
Four

Elite
Eight

Sweet 16

Second
Round

First
Round

East

Final Four pick: UConn

It feels like anything could happen in this region, but I’m betting on senior forward Alex Karaban and Dan Hurley, the self-proclaimed best coach in the sport (tough to argue with his logic!). The Huskies have looked like national championship contenders all season, and the possibility of them getting another crack at St. John’s is extra interesting. Also, Duke is so good, but the Blue Devils’ health is not, which makes me hesitant to pick them.

Most stressful decision: Which Hall of Fame coach to ride with

Picking which one is coming out of the region is like picking your favorite child. I’m going with UConn because its 32-point win over St. John’s on Feb. 25 says more to me than its 20-point loss in the Big East championship, when the Huskies were playing their third game in three days. That said, the coaching talent in this region is overwhelming, and strong enough to make you constantly second-guess your bracket.

Best chance at an upset: Cal Baptist over Kansas

Cal Baptist and scoring superstar Dom Daniels Jr., who averages 23.2 points per game and has gone off for 30-plus multiple times this season, constitute a threat. I can absolutely see Daniels outplaying KU freshman Darryn Peterson and shocking the Jayhawks, who have been puzzlingly inconsistent. It’ll help if Cal Baptist can figure out a way to get Big 12 defensive player of the year Flory Bidunga in foul trouble.

Matchup I hope we see: Duke-Michigan State in the Elite Eight

I know some people are tired of this matchup, but I am not among them. The Spartans have had turnover issues all season, but Duke starting point guard Caleb Foster is out indefinitely with a broken foot and center Patrick Ngongba has been dealing with foot soreness. This was a 6-point game in December, when Cameron Boozer went off for 18 points and 15 rebounds; I’d love to see Tom Izzo’s defensive adjustments for the presumptive national player of the year.

West

Final Four pick: Arizona

As I said above, I’m all aboard the Wildcats’ train. See you in Indy.

Most stressful decision: Arizona over Wisconsin in Sweet 16

Wisconsin has some of the most impressive wins of anyone this season: at Michigan, at Illinois, vs. Michigan State and at Purdue. Coach Greg Gard is an excellent tactician and will have a terrific game plan no matter the opponent. Relatedly, the Badgers won’t be intimidated by anyone. That can spell trouble for a top seed.

Best chance at an upset: Utah State over Villanova

Eight vs. nine matchups are a challenging pick no matter what — it’s basically a coin flip, odds-wise — but I’m extra torn on this one. Nova first-year coach Kevin Willard did a better job than I predicted at the beginning of the season, and Utah State’s success despite limited NIL makes me think the Aggies have some secret sauce. I’m picking Utah State, but I don’t feel great about it.

Matchup I hope we see: Gonzaga-Arizona in the Elite Eight.

I thought we’d get this in the Sweet 16, with the Zags as a 4 seed, but I’m happy for it to (potentially) be played with even higher stakes. Tommy Lloyd spent 22 years helping Mark Few turn Gonzaga from Cinderella into a blue blood before leaving for Tucson five years ago. They haven’t played each other as head coaches … yet.

South

Final Four pick: Houston.

I’m torn here. Picking against the defending champion, Florida, always feels risky. But ultimately, I’m giving the Cougars the edge because I love Kingston Flemings. If Houston needs him to put the Cougars on his back and deliver them to Indiana, he is more than capable. I also think playing in the best conference in the country gives Houston an advantage. The Cougars have been tested every night, and that will pay off come tournament time.

Most stressful decision: Vanderbilt over Nebraska

Everyone who didn’t go to Troy will pick the Huskers to finally win their first NCAA Tournament game, but could Nebraska actually go on a run? My hunch is no, mostly because that pressure could do them in.

Best chance at an upset: Texas A&M over Saint Mary’s?

I didn’t pick it, but “Bucky Ball” has gone extremely well in its first season at Texas A&M, and that could give Saint Mary’s problems. The Gaels have been one of the most successful programs in the country over the past decade, but that success has not translated to the NCAA Tournament. Does that curse continue?

Matchup I hope we see: A Houston-Florida rematch

I’d assume chief among those who want to see this happen is Emanuel Sharp, who would love a new March Madness memory to erase what happened in the final possession of the national championship game last season. I’d like a rematch because Kelvin Sampson is a defensive wizard, and it would be fun to see an updated game plan.

Midwest

Final Four pick: Michigan.

What the Wolverines did over the course of the season means more than their weird Big Ten tournament title game loss to Purdue. The fact is, they have looked like a Final Four lock since November. They have so much depth, anyone can take over on any given night — six players average 8.2 points or more — but I’m especially sold on them because of Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara.

Most stressful decision: What to do with Iowa State

I really like the Cyclones, who are so well coached, but I feel like every time I flip the TV to their game, Tamin Lipsey is limping to the locker room. Can his body hold up this month? They feel ripe for an early loss, and I’ve got my eye on their second-round game no matter the opponent.

Best chance at an upset: Tenth-seeded Santa Clara over seventh-seeded Kentucky

And it’s not close. Playing in their first NCAA Tournament in 30 years, the Broncos will be a popular upset pick, and rightfully so. They’re fun, fearless and love to hit the offensive glass, grabbing 13 offensive boards per game. This was the easiest game to pick in my entire bracket.

Matchup I hope we see: Alabama vs. Texas Tech in the second round

Mostly it’s because the Red Raiders and Grant McCasland haven’t gotten nearly enough credit for their response to losing All-American JT Toppin for the season. McCasland is an awesome defensive coach, and that’s really valuable in March. Also, Christian Anderson vs. Labaron Philon Jr.? Sign me up.