The 2026 NFL Draft is days away, the Bills are slated to pick 26th in the first round with 7 selections overall. They have plenty of needs after several free agents left the roster and the roster philosophy changing due to a new coaching staff headlined by head coach Joe Brady.
One part that has stayed in place is General Manager Brandon Beane. He has been in charge of every draft since 2018 with successes and failures along the way. One trend that has held true since 2018 is the team’s ability to avoid drafting injury risks in the first two rounds. Once they hit the third round, the injury risks increase as the rounds progress. But this is where Beane and the front office have uncovered some of their best draft picks that have had major contributions to the team.
Identifying what players have injury risks and what ones do not will help better identify potential picks on the board when the Bills are on the clock.
Past Draft History
Since 2018, the Bills have selected 64 players which continues to provide a strong sample size.
To see the 2018-2021 draft histories, click here.
For 2022, click here.
For 2023, click here.
For 2024, click here.
Here is an injury rundown of each draft pick from the Buffalo Bills 2025 draft class:
2022 Kentucky
Undisclosed injury, vs Vanderbilt, missed 1 game.
2023 Kentucky
Right wrist/thumb injury, vs Vanderbilt, missed 0 games.
2024 Kentucky
AC Joint sprain, Shoulder infection, missed 5 games.
2021 South Carolina
No publicly reported injuries.
2022 South Carolina
Undisclosed injury, vs Georgia, missed 1 game.
2023 South Carolina
Shoulder injury, vs Tennessee, missed 0 games.
2024 South Carolina
Ankle injury, spring practices.
Foot injury, vs LSU, missed 0 games.
2018 Sophomore year
2020 Senior year
2021 LSU
Ankle injury, preseason.
Left ACL surgery, vs Auburn, missed 8 games.
2022 Arkansas
Ankle injury, preseason.
2023 Arkansas
No publicly reported injuries
2024 Arkansas
Undisclosed injury, vs Arkansas Pine Bluff, missed 0 games.
Hip pointer, vs Tennessee, missed 0 games.
Neck injury, vs Missouri, missed 0 games.
2022 Kentucky
No publicly reported injuries.
2023 Kentucky
Left shoulder injury, vs Ball State, missed 0 games.
2024 Kentucky
Lumbar stress fracture, missed 1 game.
2021 Ohio State
No publicly reported injuries.
2022 Ohio State
Hamstring tear, preseason, missed 6 games to start season, missed bowl game.
2023 Ohio State
No publicly reported injuries.
2024 Ohio State
No publicly reported injuries.
2019 Yale
No publicly reported injuries.
2020 Yale
Season cancelled (COVID)
2021 Yale
No publicly reported injuries.
2022 Yale
No publicly reported injuries.
2023 Yale
Undisclosed injury, vs Penn, missed 1 game.
Ankle injury, vs Louisville, missed 1 game.
2020 Virginia Tech
No publicly reported injuries.
2021 Virginia Tech
No publicly reported injuries.
2022 Virginia Tech
Right hand fracture near base of thumb requiring surgery, vs Virginia, missed 7 games.
2023 Virginia Tech
No publicly reported injuries.
2024 Virginia Tech
No publicly reported injuries.
2019 UConn
No publicly reported injuries.
2020 UConn
No publicly reported injuries.
2021 UConn
Left ACL, meniscus tear, vs UCF, missed 1 game.
2022 UConn
No publicly reported injuries.
2023 UConn
No publicly reported injuries.
2024 UConn
Right MCL knee sprain, vs North Carolina, missed Senior Bowl, Combine.
2021 West Virginia
Undisclosed, missed 1 game.
Prather did not play in the bowl game against Minnesota according to his game logs.
2022 West Virginia
Concussion, vs Oklahoma, missed 1 game.
2023 Maryland
No publicly reported injuries.
2024 Maryland
No publicly reported injuries.
Past Draft History Analysis
As of 2025, the Bills have selected 64 players with 51 players still playing in the NFL and 34 are still with the team.
The Buffalo Bills have continued their trend over the last eight seasons of selecting players without major or even moderate injury concerns in the first two rounds. Most fractures, minor sprains, contusions, and isolated soft tissue injuries led to minimal missed time. The one exception is fractures for obvious reasons. They occasionally allow for minor sprains or strains as they are part of their history but these are either isolated events or several years old.
Once the third round begins, the Bills become more relaxed in terms of selecting players with injury concerns as this appears to be the demarcation point for getting top talent. The Bills have also selected players without injury concerns in this round, but historically this has trended towards talent plus increased injury risk.
