Jesse Minter has much to fix with a Ravens team that fell markedly short of expectations a year ago. Few characteristics of the defense he inherits will rankle him more than the unit’s collective failures in the fourth quarter.

Blowing late leads, and blowing double-digit leads at that, became a hallmark of this defense dating back to the Covid year of 2020. And it continued right through what became John Harbaugh’s last game on the job for Baltimore.

It played no small part in former coordinator Wink Martindale being shown the door and it was something former coordinator Zach Orr managed to compound, and even the man tucked between them – the great Mike Macdonald now holding a Lombardi Trophy as head coach in Seattle – couldn’t entirely solve this riddle during his two years running Baltimore’s defense.

The numbers are staggeringly poor, they run through three defensive coordinator regimes and they paint a bleak picture for Minter to fix on the fly. I have no doubt Minter will make great strides with this unit right away. And the addition of Trey Hedrickson – a “closer” as Minter put it in the introductory press conference  – took aim at some of the root issues in these lingering weaknesses with the game on the line. Minter, if you recall, deigned to speak about much specifically about the defense he inherited at his intro press conference, but did take aim at the fourth quarter failings.

Personnel upgrades to multiple levels of the defense should help – Baltimore had lacked playmakers affecting the ball in flight trying to protect leads for years as well – and despite all of their losses on offense in free agency its telling that the veteran additions have come on the other side of the ball. Minter’s scheme should carry some inherent tendencies to help the defense make gains when it matters most.

Ugly Numbers

When you quantify all that went into this collective abyss, it certainly seems to go beyond what one individually brilliant pass rusher might offer. And when you consider the remarkably advantageous positions this defense was in entering so many fourth quarters with the offense hitting new heights in this period, it’s even tougher to stomach. Through three quarters of games from 2020-2025 the Ravens were second in the NFL with a +609 point differential; they ranked fourth in points scored in that span and ranked first, yes first(!) in points allowed through three quarters in that span of 101 games.

Now, consider these rankings, since 2020, in overall fourth-quarter defense:

29th – 5.4 yards/play

28th – Points allowed (742)

28th – INT/ATT (1.9%)

29th – 1st downs/qtr (6.0)

30th – Total Defense EPA (-1.57)

30th – Defensive Penalty EPA (-39.66)

20th – Pressure Rate (34.8%)

30th – Completions of 15+ yards (185)

28th – OTDs allowed of 15+ yards (30)

That screams of a collective mindset and mentality that was hardwired to collapse. The best scoring defense in the NFL through three quarters over six season is somehow, on the whole, the worst unit in the league after the third quarter? That’s going to require a holistic reset in every aspect of defensive play. There are three critical areas that must be addressed ASAP, and in a forthright manner both in ongoing transactions and through systemic strategy and scheme decisions.

Pass Rush/Takeaways

Hendrickson and Calias Campbell are big adds. But I’d still be keeping tabs on Jadaveon Clowney as another situational option (he has the build to play around inside as well). Maybe accept that Zion Young might be more early-down anchor than backfield threat.

Minter favors big outside corners who can read and diagnose in Cover-4, playing a lot quarters (more on that below). For all the money spent and draft capital invested in corners in the Eric DeCosta regime, the lack of interceptions in this period of time despite constantly having opponents chasing the game after three quarters is an indictment. They are playing one-handed and winning against a defense that wasn’t allowing anything through three quarters for the better part of six years.

It’s difficult to coach up picks. Better pass rush will help in a big way. Better accounting for ball skills in their evaluations of defensive backs is in order too.

Big Plays Allowed

The average NFL team allowed 139 pass plays of 15 yards or more in the fourth quarter since 2020; the Ravens allowed 185. During Orr’s tenure they ranked 29th in touchdowns allowed of 15 yards or more in the fourth quarter and completions of that length. The Ravens also ranked second-highest in percentage of Cover-0 looks in the fourth quarter since 2020 (Wink’s forte!) and had the sixth-least usage of Cover-2 in that span and were 19th in usage of Cover-4 in the final quarter.

That’s over.

With the Chargers, Minter ran 50% more fourth-quarter Cover-4 than the league average and was third in the NFL in its usage. While Orr led the league in Coer-0 usage percentage the last two years, Minter was at the league average. And Minter was top 10 in usage of two deep safeties in the fourth quarter, while Baltimore was 24th in doing so in 24-25. In-game decisions from a rookie defensive coordinator certainly played a role in the Ravens’ ridiculous ways to lose games in John Harbaugh’s time here, and particularly the last two years. Not more than personnel, but significant nonetheless.

Minter’s defense is predicated on mitigating the run while keeping bodies back to prevent the back-breaking downfield thrusts. It’s a must here.

Penalties

How much of this is mental?

How woven into the fabric of this defense is it?

The Ravens fourth-quarter defensive penalty EPA is esoteric, but just consider that since 2020 it stands at -39.66, and the next worst team is Washington at -28.50.  The Ravens have the fourth-most defensive penalties in that span – despite all those leads and all those big leads – after playing far cleaner football in the first three quarters. They have a -35 fourth-quarter penalty margin since 2020 (San Francisco is second at -29) and the second-most defensive pass interference calls against them in that span.

Alas, Minter’s Chargers were 28th in the NFL in fourth-quarter defensive penalty EPA, but the total quantity of late-game defensive penalties was far lower than what we experienced here, and Minter’s defense had just two fourth-quarter DPI flags against them in 34 fourth quarters with the Chargers.

That alone would be a welcome starting point in Baltimore.

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