David Bailey or Arvell Reese?
That’s what the New York Jets must decide on in six days when the 2026 NFL draft kicks off in Pittsburgh.
National popularity for the Texas Tech product in Bailey has spiked in recent weeks, despite Ohio State star Reese being considered the best non-quarterback of the class. Will that be enough to entice the Jets into focusing their efforts on the supposedly “safer” pick in Bailey?
Much of the Jets X-Factor team has discussed the potential downsides of choosing Bailey over Reese. The focus is mainly on fair concerns about his run defense and incidents that include stomping on an opponent in 2024 and getting into a physical altercation with a photographer last year.
Those are fair reasons to favor Reese, but make no mistake: The Jets could be perfectly fine if they ultimately choose Bailey over Reese.
Today, we will focus on three reasons that the team would still be on the right track with the Texas Tech product.
Injection of star power
Take a look at the Jets’ defensive roster. How many true stars do you see? How many marketable players?
Minkah Fitzpatrick and Demario Davis are probably the two most “marketable” stars on the team, and they’re both considered “elder veterans” more than stars.
The reality is that New York currently lacks the kind of star power that would strike fear in the heart of any opposing offense. For the work he did at Texas Tech and his aggressive nature, Bailey would immediately have the potential to become the best player on the Jets’ defense.
Leading the country in sacks doesn’t happen by accident. Nor does leading your team to the College Football Playoff.
New York needs marketable stars on defense—players who strike fear into the hearts of offenses.
Bailey does that and more if he’s the pick at two.
Not just “safe”
If you ask most Jets fans (and some analysts), the reason why Bailey would end up being the pick at No. 2 is that he’s a “safe option,” and the Jets need “safe” to save the job of head coach Aaron Glenn.
The second part of that suggestion is ludicrous. Glenn has specifically made it clear he wants to build a winner for the Jets. If he were worried about saving his job, he would not have signed off on the trades of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams last year.
He also probably wouldn’t have settled for Geno Smith as the starting quarterback.
Glenn is going to do what’s best for the Jets organization, not what’s safest. When the conversation focuses on a player with 14.5 sacks in his final year in college, the pick isn’t just safe, but it boasts a limitless ceiling as well.
New York needs a star pass rusher who can change the game with one rush. They don’t have that right now, but they could get it with Bailey.
Bailey isn’t merely a “safe” pick—he is a potential game-wrecker.
Coaching
Easily the largest weakness in Bailey’s game is his run defense. There are times when it’s downright alarming on tape, and that has led many of my colleagues to say he’s not worth the second pick when a more complete player like Reese is available.
It’s a fair criticism. But it also glosses over one key advantage the Jets have at their disposal:
Defensive line coach Karl Dunbar.
Back with the Jets after an eight-year run with Pittsburgh, in which he turned T.J. Watt into a Defensive Player of the Year, Dunbar has plenty of experience in getting quality edge rushers to become more complete performers.
There’s simply no “perfect” prospect in this class that the Jets are itching to take with the second overall pick. The reality is that if New York drafts Reese, they are taking a flier and hoping the coaching staff can develop him into a top edge rusher.
If the pick is Bailey, they have to hope the coaching staff can turn him into a plus run defender to match his excellent pass-rushing ability.
What would New York rather have: a sure thing of a pass rusher with a need for development as a run defender, or a high-upside question mark in need of development as a pass rusher?