PHOENIX — UCLA and South Carolina will meet in Sunday’s national championship game, staging a rematch from a regular-season meeting.

This will be just the fifth time these teams have met with UCLA winning 77-62 on Nov. 24.

So, who will win on Sunday? What is the matchup to watch? And who are the X-factors?

The Athletic breaks it all down, with predictions from its women’s basketball reporters at the Final Four.

Who are the coaches?Dawn Staley, No. 1 seed South Carolina

The 18-year Gamecocks coach has turned the program into the newest dynasty in women’s college basketball. Before she arrived, South Carolina had made eight NCAA Tournaments appearances since 1981, and its best finish had been the Elite Eight in 2001-02.

Now, Staley is one of the best coaches in basketball, not just women’s basketball, and is going to her fourth national championship in five years. She’s 2-1 in the title games, with her lone loss coming last year to UConn.

The Gamecocks advanced by getting revenge on UConn, which had beating them in the 2025 title game, with a 62-48 victory on Friday night.

Cori Close, No. 1 seed UCLA

A lot has changed in a year for Close. The 15-year head coach went from a meme after UCLA’s blowout loss to UConn in the semifinals to emotional validation after the Bruins’ 51-44 win over Texas on Friday night.

She will coach in her first national championship game on Sunday as she searches to build UCLA into a consistent Final Four. Working in Close’s favor is the fact that she has a team many consider one of the most talented in years, with potentially five 2026 WNBA Draft picks.

Matchup to watchSouth Carolina’s Joyce Edwards vs. UCLA’s Angela Dugalić

UCLA did a masterful job of shutting down Texas’ best player, Madison Booker, on Friday, holding the elite scorer to just 6 points on 3-of-23 shooting. Whether the Bruins can duplicate that performance against Edwards, South Carolina’s leading scorer, may be the difference in Sunday’s championship.

Edwards presents a different challenge than Booker, though. Edwards is a 6-foot-3 forward who can play with her back to the basket, run the floor in transition and take games over on the glass. UCLA will have to make the decision early on whether it wants to go with its small lineup that puts Gabriela Jacquez at forward, or go big to allow Dugalić to guard Edwards.

South Carolina also has a decision to make. On Friday, the Gamecocks had some success going with a four-guard lineup, but with a size advantage on Sunday, could they stay with their bigger lineup?

It seems like whichever team decides to make the change first may dictate the game, at least early on.

X-factorsMadina Okot, South Carolina, senior, forward

Okot is such a fascinating player because she’s an extremely talented 6-6 center. But she’s so new to basketball, playing just one year at Mississippi State before this year, that she can be inconsistent.

She struggled at times against UConn, tallying 6 points and nine rebounds, but her presence on Sunday could be major, especially if UCLA continues to switch screens and allow 6-7 center Lauren Betts to defend guards on the perimeter. That could lead to some mismatches for Okot, or at least a chance at some easy rebounds. For a player with 22 double-doubles this season, that would work in South Carolina’s favor.

Kiki Rice, UCLA, senior, guard

It would be easy to select Betts here, but for the Bruins to be successful, they must get effective guard play from Rice. She will likely be guarded by South Carolina’s Raven Johnson.

Though Johnson had just 2 points and four turnovers on Friday, she is one of the Gamecocks best defensive weapons, especially with her ability to guard different positions. Rice, who is a likely first-round draft pick, has enough talent to impact the game despite her defensive assignment.

Though Rice struggled from the field (2 of 5) on Friday, she’s been solid in this tournament, averaging 13 points, five rebounds and 2.6 assists. She could be a major difference-maker for the Bruins to win a national championship.

Kiki Rice’s guard play will be essential against the Gamecocks. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

What’s at stake?For South Carolina

The Gamecocks are looking to continue their dominance in the 2020s. They are playing in their fourth championship this decade, but a win would give Staley a third title in the same span. Much like UConn has completely dominated generations of the sport, the Gamecocks have been establishing themselves as the next dynasty. Sunday is their chance to continue that bid.

For UCLA

The Bruins already avenged their only defeat of the season, beating Texas 51-44 on Friday and are now looking to make more history. This will be their first championship trip and a win would make UCLA the second West Coast champion in the 2000s, Stanford won in 2021.

Predictions

South Carolina 71, UCLA 66: UCLA has the most talent, but this one is simple to me. I trust Dawn Staley more than I trust Cori Close. — Cameron Teague Robinson

UCLA 75, South Carolina 69: Betts is a difference-maker inside, and UCLA will make enough 3-pointers to pull away late. — Chantel Jennings

South Carolina 70, UCLA 63: The Gamecocks are fired up and already have gone farther than many expected. Staley’s experience plus Agot Makeer’s hot hand will help South Carolina go the distance. — Grace Raynor

UCLA 67, South Carolina 59: Against a team that doesn’t press full court, the Bruins’ No. 1 ranked offense will lead them to victory. — Sabreena Merchant

South Carolina 68, UCLA 61: The Bruins’ size and offensive talent create a difficult matchup for the Gamecocks. But after ruining UConn’s undefeated season, South Carolina will find a way on belief alone. — Jerry Brewer