“Last year, the QBASE projection system felt higher on Ward than the consensus of the scouting big boards. Ward led college football with 39 touchdown passes and 10.52 adjusted yards per attempt, but Mendoza led college football with 41 touchdown passes and 10.78 adjusted yards per attempt. And yet, the scouting consensus is that Mendoza was a slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick. Ward was eighth on Arif Hasan’s [media consensus] big board at Wide Left, and with a variance of 173.1—higher than any other player in the draft. Mendoza was No. 1.
“Outside analysts that weren’t as high on Mendoza by comparison, like [The Athletic’s] Dane Brugler, were slotting him around third overall on their big boards. There were hits to pick in the Mendoza college tape—he does get sacked quite a bit—but it was hard to make a real argument that he wasn’t a top-five player in the class.
“The difference may simply be explained by the truism: Size matters. Both Mendoza and Ward are effective and willing scramblers, but not physical outliers at the position. It’s just that Mendoza, at 6-foot-5 and 236 pounds, reminds us more of Justin Herbert in the open field than anyone else. His fourth-and-4 gallop into the end zone to put Indiana up 24-14 with 9:18 left in the National Championship Game didn’t leave jaws agape. It was merely a big, fast player wanting it more.”