Updated July 2, 2026, 2:40 p.m. ET

The Atlanta Falcons are expected to have an open quarterback competition, and while many have Tua Tagovailoa as the heavy favorite, there’s still plenty to like about Michael Penix Jr.’s upside. Penix is still recovering from ACL surgery but expects to be ready for training camp in late July.

That leaves Tagovailoa as the default starter until Penix is cleared for contact, but that doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed anything this season. In fact, Tua’s veteran minimum contract is one of the cheapest on Atlanta’s entire 90-man roster.

If Tagovailoa has a great year, he can reassert himself as one of the NFL’s better quarterbacks. On the flip side, if Penix wins the job, Tagovailoa’s stock will be at an all-time low.

NFL.com released a seven-round “win-now” mock draft compiled of players currently in the league. This exercise resulted in the Falcons coincidentally drafting Penix in the third round.

In perhaps an even more interesting twist, Tagovailoa wasn’t selected at all in the seven-round mock draft. The former Dolphins quarterback was snubbed, but in fairness to the exercise, not every team drafted a quarterback.

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So, with both Penix and Tua on the board, why did NFL.com project the Falcons to draft Penix? It came down to the quarterback’s upside. When healthy, the former Washington Huskies standout has one of the best arms in the league.

“I’ll give the Falcons’ new brain trust of head coach Kevin Stefanski, offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt a chance to help the talented (and hopefully healthy) Penix take a big step forward in 2026,” wrote NFL.com’s Chad Reuter.

Several other Falcons players were selected in Reuter’s mock draft, as you can see below.

Drake London to Colts at pick No. 78

The Falcons just missed out on taking Drake London in NFL.com’s mock draft. The team’s $141 million wide receiver was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts at No. 78 overall, which was one pick before Atlanta selected Penix.

“Boasting the ability to box out slot defenders and get the better of outside corners, London is a worthy pick at No. 78 overall,” Retuer wrote about the Colts’ hypothetical selection of London.

Bijan Robinson to Green Bay Packers in Round 1

The Falcons had just one player selected in the first round of NFL.com’s “win-now” mock draft, and I bet you can guess who it was. Bijan Robinson went 20th overall to the Green Bay Packers, leaving the Falcons to go in a different direction at RB later in the draft.

“Green Bay can’t pass up Robinson, who just led the league in total yards from scrimmage (2,298) at age 23,” explained Reuter.

Kyle Pitts lands with division-rival Panthers

In a move that would be hard for Falcons fans to stomach, the Carolina Panthers selected Kyle Pitts in the fourth round. Pitts just signed a three-year, $54 million extension, but Reuter has him staying in the NFC South and providing a big target for Bryce Young.

“Pitts takes some pressure off Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this hypothetical world, keeping safeties on their toes looking for seam routes or late wheels from the towering playmaker.”

The Falcons didn’t make out too bad themselves, landing Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett in Round 1. The team also added Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams and Jacksonville Jaguars CB/WR Travis Hunter.

Fortunately, with NFL training camp just around the corner, we won’t have to suspend reality for much longer.