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Good morning to everyone, but especially Joe Bowen, who called his final game in Toronto last night. What a legend — and a nice guy, too, even if you blatantly stole one of his most famous calls for your stupid blog. Holy Mackinaw, let’s get started …

Drew Doughty and the Los Angeles Kings are playoff-bound. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

Clarity

Last night, the playoff picture continued to come into focus, we had a potential Western Conference final preview in Edmonton, Patrick Kane got his 1,400th point and Jonathan Quick played his final NHL game. Take a breath and get ready to hop back over the boards, because there are three days left and lots to still figure out.

What’s left to play for?

We’re down to just three nights left on the regular season schedule, and our first batch of teams will hit 82 games tonight. Let’s get you caught up on what’s going to matter between now and the final buzzer on Thursday:

Playoff spots — We have our field of 16. The Flyers are in after beating the Hurricanes last night, eliminating both Columbus and Washington to clinch the East’s last invite. And the Kings followed that with a win of their own, which was enough to clinch a spot when the Predators lost in regulation.
Seeding and home ice — While they don’t matter as much as they once did, they’re still worth watching. Carolina wrapped up top spot in the East last night, while Buffalo has clinched the Atlantic. We know the No. 2 versus No. 3 matchups in both divisions — Flyers versus Penguins and Lightning versus Canadiens — but home ice is still up for grabs. The Central is locked down, with the Avalanche in top spot and the Stars hosting the Wild. But the Pacific is chaos, with the Knights, Oilers and Ducks all still in the running for top spot and the Kings within striking distance to move up out of the wild card. Yes, that means we could get Kings versus Oilers again. No, nobody wants this, but here we are.
Awards and scoring races — It looks like Connor McDavid will capture his sixth Art Ross, as he holds a four-point lead over Nikita Kucherov with one game left for both. But the Rocket Richard is still in play, with Nathan MacKinnon owning a one-goal lead on the late-charging Cole Caufield, who’s trying to become the first Canadiens player to win the award named after a franchise legend. MacKinnon also holds a game in hand, although without much to play for, the Avalanche may prefer to rest him. As for the voted awards, most are still up in the air, especially the Hart and Norris. Those are full-season awards, and the last few games shouldn’t count any more than the rest. But we know that’s not always how it works, and a strong closing push could kick up just enough recency bias to decide a close race.
Lottery odds — The Canucks have last place wrapped up, but just about all the other spots are in play. Also, it would be so much better if we had the Gold Plan and fans could cheer for their teams to win. Ah well.
Milestones and nice round numbers — McDavid needs two goals in the finale (assuming he plays) to get to 50 goals for just the second time. Martin Nečas and David Pastrňák are each one point away from 100. And tonight’s finale for the Avalanche should be Brock Nelson’s 1,000th career game. Also: Morgan Geekie needs one goal tonight to finish the season with exactly 39, which would be interesting.
That thing with the Mammoth — It’s still alive with two games to go. Nobody speak of it.
💡 Trivia Time

One thing you love to see from a star player at playoff time is consistent production. Well, one name stands out in that category.

This player is the leading scorer on one of the teams that’s already clinched a playoff spot. He’ll be making his eighth playoff run, and in the previous seven he’s finished with between 11 and 15 points each and every year. In fact, he had exactly 11 or 12 points in each of his first six postseasons, before a career-high 15 last year. Not bad at all, and plenty consistent, although it’s worth noting that this player has yet to win the Cup or even play in a Final.

Can you name the player we’re looking for? The answer will be down below.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Buffalo Sabres. (Joe Hrycych / Getty Images)

SpecificityLet’s get odd 🔮

I’ll be honest, it’s been a rough year down at oddly specific predictions headquarters. We’ve still got a few irons in the fire from this year’s list but will need some luck to hit on anything impressive. Some would take this as a sign to give up. Others would insist on doubling down. You can figure out which direction this is headed.

Here we go, with a half-dozen oddly specific predictions for the playoffs:

1. It seems like there’s always one series in which the underdog wins Game 1, everyone freaks out, and then the favorite rolls to an easy win in five games. Colorado Avalanche, we’re all looking in your direction.

2. The series everyone is most excited about is the one we’ve known would happen for weeks, if not months: Wild versus Stars. The bad news is that the series is going to end in a sweep. The slightly better news is that at least three of those games will go into overtime.

3. Speaking of overtime, we’re going to get a really long one this year. But not until one of the openers in Round 2.

4. The Pittsburgh Penguins have been a great story, but when it comes to their playoff run they’ll be here for a good time, not for a long time. But it will be a good time, because we’re going to get a Sidney Crosby hat trick — something we’ve only seen three times in his 200 career playoff games.

5. Only two Montreal Canadiens have scored a hat trick in the playoffs since their 1993 Cup win. (That would be Andrei Kostitsyn in 2010 and Rene Bourque in 2014, it goes without saying.) This year, they’ll match that total in one spring, as two different Canadiens pull off the Hab-trick.

6. Finally, you know I have to have something positive for everyone’s favorite team. So, let’s say that the Buffalo Sabres earn their first postseason win in 15 years when Josh Doan does something that his dad, Shane, managed only once in 21 seasons: scores an OT goal. Hey, there’s just something about those tough Buffalo wingers with monosyllabic names.

Coast to Coast

🔥 If you somehow missed it, Chris Pronger has finally told the story of what went wrong in Edmonton, and it’s … well, probably not what you thought.

