Ohio State’s Arvell Reese or Texas Tech’s David Bailey? That’s the looming question over One Jets Drive.

As we approach the draft, the favorite to be selected by the New York Jets with the No. 2 overall pick has flipped back and forth. Arvell Reese held that spot for most of the draft cycle, but David Bailey took over as the betting favorite last week. Then, the Jets canceled a top-30 visit with Bailey, pivoting the focus back to Reese.

While Bailey has long been regarded as a top 5-10 player in the draft, few saw New York as a likely landing spot when the college football season concluded. Make no mistake, Bailey has a strong claim as the best pass rusher in the draft. However, concerns about his run defense don’t fit Aaron Glenn’s physical mentality.

Before free agency, there was more debate on whether the Jets would draft safety Caleb Downs or running back Jeremiyah Love than Bailey. Since the Jets added Minkah Fitzpatrick and franchise-tagged Breece Hall, Bailey has entered the conversation with Reese.

Is this a real shift, or nothing more than speculation? Let’s unpack the situation to figure that out.

A key report preceded the David Bailey hype

In the week before the odds started to move, Todd McShay reported that the Dallas Cowboys are infatuated with David Bailey and were in talks with the Arizona Cardinals to trade from No. 12 to No. 3 for him.

The Cardinals and Cowboys have conducted early trade talks centered around the No. 3 overall pick, per @McShay13.

Dallas would be targeting Texas Tech pass rusher David Bailey. pic.twitter.com/e0VaugHvgR

— Evan Sidery (@esidery) April 3, 2026

If the Cowboys believe they can get Bailey at No. 3, it could indicate that teams believe the Jets have settled on Reese at No. 2.

Recently, though, more reports have surfaced indicating the Cowboys could be looking to jump the Giants at No. 5, who’ve been connected to linebacker Sonny Styles.

There’s a belief among teams at the top of the draft that the #Cowboys, who have picks at #12 and #20, are a team to watch in trade-up scenarios, according to multiple league sources.

Several teams have said they believe Dallas is targeting a player the #Giants also covet, and… pic.twitter.com/9C32GqBSkS

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) April 14, 2026

With several of the teams picking after the Jets looking to trade back, it’s clear the NFL doesn’t see many can’t-miss prospects. If the Jets agree, they could also look to trade back.

Could the Jets try to get in on the action and drive up the price?

The Cowboys have the 12th and 20th picks in this year’s draft and still have one first-round pick in 2027 (the worst pick of their own and Green Bay’s, with the better choice going to New York).

Dallas desperately needs an edge rusher following the Micah Parsons trade. The Jets could hope to emulate the 2023 Cardinals-Texans trade, which saw Houston move up to No. 3 for Will Anderson while Arizona netted the 12th and 33rd picks as well as future first- and third-round picks.

This wouldn’t be the first time the Jets blew smoke before the draft.

In the lead-up to the 2025 draft, the Jets ran plenty of misdirection. Many reports had them “infatuated” with Penn State tight end Tyler Warren, and then Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. made a late push. Instead, Armand Membou was the pick all along.

This year feels similar. Instead of leaking intel on who their guy is, the Jets are probably attempting to drive up trade value to create options.