McNeese has the best odds of any double-digit seed to advance to the Sweet 16, per the Bracket Breakers model. Rick Osentoski / Imagn Images
Brackets don’t stop after the first round, so neither do we. As per tradition, please enjoy Slingshot’s upset odds for every potential second-round game with at least a five-seed difference. We’ve added a few notes from Slingshot’s similar-games database for matchups that triggered interesting results.
Second-round matchups impacted by First Four results will be added the morning after each game.
East Region
Potential MatchupUpset Chance
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 Ohio State
15.6%
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 TCU
10.1%
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 16 Siena
14.4%
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 16 Siena
11.6%
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist
8.4%
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa*
33.3%
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 11 South Florida**
34.2%
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
12.2%
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 7 UCLA
23.4%
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 10 UCF
24.8%
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 15 Furman
12.5%
No. 10 UCF vs. No. 15 Furman
12%
* 3 of 8 most similar matchups ended in upsets; ** 4 of 10 most similar matchups ended in upsets
South Region
Potential Matchup
 Â
Upset Chance
 Â
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 8 Clemson
17.4%
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 9 Iowa
18.6%
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 16 Lehigh
18.5%
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 16 Prairie View
4.3%
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 16 Lehigh
14.4%
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 16 Prairie View
9.7%
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Troy
18.3%
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 12 McNeese*
34.9%
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 11 VCU**
25.8%
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 14 Penn
17.4%
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s
22.7%
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
21.2%
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 15 Idaho
8.9%
No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 15 Idaho
18.5%
* 3 of 9 most similar matchups ended in upsets; ** 3 of 8 most similar matchups ended in upsets
Midwest Region
Potential Matchup
 Â
Upset Chance
 Â
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 8 Georgia
10.3%
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
9.9%
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 16 UMBC
7.3%
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 16 Howard
17.3%
No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 16 UMBC
19%
No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 16 Howard
10.5%
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 12 Akron
20%
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Hofstra
17.3%
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 11 Miami (OH)
6.8%
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 11 SMU
28.6%
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Wright State
9.6%
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Kentucky*
6.5%
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Santa Clara**
7.4%
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Tennessee State
6.5%
No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 15 Tennessee State
7.3%
* Only 1 of the 10 most similar matchups ended in upsets; none of the 10 most similar matchups ended in upsets
West Region
Potential Matchup
 Â
Upset Chance
 Â
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 8 Villanova
13.3%
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 9 Utah State
19.7%
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 16 LIU
13%
No. 9 Utah State vs. No. 16 LIU
10%
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 12 High Point
30.8%
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Hawaii
20%
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Texas
22.5%
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 NC State
19.9%
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State
9.7%
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 7 Miami (FL)
17%
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 10 Missouri
16.6%
No. 7 Miami (FL) vs. No. 15 Queens
7.6%
No. 10 Missouri vs. No. 15 Queens
18.5%
Mar 18, 2026
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