For two months, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the New York Jets and Ohio State edge rusher Arvell Reese were locked into a future partnership together with the second overall pick.

Reese, long-considered the best non-quarterback in the 2026 draft by many, appeared to be the kind of defensive weapon that the Jets have desperately needed.

Then things changed, as they always do at this time of year.

What was once an obvious pick quickly became anything but, with Texas Tech’s David Bailey being considered a lock by some across the NFL.

“This pick has come full circle. My early intel was Bailey to the Jets at no. 2 because he’s the most proven pass rusher in the class,” Todd McShay said in early April. “…It’s close to a foregone conclusion in NFL circles.”

Now, things have shifted again according to those same people. And it begs the question:

Did the Jets’ mindset shift, or did major reporters simply overthink things?

Jets draft plans ‘shift’

New York’s draft plans have never “shifted,” as some believe. Over the course of the pre-draft cycle, every organization goes through various scenarios to better prepare for the upcoming weekend.

When news broke that the Jets were focused on Bailey over the last several weeks, it made more sense to believe New York was using that to try to spur a potential trade partner, more than the intended belief in the Texas Tech product.

Case in point? Todd McShay.

The ESPN draft analyst was quick to tell everyone that Bailey to New York was a done deal…until the last few days.

“Flying to LA early tomorrow am. I’m going to bed believing Reese is the Jets pick at 2,” McShay tweeted.

Now, what is most likely to happen here: that McShay simply guessed where the Jets would be leaning and finally learned of their true intentions, or the team used leaks to try and spread a false rumor to increase a potential trade target?

In the end, it doesn’t really matter. Despite a late push from Bailey, it looks like all signs point to Reese being the selection at two.

As it has been for months.

Reese draft profile

There are very few prospects in NFL history who possess the kind of raw attributes that Reese is walking into the league with.

His experience as an off-ball linebacker made him an intriguing prospect, but it’s his brief work as an edge rusher where teams see the most upside. From his terrific bend around the corner to his high motor and even his film against the run, consensus has been correct in saying the Ohio State product is the best non-quarterback in this draft.

Reese also fits New York’s “multiple” defensive scheme.

“We will be a multiple defense,” Glenn said this offseason. “So, there will be elements of 4-3, there will be elements of 3-4. And I think sometimes, it’s overblown, when you look at it, you’re in nickel like 70% of the time. So, you’re in a four-down spacing for the most part.”

With his ability to be off the ball and as an edge rusher, Reese’s versatility will be an excellent fit for what the Jets want to do in 2026.

And while national reporters seem to think the Jets are more torn on where they want to go, it seems like the betting odds have shifted back to Reese being the favorite, as has been the case for months.