May 16, 2026, 5:01 p.m. CT

The Buffalo Bills have the better quarterback on paper in Josh Allen, leading the charge in Week 1, but the Houston Texans have the better defense and home-field advantage at Reliant Stadium.

So, who is favored for Week 1’s matchup when the two AFC contenders kick off at Reliant Stadium?

Even after securing a 12-win season and winning a third-straight AFC wild-card round game, Vegas still views the Bills as the superior team. The Texans opened as 1.5-point underdogs at home against the Bills in Week 1, according to odds via BetMGM.

The over/under for total points scored between the two teams has been set at 44.5.

The last two times Allen has stepped foot in Reliant Stadium during the regular season, it hasn’t gone pretty. In 2024, Stefon Diggs finished with 82 yards on six catches as Houston secured a 23-20 victory. Last season, Allen had arguably his worst game of the regular season, tossing two interceptions and losing a fumble as the defense helped Houston prevail in a 23-19 win.

Expert NFL picks: Exclusive betting insights only at USA TODAY.

Perhaps this game has bigger implications for what’s in store for the AFC moving into 2026. The big storylines going into this showdown will be the respective play of quarterbacks. Last season, Allen had a clear path to his first-ever Super Bowl appearance, but a stumble against the Denver Broncos in the divisional round eventually cost Sean McDermott his job. On the flip side, C.J. Stroud tossed seven interceptions, including four against the New England Patriots, as Houston fell short of playing in its first-ever conference title game.

But even with a stellar defense, including newcomers like Eagles safety Reed Blankenship and Ohio State defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, oddsmakers consider the Bills an early favorite against the Texans.

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