One of the talking points of the offseason is the improvement of the offense. We have focused most of our attention on the offensive line, running game, and the quarterback. A topic that hasn’t been mentioned much is the second wide receiver slot. There are a few candidates to take over the slot with Christian Kirk signing with the 49ers. Obviously, everyone is looking forward to the return of Tank Dell and the workout videos certainly create some help, but the most likely candidate may be a rookie entering his second season.
The Texans might not be known for much as a franchise. That is certainly true in comparison with the blue blood franchises. However, there are two positions that the Texans could be known for so far. The first is obviously defensive end/edge rusher. It started with Mario Williams, graduated to J.J. Watt, and now includes Will Anderson. The second is wide receiver. Andre Johnson is in the Hall of Fame. Deandre Hopkins might be joining him some day. Finally, you have Nico Collins who has had three consecutive 1000 yard plus seasons.
When the Texans drafted Jayden Higgins, many people compared him to Collins physically. We could go into a deep dive historically on wide receivers, but suffice it to say, most do not dominate right away. They do not have the immediate impact that running backs do. On cue, Higgins did some good things (six touchdowns) but had a relatively pedestrian 41 catches and 525 yards. So, was he a bust?
Obviously, no draft pick should be based on the first season. That is including every position and mostly including wide receivers. The key will be what happens between year one and year two. Predicting Hall of Fame performance is beyond stupid. Higgins wasn’t as good as Johnson or Hopkins when they were rookies. So, odds are good that he won’t ever reach their level. Similarly, Nico Collins was not Nico Collins until year three.
If we want to project his performance for 2026 we should not look at the raw numbers. What we should look at is the rate of improvement for the three franchise legends from year one to year two. If we take the aggregate rate of improvement from those three and use that to project Higgins’ numbers we might get a decent idea of what he might do next season.
TargetsCatchesYardsTDAndre Johnson119669764Deandre Hopkins91528022Nico Collins60334461Aggregate90507412TargetsCatchesYardsTDAndre Johnson1387911426Deandre Hopkins1277612106Nico Collins66374812Aggregate110649445
As you can see, there is a significant difference between the first two and the last one. Collins obviously needs at least three or four more seasons like the last three before we can even whisper him in the same sentence as Johnson and Hopkins. However, you can see with all three that there was some level of improvement between year one and year two.
We look for the aggregate because we cannot possibly predict growth. Collins may not have grown much through no fault of his own. Those were the ugly years when the offense was sputtering to say the least. He has certainly seen things pick up since C.J. Stroud took over at quarterback, so Higgins easily surpassed what Collins was able to accomplish in year one.
Higgins is not going for 100+ targets. For one, he is clearly the number two target in an offense that also features Collins, Dell, and Dalton Schultz. Plus, with the addition of David Montgomery, they are likely to run the ball more than they ran it last year. So, we will apply the rate of growth to his targets, receptions, and yards. If we apply the same rate of growth to his touchdowns we will get a ridiculous sum, so we will apply a more modest estimate there.
TargetsCatchesYardsTDs202568415256202683526417
No one is going to be measuring Higgins’ bust for Canton, but when you add that to an offense that features Collins, Schultz, and Dell then you have the makings of a pretty decent offense. We should keep in mind that the Texans don’t hurl it around the yard like other teams do, so the expectations of two 1000 yard receivers is probably a bit pie in the sky, However, a 50 catch, 600 yard season sounds reasonable and would not be bad production for a second round pick in year two.