Three key storylines
1) Mayfield entering pivotal season
Baker Mayfield has enjoyed a career renaissance in Florida over the last three seasons, earning a three-year, $100 million deal with the team after a strong 2023 campaign and largely living up to the standards that come with such a contract. When viewed from a league-wide perspective, Baker deserves his spot and shouldn’t worry about his future in Tampa. But those who have followed this team closely also understand that Mayfield is a streaky player. He’s electrifying when at his best and can propel the Buccaneers toward great success, but he also struggles to get out of his own way at times. In 2025, Mayfield started white hot, leading Tampa Bay to a 6-2 start and pushing the team into the national conversation as a possible Super Bowl contender. Then injuries struck, sending Mayfield into a stretch of struggles that coincided with roster losses elsewhere and resulted in a pile of defeats and a postseason spent at home. For the first time since 2022, he finished with fewer than 4,000 passing yards. Instead of watching his offensive coordinator land a head-coaching job elsewhere thanks in part to his successes — as Dave Canales and Liam Coen had done before — his play-caller was fired. Now, Mayfield enters a contract year with a hard negotiating deadline (the start of training camp), without his favorite target (Mike Evans, who left for San Francisco) and with fresh questions to answer. Should things go well, Mayfield will remain the Bucs’ franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future. But if he encounters more struggles, it could cost him millions and inspire changes beyond his control that drastically change the landscape in Tampa.
Near the end of a frustrating, somewhat-inexplicable collapse in 2025, plenty of folks expected the Buccaneers to move on from Todd Bowles and start fresh with a new coach. That didn’t happen, of course, and Bowles is back to justify the organization’s support in 2026. If the Bucs struggle like they did last season — with Bowles’ defense finishing 20th in points allowed — he’ll likely be out of a job and Tampa Bay will be facing a potentially significant shift in identity for the first time since Tom Brady arrived in 2020. Some thought it’s precisely what the Buccaneers needed after 2025 and pointed toward Evans’ departure as proof that things weren’t right at One Buc Place. The team will have to embark on the new campaign without two franchise legends in Evans and linebacker Lavonte David, who retired after 14 seasons, another concerning sign about Tampa’s trajectory. It will be up to Bowles to prove the concerns are overblown.
3) Does Tampa have enough on defense to win?
Despite being led by a defensive-minded head coach, Bowles’ Buccaneers became an offense-first team over the last few seasons. As Mayfield powered an explosive attack, Bowles’ units proved average — at best — finishing 23rd, 18th and 19th in total yards allowed over the last three seasons. The Bucs haven’t landed inside the top 10 since 2022, Bowles’ first season as head coach. Entering 2026, the Bucs seem to have an assortment of pieces that could form an improved defense. The team wisely spent its first-round pick on Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., supplying Bowles with a legitimate threat at the edge position opposite YaYa Diaby for the first time since the final few years of Shaq Barrett’s career (which ended with a one-game campaign in 2024). Tampa Bay’s secondary should benefit from another year of development for Benjamin Morrison, Jacob Parrish and Tykee Smith, but as of now, it remains a unit carried by Antoine Winfield Jr. Linebacker includes some questions, too, after David’s retirement. Free-agent addition Alex Anzalone arrives to great expectations, and veteran Christian Rozeboom also entered the fray. Furthermore, Tampa spent its second-round pick on LB Josiah Trotter. With Bowles in charge, this defense could very well exceed expectations. It could also determine the team’s fate — and the security of its coach’s employment.