👔 James Mirtle, Chris Johnston and Michael Russo’s survey of agents reveals some interesting thoughts about the league’s teams, including which are run the best and worst and which are the hardest to deal with.

👶 Scott Wheeler released his list of the 100 best drafted prospects in the world (one of which will be in the playoffs), plus his 20 top drafted goalies (reinforcements on the way for the Red Wings).

📋 Does your team have what it takes to win in the playoffs? Find out with our Cup contender checklists for the East and West.

🚨 Other Sean spent the week tracking what could be Alex Ovechkin’s final NHL run.

🎙️ We’ve got a two-fer at “The Athletic Hockey Show”: Ovechkin retirement talk plus Kevin Kurz on the Flyers on Monday, plus a special Tuesday edition breaking down Wheeler’s prospect ranking. Watch/listen to both episodes here.

Watch out for Jake Sanderson and the Ottawa Senators. (Rich Graessle / Getty Images)

Capital Punishment ❄️Underdog nobody wants to face

The Ottawa Senators have clinched a playoff spot, and there’s only one thing anyone wants to know: Are they bringing the gladiator guy back? But if there’s a second thing people want to know, it’s probably this: Just how good are they?

I think they’re pretty good, as you’d know if you heard my “The Senators are going to win the Metro” prediction from last week’s pod. (I will never give up on the dream of the NHL’s weird crossover playoff format resulting in a team winning a division they are not in. It hasn’t happened yet, but maybe this is the year.) But I wanted to know more, so I reached out to Sens writer Julian McKenzie for his two cents.

The Senators were tied for last in the East in mid-January, with their playoff odds slipping under 20 percent. What changed?

💬 McKenzie: “They changed their penalty-kill coach from Nolan Baumgartner to Mike Yeo, giving them a fresh voice. Even if the players say there’s not that much difference in how they run their PK, it’s clearly been a success by operating at over 83 percent since. The Senators got James Reimer to back up Linus Ullmark, and he’s helped stabilize their goaltending. And Ullmark has been on his game since returning from leave. The Senators’ ability to generate and limit chances at five-on-five has always been their game. But their goaltending and PK are finally working in their favour.”

The Senators had their share of drama this year, between Ullmark’s absence, the American Olympic team fallout, and the Tkachuk family podcast. What’s your sense for where this team is at as far as the room?

💬 McKenzie: “It’s all ‘white noise’ to them, apparently. Truthfully, they’ve pushed through the ‘ugly’ of January and February, and it feels like they can just play without many distractions. Jake Sanderson even said there’s ’25 best friends’ in the dressing room. The mood around the players has clearly changed in recent days and weeks.”

Finally, just how dangerous can this team be in the playoffs? I had them seventh in yesterday’s ranking, the highest of any wild-card team. Is that too optimistic? Or maybe not enough?

💬 McKenzie: “The Sens’ style makes them a tough out for anybody. Even if they draw the Eastern Conference-leading Carolina Hurricanes, who play a similar style, there’s upset potential. (Carolina’s goaltending appears suspect). The Senators also having Sanderson and Thomas Chabot back healthy will power them in any playoff series.”

Gary Bettman dons a ballcap. (Jon Levy / AFP via Getty Images)

No Dumb Questions

We believe that in hockey, as in life, there are no dumb questions. So if you have something you’ve always wondered about the sport, ask away by emailing us at redlight@theathletic.com.

Tip of the cap 🧢

Can a player sign for a percentage of the cap? So, for example, rather than signing for $X for six years … Can they sign for X% of the salary cap for the same term? — Ian A.

Great question, Ian. The answer is no, they cannot.

When a player signs a multi-year contract, the actual dollar amount can rise and fall, subject to certain limitations in the CBA. Those limitations have evolved over time, as the league works to eliminate quasi-loopholes like those dreaded back-diving contracts that took over the early 2010s. But to this day, teams and players have some freedom to get creative with how dollars are allocated, both in terms of which years they’re paid and whether they come in the form of signing bonuses or standard salary.

But the cap hit? That’s non-negotiable. Excluding bonuses that carry over to future seasons and a handful of very rare exceptions involving 35-plus contracts or contracts signed after a season has begun, the cap hit a deal carries is basically total dollars divided by years. And that amount stays the same for each and every year of the contract.

So, when, for example, Nick Schmaltz signs an eight-year extension that pays out a total dollar value of $64 million, his cap hit is $64 million divided by eight, for a cap hit of $8 million for all eight years. There’s no flexibility to spread it out differently, even if the team or player (or both) wanted to.

Why? I’m not sure the league has ever specifically addressed it, but I’d assume they want to avoid a situation where teams could take advantage of a more flexible system by squeezing extra dollars into years where they know their cap spending will be low.

Take the Blackhawks and Connor Bedard, who need to work out an extension this summer. Chicago is still in a rebuild phase, so should they be allowed to cram more of Bedard’s (presumably large) cap hit into the early years of the deal, leaving more room for down the line when they’re aiming to be Cup contenders? Maybe! That’s how it works in the NFL, where players can negotiate their contracts to help their teams fit under the cap. But the NHL likes to keep things simple, so they force the cap hits to stay consistent through the life of a contract.

Many have suggested that a percentage-based system would be better, while avoiding the kind of cap manipulation from our Bedard system. I think they have a good case, especially in a rising cap world. But for now, and at least until the next CBA in a few years, the scenario you’re describing is not an option.

Sebastian Aho. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

Trivia Answer

Our super-consistent playoff performer is Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, who’s scored in the double-digits in each of the last seven playoff years.

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