On one side of the Final Four are the two best teams in the country, according to advanced metrics: Arizona and Michigan.
On the other side is a Connecticut team going for its third national championship in four years — something not done since John Wooden’s UCLA teams — and an Illinois team that could claim its the best program to never win a title.
Yes, it’s shaping up to be an epic weekend in Indianapolis.
No. 2 UConn and No. 3 Illinois will meet at 6:09 p.m. ET on Saturday. The winner will likely be an underdog against the victor of top-seeded Arizona and Michigan. But anything can happen — just look at how Sunday’s Elite Eight ended.
Our first look at the national semifinals:
Favorites to win the men’s tournament Make
Second
RoundMake
Sweet
16Make
Elite
EightMake
Final
FourMake
Champ.Win
Champ.1 
Michigan✓✓✓✓50%34%1 
Arizona✓✓✓✓50%34%3 
Illinois✓✓✓✓57%20%2 
UConn✓✓✓✓43%12% Updated March 29, 2026 at 7:28 p.m. E.T.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois
When: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET
Line: Illinois -2.5
The Athletic’s projection: Illinois, 57 percent
First look: For 39 minutes and 59 seconds, it looked like Illinois would face Duke in Indianapolis. Then UConn guard Braylon Mullins hit the 35-foot shot of a lifetime with 0.4 seconds left to lift the Huskies back to the Final Four and into a rematch with the Fighting Illini.
In what seems like a year ago — and technically, it is — UConn had no issues in a 74-61 win against Illinois in a Black Friday matinee at Madison Square Garden. It was the Illini’s fewest points scored in a game this year and Keaton Wagler wasn’t, well, Keaton Wagler quite yet.
But there’s no underestimating UConn or its phenomenal run under coach Dan Hurley. The Huskies are 17-1 in the NCAA Tournament over the last four seasons with three Final Fours. Their only loss was by 2 points last year to eventual champion Florida. This year, UConn has beaten Florida, Kansas, Michigan State and Duke. The Huskies are not an underdog, despite the line. They’re top dog and they know it.
Illinois (28-8) lost four overtime games over the regular season’s final month, which led to questions about its toughness, but the Illini have turned it on in the tournament. The Illini beat all four NCAA Tournament opponents by double digits, including a physical battle with Houston in the Sweet 16 and a duel with Big Ten rival Iowa to reach the Final Four.
All five UConn starters average in double figures, led by center Tarris Reed Jr., who puts up 14.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Forward Alex Karaban averages 13.4 points while guard Silas Demaury Jr. averages 10.4 points and 6.1 assists.
For Illinois, Wagler earned Big Ten freshman of the year honors with 17.9 points per game, 5.0 rebounds and team highs in assists (155) and steals (34). Perhaps most impressively, Wagler sank 85 3-pointers at 40.7 percent.
Illinois has one of the nation’s tallest teams, which it used to outrebound Iowa by 17. Four of its eight primary rotational players come from southeastern Europe. Five players average double figures in scoring, and junior guard Andrej Stojakovic — son of longtime NBA star Peja Stojakovic — is a mismatch for any guard or forward. Twins Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic stand 7-foot-1 and 7-2, respectively, while forward David Mirkovic averages 13.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game.
OH MY GOODNESS 😱
UCONN LEADSSSS UNBELIEVABLE #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/IPX2JWiw0b
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 29, 2026
What’s at stake? Illinois and UConn have played four times, including in the Elite Eight two years ago. After a competitive first half, the Huskies throttled the Illini, 77-52. UConn shot 51.7 percent; Illinois shot 25.4 percent.
UConn seeks its seventh NCAA title, all of which have come since 1999. Hurley and the Huskies won back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024.
Alongside Houston, no program is better historically without an NCAA title than Illinois, and perhaps none are unluckier. The Illini have the second-most Final Four appearances without a championship and three of those losses came by 2 points. Their sole title-game appearance in 2005 featured the only No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup since 1975, when the top-ranked Illini lost 75-70 to North Carolina. No fan base wants to sip champagne watching “One Shining Moment” quite like the one in Champaign, Ill.
Reason to be excited: Illinois might have the home-crowd advantage, but UConn has Hurley. We’ll see which is more important. — Scott Dochterman
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan
When: Saturday, following UConn-Illinois
Line: Michigan -1.5
The Athletic’s projection: 50-50
First look: A dream matchup of teams that both spent time ranked No. 1 this season and set program records for victories. The Wildcats (36-2) and Wolverines (35-3) present mirror images in some ways. The Big 12 and Big Ten regular-season champs, they both rely on dominant inside play anchored by 7-foot European centers. For Arizona, it’s 7-2 junior Motiejus Krivas. The Lithuanian averages 10.4 points and 8.2 rebounds. Michigan’s Aday Mara, a 7-3 junior from Spain, puts up 11.8 points and 2.6 blocks per game.
The Arizona and Michigan offenses rank fourth and sixth, respectively, in adjusted efficiency, and both run through veterans: Arizona has the Big 12 player of the year in Jaden Bradley, a 6-3 senior guard. Michigan has the Big Ten player of the year in Yaxel Lendeborg, a 6-9 senior forward.
The teams also rank No. 1 and No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Cats bring major firepower in a trio of freshmen: German forward Ivan Kharchenkov, forward Koa Peat and leading scorer Brayden Burries.
Michigan starts no freshmen. Sophomore forward Morez Johnson Jr., an Illinois transfer, leads the Big Ten in shooting percentage and rates as the Wolverines’ top rebounder. Guard Elliot Cadeau, a North Carolina transfer, leads Michigan in assists.
Both teams rank in the top four nationally in scoring margin. Both sit among the top 10 in field goal percentage. Both are top-20 rebounding squads.
Arizona has won 13 consecutive games since a pair of February losses to Kansas and Texas Tech. To reach Indianapolis, the Cats won four tournament games by an average of 20.5 points. For Michigan, the average margin in the tournament was 22.5, capped by a 95-62 drubbing of Tennessee on Sunday — the largest margin in a regional final since Michigan in 1989, en route to its last national championship.
Fifth-year Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd, 51, coached in two national championship games as a 20-year Gonzaga assistant. Michigan’s Dusty May, 49, came to the school two years ago after coaching Florida Atlantic to the Final Four. Neither has won a national championship.
What’s at stake? Arizona last played in the Final Four in 2001. This marks its fifth trip and first under a coach other than Lute Olson. Its lone title came in 1997. Michigan has just the one title as well, 37 years ago, and it will make a ninth Final Four appearance. The most recent came in 2018, when it lost to Villanova in the national title game.
High expectations followed both of these teams after their hot starts. Arizona won its first 23 games. Michigan scored more than 100 points seven times before Jan. 1 and blew out the likes of Auburn, Gonzaga and USC by 30 or more points.
Arizona has won eight of 10 meetings with Michigan, most recently in 2021. They’ve never played in the NCAA Tournament.
Reason to be excited: These might be the two best teams in the country. They’ve certainly played like it in the tournament. — Mitch Sherman