The NFL Draft can be a bit of a crapshoot. A lot of work goes into studying the players, from scouting games to gathering background information from coaches, teammates, and family members to reviewing medical histories.

It’s an imperfect science, and it leads to unexpected hits and many misses year after year.

With 12 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers will have a lot of bites at the apple to land some big-time talent in late April. They could have some hits, and they could — and probably will — have some misses.

Pro Football Focus is trying to help with the misses. In a piece highlighting nine prospects that should be “buyer beware,” four of them are players the Steelers have been connected to in some capacity so far in the pre-draft process.

That includes Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, Georgia inside linebacker CJ Allen and Washington cornerback Tacario Davis.

With Allar, all the tools are there. But he comes up small in big games and is coming off an injury.

For PFF’s Dalton Wasserman, the tools are tantalizing, but the film and the stats tell another story.

“Despite his elite arm strength, Allar posted at least a 3% big-time throw rate in just one of his three seasons as Penn State’s starter. His 56.5% accurate throw rate, per PFF’s quarterback charting, during that time also lags well behind other top prospects, both this year and in years past,” Wasserman writes of the PSU QB. “Allar certainly has stellar tools, but he needs major development in his footwork and ball placement if he is going to carve out a career as an NFL starter.”

He has plenty of experience coming out of Penn State, but there’s still a lot of work to do with the former 5-star quarterback. Landing in the right place with the proper coaching and in the right scheme could do wonders for him. He has the prototype build for the position and has all the tools.

Now it’s about completing the puzzle with him. That could be in Pittsburgh, where he could sit and learn behind Aaron Rodgers for a season and develop under Mike McCarthy.

With Branch, the concerns center on the fact that more than half of his 81 receptions last season at Georgia came behind the line of scrimmage. Plus, he did most of his damage after the catch, rarely running downfield on routes.

He’s a dynamic weapon with the football, but will that translate consistently to the NFL?

The Steelers reportedly had a Pro Day dinner with Branch, so the interest is there, especially after they held a formal meeting with him at the NFL Combine, too.

Allen’s name is one that has been tossed around for the Steelers in the first round at No. 21 overall, especially in the midst of the Patrick Queen trade rumors, and the fact that McCarthy and GM Omar Khan were at the Georgia Pro Day.

For Wasserman, the concerns with Allen are his work in coverage and his size.

“First and foremost, Allen is so highly thought of because of his instincts and tackling ability in the run game. His 91.6 PFF run-defense grade over the past two seasons ranks fourth among FBS linebackers. He also missed just five tackles in run defense in that span,” Wasserman writes. “However, Allen isn’t a splashy playmaker, and his value is much more rooted in his ability to simply not be in the wrong spot and make tackles.

“He is also shaky at best in coverage, having earned sub-60.0 PFF coverage grades over the past two seasons while reeling in just one career interception. Allen is undersized and has yet to do any athletic testing, which is a concern, given that his tape shows a player who can make plenty of plays within his range.”

That’s all pretty concerning, especially the lack of testing to answer some questions. As a first-round linebacker, that feels like a reach, and it’s something the Steelers should avoid at the moment.

Then there’s Davis, who came in for a pre-draft visit recently with the Steelers.

He has great size and length and has elite-level speed. So what’s the catch?

“He spent three seasons as a starter in college, and his potential is off the charts, but he wasn’t able to put together consistent production over the past two years,” Wasserman writes. “Being so heavily reliant on man-coverage ability is a dangerous game. Davis can look at current Philadelphia Eagle Riq Woolen as a similar prospect with a high-end outcome, but he will need to refine his technique to become a consistently reliable starter.”

The Steelers played a lot of man in recent years, but that could change — and probably will — under new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. Still, that size and speed from Davis at the cornerback position are rare and make him all the more intriguing.

He’d get a chance to develop behind Joey Porter Jr., Jamel Dean and Asante Samuel Jr. at the very least in 2026.