Every player they have selected in the first two rounds has managed to stay fairly healthy during their time as Buffalo Bills. Many have had high-ankle sprains, AC joint sprains, minor strains/sprains, and concussions, but otherwise have not suffered major injuries or missed extended time. Many of the players selected in the first two rounds have largely been productive at some point in their time in Buffalo even if it was a slow development.
The three exceptions to this have been Cody Ford, Kaiir Elam, and Dalton Kincaid.
Ford missed half of the 2020 season with a meniscus tear and throughout his other two seasons battled various injuries including requiring off-season shoulder surgery. He was largely ineffective playing guard and tackle before his trade to the Arizona Cardinals.
Elam had battled several foot and ankle injuries during both seasons and missed most of last year due to a lingering ankle issue. Both have been viewed as busts or at the very least not lived up to their draft status. Both came in with minimal injury issues coming out of college and that luck did not transition to the pros.
Dalton Kincaid has trended in this direction after 2024 saw him deal with two knee injuries including a PCL sprain. He also dealt with a collarbone issue and was not healthy most of the season. 2025 saw him continue to battle his PCL injury with two aggravations along with a hamstring and oblique injury that cost him time throughout the season. The Bills did pick up his fifth-year option but Kincaid better have a healthy season in order to discuss a contract extension.
Maxwell Hairston almost falls into this bucket but with his LCL sprain during training camp and his high-ankle sprain to end his season. Both of these injuries were no fault to his own but they did affect his availability when the team needed him.
The best predictor of future injury is previous injury. So while the Bills approach in drafting players with minimal injury histories early appears sound, they may be missing something. Whether there’s athletic testing that could reveal certain risks about these players or certain metrics to look at, it’s possible it exists. But it may also be simply bad luck and the result of being a high draft pick not performing to expected standards.
2026 NFL Draft
Looking at this year’s draft class, there are criteria that are used to identify potential risks or safe players.
Criteria
-I used The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s “The Beast” draft guide as a reference for this project using his draft grades on every player and obtaining additional injury history.
-Players are sorted into three different tiers: Healthy, Concerns, and Traits. Each player will have their projected draft grade in parentheses next to their name.
-Using the past trends observed by the Bills, a healthy pick in Round 1 or 2 is someone graded out at that position who has minimal injury history such as most fractures, minor sprains, contusions, or overall minimal missed time. Muscle strains aren’t necessarily excluded, but they have to show that they are several years removed from their last instance or not repeated instances. Isolated concussions also haven’t appeared to be a concern for the Bills.
-Concern picks are players identified as around Round 1 or 2 talents that have injury concerns and will have a brief injury history included.
-A Traits pick is projected as a Round 2-3 player or beyond. The Bills tend to go traits in this round regardless of injury. They will also have a brief injury history included.
-Nearly every position will have healthy, concerns, and traits picks.
Exclusions
-Tight End, Running Back, Cornerback, Center is not a high draft need and will not be addressed for this project.
-We have Josh Allen, no need to look at quarterbacks.
Wide Receiver
Healthy
Makai Lemon, USC 1st
KC Concepcion, Texas A&M 1st-2nd
Germie Bernard, Alabama 2nd
Concerns
Carnell Tate, Ohio State 1st
2025: Calf strain, missed 3 games.
Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State 1st-2nd
2022-2023: Left Knee ACL, MCL, PCL tear, missed last three games of season and all of 2023.
2024: Left collarbone fracture, missed two games.
2025: Ankle injury, missed spring practice.
2025: Hamstring strain, both sides, missed three games.
Omar Cooper, Indiana 1st-2nd
2020: Left ACL tear, junior year high school.
2023: High-ankle sprain, missed three games.
2025: Right ankle injury, missed one game.
Denzel Boston, Washington 1st-2nd
2025: Low ankle sprain, missed 1 game.
2025: Double sports hernia repair, spring.
Chris Bell, Louisville 2nd
2025: Torn left ACL November.
Traits
Antonio Williams, Clemson 2nd-3rd
2023: Ankle, toe injuries, missed 8 games.
2025: Right hamstring, missed 2 games.
Elijah Sarrat, Indiana 2nd-3rd
2025: Hamstring, missed 2 games.
Brenen Thompson, Mississippi State 3rd
2021: Ankle injury, senior year high school, missed most of season and required surgery.
2023: Hamstring strain, track season.
2023: Ankle injury, missed four games.
2024: Right ankle injury, missed two games.
Offensive Tackle
Healthy
Spencer Fano, Utah 1st
Francis Mauigoa, Miami 1st
Caleb Lomu, Utah 1st-2nd
Blake Miller, Clemson 1st-2nd
Concerns
Monroe Freeling, Georgia 1st-2nd
2024: Shoulder injury, later had surgery in 2025, missed spring workouts.
