Early in the season, I started a series called “The stages of suck.” The beancounters and powers that be informed me that this series was not well received. Apparently, the packaging was off the mark. However, it was based on a very clear premise that is still with us today. The Texans are a team with expectations. That sort of thing happens when you make it to the divisional round three years in a row. It also happens when you flame out in that round three years in a row.
Every individual situation is different, so the hot seat looks different. In short, the idea is to answer the question of who gets the blame if the situation goes sideways? The Texans are both unique and typical at the same time. On the one hand, the quarterback is the first one in the crosshairs and that is not unique in the slightest. On the other hand, the head coach is usually number two on the hit list and there is very little chance of DeMeco Ryans being anywhere near the hot seat at any point this season.
As per usual, the circumstances behind the hot seat depend greatly on the circumstances. If the Texans were to suddenly become the worst defense in the NFL then C.J. Stroud would not be on the hook. However, if the season goes south it will most likely involve him in some way. Since the Value of Things is a place for statistical analysis, I thought I would compare him to two quarterbacks that got put off on the huge extension timeline. Those teams played the franchise tag game. Where does C.J. Stroud compare with them following their third season?
Every situation is different. Cousins had been a backup for three years before this three year run with the Washington outfit. They let him walk and he went to the Minnesota Vikings. Prescott played year to year for awhile and you could argue the Cowboys mishandled his contract situation and therefore overpaid him. This is also not a rank ordering of guys. Obviously, players put up numbers in part based on who is around them and what they are asked to do.
The point is two-fold. First, the conversation around the Texans not giving Stroud his extension has been wild and hyperbolic on both sides. Of course, I have contributed to that with past articles, so my hands are not clean here. The point is that his situation is similar enough to others to defend the Texans waiting on an extension. Eventually, it comes down to whether you believe he can be the guy to lead you to a Super Bowl. In that context, he is extremely similar to where Prescott and Cousins were at that stage in their careers.
It shouldn’t be any surprise that subsequent seasons from those two likely color our judgment here. Stroud has the same number of playoff wins as Cousins and Prescott combined. We have to suppress the urge to give into the obvious if…then statement. Neither Cousins nor Prescott had a defense like Stroud has. Every situation is different. However, it is fair to make some generalizations and it is fair to question whether Stroud is a guy that can lead a team to the final four or final two.
This is also an acknowledgment that if the season goes sideways then Stroud could be the one on the chopping block. This isn’t to say it will be his fault or anything up to this point is his fault. Sometimes, guys just get pegged with the label of good but not great. Sometimes they get pegged with the label of someone that can’t win the big game. It happened to Dan Marino before him. It is probably the territory that Justin Herbert lives in now. We can obviously offer all kinds of alternative explanations for why things occur, but the results eventually are what they are.
The difference for Stroud is that he doesn’t have to play like an MVP candidate for the team to win. He needs to take care of the football and be efficient in the red zone. Neither of those are difficult asks for any quarterback. However, he could do both of those things and still come up short. It is one of the perils of being a quarterback in the NFL and one of the reasons why the best ones make more than 50 million dollars a year.
I have my opinions on Stroud, but I am also a Texans fan. I desperately want to be wrong. Being right also means this team is looking for its next quarterback. Life would be simpler if I were wrong and this team advanced to the next level. Yet, this series is about who might be responsible if things do not go our way. Stroud is the obvious first choice, but he is not the only choice. Stay tuned for more possible suspects.