Fluke had a good run.
Not as good as J.K. Dobbins. But a good run nonetheless.
But the time has come to call Merriam-Webster and retire the word from the dictionary because clearly it is misunderstood.
When Dobbins re-signed with the Broncos earlier this month, he popped off on social media when someone questioned paying him for “seven games a season.”
“Go be a fan of a different team; lame (bleep) dude,” Dobbins tweeted. “And don’t try to turn around when I shut down the fluke injury (bleep) up this year.”
The reality is that it would be a fluke if Dobbins stayed healthy.
He has never played a full season in the NFL. He has started 30 of 64 games because of knee, Achilles and foot injuries. He missed the Broncos’ final nine games last season after a hip-drop tackle hurt his foot.
Here’s the thing. I have not interacted with a single person on social media, email or in the community who doesn’t love Dobbins. Or what he did last season. He ranked fifth in the league in rushing when he was sidelined. He emerged as a force in the second halves of games and against stacked boxes.
Dobbins averaged almost a full yard over expected on his carries, and was beloved in the building for his leadership and passion.
So, it was no surprise the Broncos ran it back at running back, especially after they balked at Travis Etienne Jr.’s asking price and became a stalking horse in negotiations given his desire to return home to Louisiana.
Appearing recently on NFL Network, Dobbins remained delusional about his medical files. His optimism is ideal for the Broncos.
But if the team does not add a running back in the draft it will be a mistake.
First, hear Dobbins out.
“We’ve got a great O-line, we’ve got everything. We’ve got an embarrassment of riches on this team of talent,” said Dobbins, who received $8 million guaranteed in his new contract. “I’m excited. I really am, because, call it what it is, I got hurt, I missed the last, what, seven games in the regular season. I’m fresh. I’m gonna be fresh and I’m gonna be pissed off because I’m tired of the unfortunate stuff. I know that I can do it. It’s gonna happen this year. It’s gonna be great.”
Dobbins should believe he will become a stranger to the trainer’s room. That it is his turn for good luck. He deserves it.
The Broncos, though, cannot use hope as a strategy. That is what happened in the AFC Championship Game. Remember how that turned out?
The Broncos were awful on the ground. While R.J. Harvey’s slump continued, the offensive line was not blameless, picking the wrong time to play its worst game.
Denver cannot hinge its offensive balance and performance on Dobbins’ health. It is not fair to the team or Dobbins.
The Broncos have to draft a running back. Filling out the offseason roster with Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie is fine. But if both make the team, then something has gone horribly wrong.
Dobbins, a fighter who has overcome injuries that would have ended careers, will open the season as the starter. The Broncos need a closer, and not an in-case-of-emergency-break-glass option.
There is a possibility Harvey, who became a weapon in the passing game, shows up in training camp and is more aggressive between the tackles. But he has to prove it.
Dobbins turns 28 in December. Even if the Broncos trust Dobbins to become durable, picking his successor is logical.
We all know what needs to be done. Couple “El Toro” with Geico.
There is a realistic possibility that Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price and Arkansas’ Mike Washington Jr. will be available when Denver selects at No. 62.
If Price is on the board, the Broncos should not pass on him. They like him, Price believes, based on his impressive interview at the NFL Combine.
Jeremiyah Love might be the best player in the draft. He split time with Price. That should tell you all you need to know.
Former Broncos tackle Ryan Harris, who serves as an analyst for Irish games, calls Price a “minotaur, an absolute horse who is going to have a great career.”
Based on college tape and combine performances, Price projects as a plus-NFL starter with a higher ceiling than Harvey. He brings size, and is capable of getting dirty work yards, while remaining elusive in space.
Does he project as a three-down starter? Not yet.
As a rookie, he would not need to fill that role. Harvey can play on passing downs. Price could provide a way to keep Dobbins available, and also brings special teams value in the return game, which will be needed if McLaughlin or Badie don’t make the final cut.
Washington works, too. He has the speed to turn any carry into a gash play, and at 223 pounds, he is bigger than any back on the roster. But will he go north-and-south with conviction?
This question hangs over Washington and Harvey. And it is also the reason Sean Payton cut Audric Estime last summer, failing to convince him to run over defenders instead of around them.
The truth of this season lies not in the defense, Jaylen Waddle’s fit, a grizzly bear schedule or Bo Nix’s ankle. It is in the backfield.
The only thing standing between the Broncos and a Super Bowl run is the ability to consistently run.
Dobbins can do it. He has shown it. Trusting him for 17 games, however, is too dangerous. His misfortune derailed last season. And there was nothing fluky about it.
The Broncos need Dobbins. But not as much as they need insurance.
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