Analysts have been predicting the Pittsburgh Steelers to have a losing season for the past few years. That’s understandable considering their quarterback situation. However, they’ve defied the odds every year, not finishing with a losing record since the 2003 season. Much of the credit for that was given to Mike Tomlin, but with him gone, analyst Nick Wright is confidently picking the Steelers to have fewer than nine wins in 2026.

“I am going under [8.5 wins],” Wright said recently on his What’s Wright podcast. “I think they will miss Tomlin. I think the fact that Aaron Rodgers is making them do this utter farce of, ‘I haven’t decided if I’m coming back yet…’

“What, are they gonna start Will Howard? They didn’t sign Tua [Tagovailoa]. They didn’t sign Kyler [Murray]. They didn’t sign Malik Willis. The Steelers should grow a spine and sign Kirk Cousins.”

The Steelers will miss Tomlin. Nobody within the organization got rid of him. He chose to step down, and players felt like they failed him. No matter Tomlin’s flaws, he was one of the best head coaches in the league. He routinely raised the Steelers’ floor.

However, it might’ve been time for a change. That’s not to say that Tomlin’s message was getting stale, but the Steelers have felt stuck. They’ve finished the last three seasons the exact same way, going 10-7 and losing in the first round of the playoffs. While Tomlin was a good coach, everything runs its course in the NFL.

Still, the Steelers didn’t replace Tomlin with a fresh-faced, up-and-coming coach. Instead, they brought in Mike McCarthy, who’s previously been a head coach with two different teams. He’s similar to Tomlin in that he should raise the Steelers’ floor, but their ceiling with him is in question.

McCarthy has had a lot of NFL success, but his last two stints as a head coach didn’t start off with a bang. He went 8-8 in his first year with the Green Bay Packers. More than a decade later he finished his first season with the Dallas Cowboys at 6-10.

History could repeat itself for McCarthy in Pittsburgh. It’s taken him a season before the wins start pouring in. While the Steelers don’t want to rebuild, many fans likely wouldn’t be too upset at a one-year step back. Perhaps that could put the team in position to find its next franchise quarterback. That’s been the monkey on the Steelers’ back for years, and it could hurt them more now with Tomlin gone.