The Atlanta Falcons went 11-5 in 2016 and made the Super Bowl (we don’t need to talk about how that one went). The next year, 2017, the went 10-6. They fell to third place in the NFC South but still claimed a Wild Card and won their first playoff matchup. And then they decided to stop winning. Since that playoff berth in 2017, the Falcons haven’t finished even .500 in a season since. They haven’t bottomed out — Atlanta has won exactly 7 or 8 games in seven of the eight seasons since then — but they also haven’t really been contenders. Only the Jets (2015) have a longer streak of under-.500 records (the Panthers are tied with the Falcons, but hey, they still got a division title in there). The Falcons have some pieces. An elite running back and wide receiver, a breakout tight end, our No. 7 offensive line. But with a new coaching staff in place, is this the year the Falcons can crack the .500 barrier?
2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Atlanta FalconsSleeper: Zachariah Branch
ATHENS, GA – OCTOBER 04: Wide receiver Zachariah Branch #1 of the Georgia Bulldogs rushes the ball during the college football game between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Georgia Bulldogs on October 04, 2025, at Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire)
The first thing to say is that the Falcons are the most sleeperless team in the league (that’s not a word, but you get the point). Drake London, Bijan Robinson and (sure, I’ll give it to him) Kyle Pitts Sr. are known quantities, and there’s not much depth. So unless I’m in the mood to hype up Michael Penix Jr. and/or Tua Tagovailoa (and I’m not), the options are limited. That said, rookie third-rounder Zachariah Branch is interesting. Last year’s Falcons only had one player after London/Robinson/Pitts top even 200 receiving yards, and that was Darnell Mooney at 443. That said, Mooney almost cracked 1,000 yards in 2024 (992) and played through injury most of last year. And Ray-Ray McCloud had 686 in 2024 before some apparent discord in Atlanta led to his release last year. It’s not that the Falcons can’t have another productive receiver, it’s just that last year they didn’t. Enter Branch (and signees Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus, who are the next sleepers after Branch if he fails). He was only a third-round pick, but he was the second selection by the Falcons in April after they traded their first-rounder a year ago. He led the SEC in receptions last year as a slot specialist, and if he can get that kind of work from a quick-release guy like Tua, he’s got a chance to be a PPR cheat code as a rookie.
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Bust: Kyle Pitts Sr.
Pitts set career highs last year in target (118), receptions (88) and touchdowns (5), comfortably his best season in the league. That said, three of his five touchdowns on the season came in Week 15 alone. Take out that 166-yard, 3-score game, and Pitts never topped 90 yards in a game all season and only scored twice. He averaged 12.4 PPR points per game, but that dipped to 10.3 outside of Week 15. If we could count on one blow-up game a year, Pitts would still be worth it (albeit with some need to use him strategically), but that sort of thing is unreliable. On top of that, by bringing in Branch in the draft, the Falcons signaled a likely desire to have a slot weapon. And in being that, Branch is more likely to infringe on Pitts’ work (aDOT last year per FTN Stats & Charting: 7.4 yards) than anyone else’s. In other words, this is a guy who is more of a low-end TE1 than last year’s No. 2 overall finish last year would indicate even if he repeats last year’s workload, and also he’s probably not going to repeat last year’s workload.
Bold Prediction: Bijan Robinson Is the Top-Scoring Fantasy Player
Maybe this isn’t that bold, given Robinson is on the short list to be the 1.01 in fantasy draft this year, but I still want it on the record. Robinson is set up perfectly to not only be the RB1 in 2026, but also the top-scoring fantasy player overall and the runaway lead back. The Falcons have Brian Robinson Jr. as his backup (tread carefully when pulling your sticker on fantasy draft night), and we saw just last year in San Francisco that Brian Robinson Jr. as a backup to an elite RB1 isn’t a big concern, because Christian McCaffrey still dominated the work. The Falcons have Kevin Stefanski at the helm now, and injuries are the only thing that has kept Stefanski from relying on one single back over his last few years — it was all Quinshon Judkins, all the time, in Cleveland last year when he was available. Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford kind of split the work in 2023-2024, but that was because Chubb couldn’t get or stay healthy. Before that, Chubb dominated the work, even when the team had prime-ish Kareem Hunt around. On top of all that, the Falcons will be quarterbacked by Tua Tagovailoa or back-from-injury Michael Penix Jr. in 2026, which is another way of saying that this is not a team set up to air the ball out. This is going to be a run-first offense, way more than what the Lions will have with Jahmyr Gibbs, And that’s why I’ll take Bijan Robinson over Gibbs (and everyone else) in fantasy drafts this year.