2025: Left ankle, didn’t start next game.
Kaydn Proctor, Alabama 1st-2nd
2024: Shoulder injury, missed 2 games, offseason shoulder surgery.
Max Iheanachor, Arizona State 1st-2nd
2024: Shoulder labrim tear with surgery
Traits
Austin Barber, Florida 3rd-4th
2023: Ankle, left shoulder, missed 3 games, offseason shoulder surgery January 2024.
Guard
Healthy
Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State 1st
Chase Bisontis, Texas A&M 1st-2nd
Concerns
None
Traits
Keylan Rutledge, Georgia Tech 2nd-3rd
2022: Undisclosed injury, missed 1 game.
2023: Left foot car accident, left big toe fracture, didn’t set right, had infection.
Gennings Dunker, Iowa 3rd
2021: Broken sesamoid bone from high school, redshirted, missed entire season.
2022: Undisclosed injury, missed 2 games.
2023: Broken pinky, missed 1 game, offseason shoulder injury.
2024: Knee injury, missed 2 games, ankle procedure in 2025 offseason.
Billy Scrauth, Notre Dame 3rd-4th
2021: Left foot surgery
2024: Right ankle, missed 4 games, required tightrope surgery.
2025: Left MCL knee sprain, missed 5 games.
EDGE
Healthy
Arvell Reese, Ohio State 1st
David Bailey, Texas Tech 1st
Rueben Bain, Miami 1st
Keldrick Faulk, Auburn 1st-2nd
Tj Parker, Clemson 1st-2nd round
Zion Young, Missouri 1st-2nd
Cashius Howell, Texas A&M 2nd
Concerns
Malachi Lawrence, UCF 1st-2nd
Shoulder surgery on both sides, non specific on years.
Akheem Meisidor, Miami 1st-2nd
2022: Shoulder surgery, prior to enrollment.
2022: Right foot injury, missed 1 game, later required surgery for torn ligaments.
2023: Left foot injury, missed 11 games, surgery.
2025: Undisclosed injury, missed 1 game.
R Mason Thomas, Oklahoma 2nd
2022: Hamstring, missed 3 games.
2023: Bilateral high-ankle sprains, missed 4 games.
2025: Quad strain, missed 3 games.
Traits
Derrick Moore, Michigan 3rd
2024: Left knee injury, missed 1 game.
2026: Hamstring, NFL combine.
Romello Height, Texas Tech 3rd
2020: Offseason shoulder surgery, redshirt.
2022: Right shoulder, missed 12 games
Defensive Tackle
Healthy
Kayden McDonald, Ohio State 1st
Peter Woods, Clemson 1st-2nd
Concerns
Christen Miller, Georgia 2nd
2018: Broken leg requiring 3 screws, freshman year.
2021: MCL sprain, high school.
2023: Finger injury, missed 1 game, meniscus clean up offseason.
2024: Right shoulder, missed 2 games, labrum repair 2025
Traits
Caleb Banks, Florida 2nd-3rd
2025: Left foot fracture spring, Left foot fracture requiring surgery, missed 9 games.
2026: Left 4th metatarsal fracture, NFL combine, surgery.
Linebacker
Healthy
Sonny Styles, Ohio State 1st
Concerns
Jacob Rodriguez, Texas Tech 2nd
2023: Right foot Lisfranc sprain and bone bruise, missed 8 games, no surgery.
CJ Allen, Georgia 2nd
2025: Left knee meniscus clean up, missed 1 game.
Traits
Josiah Trotter, Missouri 3rd
2023: ACL tear, redshirt, missed entire year.
2025: Minor knee injury, missed 1 game.
Kyle Louis, Pittsburgh 3rd
2021: Left elbow injury in high school required surgery, redshirted.
2023: PCL sprain, missed 3 games.
2025: Undisclosed injury, missed 1 game.
Kaleb Elarms-Orr, TCU 3rd-4th
2021: ACL tear high school, redshirt freshman year.
Safety
Healthy
Caleb Downs, Ohio State 1st
Dillon Thieneman, Oregon 1st-2nd
Concerns
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo 1st-2nd
2021: Concussion, elbow fracture, high school.
2024: Shoulder injury, missed 5 games.
Traits
Keionte Scott, Miami 2nd-3rd
2023: Right high-ankle, missed 3 games, required tightrope surgery.
2024: Ankle, missed 1 game.
