How Has Mike McCarthy Fared As A Heavy Favorite In His Career?

One of the biggest gripes about former Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin was his team’s perceived inability to beat inferior opponents. The “Tomlin Special” reared its ugly head in 2023 when the Steelers lost to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots in back-to-back weeks as favorites of at least 6.5 points.

Throughout Tomlin’s tenure, the Steelers lost too many games against teams they should’ve beaten. Tomlin went 56-16 in games where the Steelers were favored by at least 6.5 points.

Now Mike McCarthy is the Steelers’ new head coach after Tomlin stepped down. McCarthy got his first head coaching job in 2006 with the Green Bay Packers, so there’s plenty of data to look at how McCarthy fares in games where he’s a favorite of at least 6.5 points.

In Green Bay from 2006-18, McCarthy went 56-12 in games where the Packers were favored by at least 6.5 points, per Stathead. There were some stinkers in there, like losing 35-7 to the Chicago Bears in 2007 as 7.5-point favorites. A 20-17 Week 13 loss to the Arizona Cardinals as 13.5-point favorites got McCarthy fired in 2018. But overall, an 82.3% win percentage is good.

In Dallas, McCarthy was 19-5 in games where his team was favored by 6.5 points or more, a 79% winning percentage. In a somewhat meaningless Week 18 game in 2022, the Cowboys lost 26-6 to the Washington Commanders as 7-point favorites. In Week 3 of the 2023 season, McCarthy’s Cowboys lost 28-26 to the Arizona Cardinals as 11.5-point favorites. The Cowboys also lost 30-16 as 10.5-point favorites against the Denver Broncos in 2021.

Combining his Green Bay and Dallas total, McCarthy is 75-18 in games where his team has been favored by at least 6.5 points. While he has two more losses than Tomlin in such situations, he also has 19 more wins, and 75-18 is a winning percentage of 80.6%, compared to Tomlin’s 77.7%.

The data tells us that McCarthy has had plenty more opportunities as a heavy favorite than Tomlin did, and for the most part, he’s taken advantage of them. But there’s still been plenty of slip-ups against teams that McCarthy should’ve beaten and didn’t.

When looking at a larger spread, McCarthy has lost five games when his teams have been favored by at least 10 points, while Tomlin has lost six. McCarthy’s been better, but not by much.

Many fans expect “The Tomlin Special” to go away. I do think McCarthy will be better as a heavy favorite given his experience, but it’s no sure thing. It never is in the NFL, and McCarthy’s 80.6% winning percentage is solid.

The Steelers will hope that under McCarthy, the days of letdowns against inferior opponents stay in the past.