It is NFL draft season — the time of ever-changing opinions.

For much of the NCAA season, it felt like Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson were neck and neck in the quarterback power rankings. But as the year unfolded, Mendoza set himself apart. He kept winning and delivering in the clutch while Simpson’s production declined down the stretch.

Now, Mendoza is the clear favorite to be selected by the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1 overall.

Despite that, though, Simpson is back in the conversation.

Some analysts and talent evaluators have begun to swing in Simpson’s favor, viewing him as a more capable player at the next level.

With the New York Jets still searching for their long-term QB and holding two first-round selections in this year’s draft, the question naturally follows: Should Gang Green take a swing on Simpson with their second first-round selection at No. 16?

Here are three reasons why it would be a massive mistake.

1. Patience over desperation

Fans must understand the importance of getting the quarterback decision right, whether that comes in this year’s draft or next year’s.

The Jets’ first season under head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey was brutal, ending with a 3-14 record. Glenn in particular won’t be able to survive another three-win season. Mougey, despite making some excellent moves over his tenure, cannot afford to blow his first early quarterback selection.

That decision will decide their job security and ultimately their legacies in New York.

For that reason, patience is key.

The Jets are not in a position to force the quarterback pick this year. Jets fans are tired of hearing it, but the 2027 quarterback class is widely viewed as deeper and stronger overall. Also, keep in mind that the Jets have three first-round selections in that draft.

Getting it right matters far more than getting it done quickly.

2. Simpson doesn’t fit Frank Reich’s expected scheme

Aside from his ability to attack the middle of the field at a high level, Simpson is not an ideal fit with Frank Reich’s expected offensive scheme.

At 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds, Simpson is undersized for the position, and especially for a Reich-led system that has historically preferred bigger, more traditional pocket passers like Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz. Reich’s brief stint in Carolina only reinforced that statement, as an undersized rookie quarterback from Alabama, Bryce Young struggled mightily in his system.

Beyond the physical profile, Simpson has shown flashes of being a high-end player, particularly thanks to his excellent processing, but he was far too inconsistent throughout the year.

Simpson has yet to show the pocket presence and down-to-down accuracy that are crucial in the NFL, particularly in a Reich-led offense. When the pocket collapses, things can unravel quickly for the Alabama product. Ball security was a glaring issue last season, as he fumbled the ball four times when plays broke down.

3. Only 15 college starts

If the Jets select Simpson in the first round, they will be betting on him to become a massive outlier.

Across four college seasons, Simpson made just 15 starts, all of which came in 2025. That lack of experience is very important. Over the past decade, only three quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round with 15 or fewer college starts: Anthony Richardson, Mitchell Trubisky, and Dwayne Haskins.

The results have been uninspiring… to put it lightly.

Richardson has completed 50.6% of his passes over three NFL seasons, throwing 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and spent the entire 2025 season as the Indianapolis Colts’ backup. Trubisky has settled into a backup role after failing to become the franchise quarterback in Chicago. Haskins, whose career was tragically cut short, struggled at the NFL level.

That doesn’t mean Simpson should be completely ruled out as a first-round option, but the lack of starts is certainly a factor teams around the league will weigh.

Quarterback evaluation is largely about sample size. When NFL teams have more tape on a player, they are able to foresee a clearer trajectory for that signal-caller at the next level.

As the 2025 season progressed, Simpson’s results began to trend in the wrong direction. Over his first 11 games, Simpson averaged 266.7 passing yards and two touchdowns while completing 66.9% of his passes. Throughout the season’s final four games, those numbers dropped to 158.3 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game on 57.1% passing.

That late-season regression, coupled with the lack of starting experience, raises even more questions. As defenses gathered more film on him, Simpson was far less consistent, and his efficiency dropped.

That is where patience comes back into play.

Prospects rise and fall every year with more reps at the college level. At this time last year, quarterbacks like Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier were viewed as potential headliners for the 2026 class. After their iffy 2025 seasons, though, both are now projected as Day 2 or 3 prospects.

With the way Simpson was trending down the stretch, there is a good chance that another season at the college level would expose him, too, as a Day 2 or 3 prospect.

It’s one of many reasons why the Jets would be wise to pass on Simpson in the first round.