2025 Right foot injury initially considered season-ending, missed 3 games right foot, but returned for playoffs.
Bud Clark, TCU 3rd
2021: Undisclosed injury, missed 8 games.
2022: Undisclosed injury, missed 3 games.
2024: Undisclosed injury, missed 1 game.
2025: Undisclosed injury, missed 2 games.
Jalon Kilgore, South Carolina 3rd
2025: Hamstring, missed 1 game.
Meetings
Here is a list of players that have met with the Buffalo Bills through various interactions during the draft process. Thank you to StickToTheModel.com, Buffalo Rumblings, and Justin M of SI NFL Draft for all this information.
The healthy and concerns look to be largely Day 1-2 projections.
Healthy
WR Germie Bernard: Combine
WR KC Concepcion: Combine, Top 30
S Dillon Thieneman: Combine
S AJ Haulcy: Top 30
LB Jaishawn Barham: Combine
DT Lee Hunter: Top 30
DT Domonique Orange: Top 30
Concerns
WR Antonio Williams: Combine
WR Denzel Boston: Combine, Private Workout
WR Jordyn Tyson: Combine, Pro Day
WR Chris Bell: Combine
WR Omar Cooper: Combine
DT Christen Miller: Combine, Top 30
EDGE Malachi Lawrence: Combine
S Jalen Kilgore: Combine, Private Workout
LB Josiah Trotter: Top 30
LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr: Top 30
OT Austin Barber: Zoom
S Keionte Scott: Zoom
Other Visits
These all appear to be Day 3 selections.
QB Jalon Daniels: Private Workout
WR Skylar Bell: Combine, Private Workout
WR Malik Benson: Private Workout, Pro Day
WR Jeff Caldwell: Zoom
TE Justin Joly: Top 30
TE RJ Maryland: American Bowl
DT Brandon Cleveland: Combine
DT Landon Robinson: Private Workout
DL Tyreak Sapp: Zoom
DL Bobby Jamison-Travis: Combine
DL Gracen Halton: Top 30, Visit
LB Jimmy Rolder: Top 30
LB Xavian Sorey: Pro Day
CB Julian Neal: Top 30
CB Daylen Everett: Combine
CB Jarod Washington: Pro Day
CB Andre Fuller: Top 30, Private Workout
CB Duce Chestnut: Pro Day
S Jakobe Thomas: Combine
S Robert Spears-Jennings: Combine
S Kamari Ramsey: Combine
S Malik Muhammad: Facility, Visit
P Ryan Eckley: Combine
P Jack Stonehouse: Combine
One final piece of information, The Buffalo News printed a story in 2024 about how the Bills look for what they call “Bills Blue” players. These are the cream of the crop players who fit everything the Bills are looking for. According to the article, only roughly 30 prospects get this designation. They are not necessarily a top player but they help break ties and allow them to get solid players in every round. The article is well worth the read to provide more insight into the Bills scouting process.
The Pick Is In
Looking at all this information and where the Bills are slotted to select at 26, they are hoping that either a player they have rated high falls to them or they are more likely looking to trade back. With no second round pick, it would be hard to expect the Bills to reach for a guy in the first round and then wait until the end of Day 2.
Most of the top prospects they met with have had injury concerns. They have medical information on everyone but the Combine visits don’t mean a lot due to how brief the interactions are. Sometimes that’s the only interaction the team publicly has so it can’t be dismissed, but a closer look at guys with private workouts, Top 30, and more interactions may tell us more. The Top 30 visits are more likely about looking at a player more closely and assessing the medical concerns.
Looking at this draft also tells me that this is the best year for Brandon Beane to lean into drafting an injury risks early. I don’t think he goes whole hog and gets a truly risky player, but I believe they may target someone with a lot of upside but a few more medical concerns than we are used to seeing. Beane knows his seat is getting warmer after Sean McDermott got his pink slip knowing that results need to be delivered.
If they don’t stick to their trends and pick a player with minimal injury issues as listed above, I could see a guy like WR Denzel Boston, WR Omar Cooper, EDGE Malachi Lawrence, DT Christen Miller, LB Jacob Rodriguez, or S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren as selections with some injury history but enough upside to overcome the concerns.
The best recent example of this is selecting Keon Coleman over Ladd McConkey in the 2024 Draft. Coleman didn’t have many injury issues while McConkey did. A re-draft would have the Bills taking McConkey 10/10 times.
This exercise is far from a guarantee considering so many variables in play and unexpected draft picks from other teams. But the Bills have a tell and this is meant to identify who may be a realistic selection and who isn’t when the Bills are on the clock.
Top Photo Credit: Bryan Bennett/Getty Images
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