It’s a make-or-break season for Lukas Van Ness, and it could be his last in Green Bay.

The Packers have until May 1 to make a decision on Van Ness’ fifth-year option. Doing so would add a fully guaranteed $13.75 million year to his deal, keeping him under contract through the 2027 season. If Green Bay declines, Van Ness will become a free agent next offseason.

It’s a tough decision, but ESPN’s Jason Wilde believes it’s a foregone conclusion that the Packers will decline to exercise the option.

“Can we agree that the Packers will not pick up the fifth-year option on Lukas Van Ness?” Wilde asked on his ESPN Milwaukee radio show.

Co-host and former Packers tackle Mark Tauscher agreed.

“So that makes this season a contract year for him,” Wilde continued. “His four seasons on his rookie deal, he will have played one year in a 3-4 under Joe Barry, two years in a 4-3, one of which he played with a broken thumb all year, the other in which he missed five, six games with a foot injury, with Jeff Hafley. But now he’s back in a 3-4. This is also someone who never started a game at Iowa.”

Packers left with a difficult decision on Lukas Van Ness’ future

The Packers could look at it from the opposite view. Exercising the option is effectively signing Van Ness to a one-year, $13.75 million extension. That’s not bad value for a pass-rusher who has shown flashes of potential, especially last year.

However, it’s fully guaranteed, and that’s the potential issue. Van Ness hasn’t consistently shown enough throughout his Packers tenure. The moments are there, but he hasn’t put it all together yet.

The Packers famously passed on cornerback Christian Gonzalez and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who boast a combined three Pro Bowl selections and two All-Pro nods, to select Van Ness at No. 13 overall in 2023. That decision hasn’t aged well.

Van Ness showed some promise last year. Per PFF, he set a new career best in pressures with 27 despite missing eight games. However, his sack total dropped to a career low of 1.5.

Green Bay’s decision to trade Rashan Gary and let Kingsley Enagbare walk in free agency creates an opening for Van Ness.

Even if the Packers draft another pass-rusher in the early rounds, Van Ness should get a chance to start early in the season while Micah Parsons recovers from a torn ACL. The Iowa product has just two career starts in three years, but his chance will come this year.

In all honesty, Wilde is right. Not only does it seem unlikely that the Packers will pick up Van Ness’ option, but they shouldn’t.

If Van Ness enjoys a breakout season, great. Hand him a multi-year extension. If not, the Packers can safely part ways in free agency next spring without needing to worry about an incoming $13.75 million cap hit.

It’s over to Van Ness to determine which outcome becomes reality. He needs to finally deliver on his first-round potential. It’s now or never, and the Packers face the potential harsh reality of moving on from a top-15 draft pick after his rookie deal.