July 19, 2026, 2:59 p.m. ET
The New England Patriots got back to the Super Bowl for the first time since the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era last year, but fell just short of capturing another ring. Now, they’re hoping to take that final step forward to return to the pinnacle in 2026.
But it hasn’t been a breezy offseason for the Patriots, as they have been at the center of attention on a couple of attention-grabbing headlines. But with a lot of talent back in place this season, the focus will be on blocking out any outside noise and continuing their current run among the top teams in the AFC. So what is the ceiling (and the floor) for the New England Patriots in 2026?
Ceiling: 13-4
The schedule does get quite a bit tougher this season for the Patriots, and it’s hard to tell if Vrabel’s mind has been exactly where it needs to be this offseason. The talent level isn’t much better or worse than last season, so New England sticking around the same level of success would make sense. We’ll set the floor at 13 wins, as the tougher schedule could add one more loss than last season.
Floor: 9-8
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This team feels too talented to post a losing record, but there was a consensus that they weren’t expected to perform as well as they did last season, and regressing the season after such an effort isn’t uncommon in the NFL. If the distractions around Vrabel continue into the season and the more difficult schedule takes a serious toll, there is a world in which the Patriots are fighting to make the postseason.