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Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire

Mon, May 18, 2026 at 4:50 PM UTC

Dolphins schedule: Win probability for every game in 2026 season

The Miami Dolphins, in their first year under new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley, have a tough slate of games to play in the regular season. In fact, their schedule is the second-toughest in the league only behind the Arizona Cardinals.

With Miami unveiling their schedule last week, ESPN’s Mike Clay released his shared win-probability projections for every Dolphins game in 2026, and there’s no game that he projects the team with a more than 50% chance of winning a game.

Take a look at their win probability for each game below.

Week 2 at San Francisco 49ers: 7%

Week 3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 15%

Week 7 at New York Jets: 20%

Week 8 vs. New England Patriots: 15%

Week 12 vs. New York Jets: 33%

Week 16 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 15%

Week 17 vs. Buffalo Bills: 14%

Week 18 at New England Patriots: 7%

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This article originally appeared on Dolphins Wire: Dolphins’ win probability for every game on 2026 schedule