The Cowboys are akin to NFL’s tallest short person, ranked as the top below-average team, according to ESPN’s initial FPI rankings for the 2025 season. After all of the activities of free agency and the draft, and post-draft free agency, Dallas has somehow landed in pretty much the same spot they left 2024.
Dallas finished last season with a lame duck head coach, without star quarterback Dak Prescott, with no viable passing game option outside of an immensely injured CeeDee Lamb, and with a defense decimated by injuries. And while they lost future Hall of Famer Zack Martin along the OL, anyone being honest with themselves know the retired nine-time All-Pro was a shell of his former self.
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Since, they’ve replaced Mike McCarthy with Brian Schottenheimer, Mike Zimmer with Matt Eberflus, added a first-round guard in Tyler Booker to replace Martin, brought in George Pickens to compliment Lamb, and added a ton of defensive pieces to the equation. Despite these apparent upgrades, the Football Power Index does not think they made tangible gains on the rest of the NFC, ranking just 10th among its teams and No. 18 overall.
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0): +5.5
Kansas City Chiefs (0-0): +5.4
Los Angeles Rams (0-0): +1.8
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0): +0.1
Arizona Cardinals (0-0): -1.0
Indianapolis Colts (0-0): -1.9
Las Vegas Raiders (0-0): -2.0
New York GIants (0-0): -3.9
New York Jets (0-0): -4.7
Clevelad Browns (0-0): -4.8
Tennessee Titans (0-0): -5.0
New Orleans Saints (0-0): -5.2
The Cowboys rank behind the entire NFC North, and far behind the two teams which finished above them in the NFC East. Philadelphia, the reigning, defending champions check in at No. 1, while the Washington Commanders are ranked No. 6.
FPI is a rating based on running 10,000 simulations, and “is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.”
In the preseason, FPI uses a number of predictive factors to project future team strength. The main component of preseason FPI is Vegas expectations; the expected win totals and money lines for each team are an accurate representation of predicted team strength and provide a strong baseline for teams entering the season.
But relying solely on Vegas has its flaws, and more information is needed to determine what percentage of a team’s projected win total can be attributed to its offense, defense and special teams units — the components that make up FPI.
Therefore, other information included in the preseason ratings include: previous years’ efficiencies for each unit, number of returning starters (on offense and defense), coaching/coordinator/quarterback changes and quarterback injuries.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: ESPN: Cowboys slotted woeful No. 10 in NFC in latest FPI rankings