Training camp is about to start and immediately we will start receiving a lot of buzz from reporters about which players looks good, where contract issues remain unsolved, what injuries look healed or continue to linger and much more. There ultimately will be a wave of betting action on incoming news that the market races to price in.

My goal is to get to the window a little early and place a few regular season win total bets before all of that news hits.

Here’s one of the three bets I placed this past weekend, which I recommend taking right now:

The Bears have a brutally difficult schedule this season.

After winning the NFC North last year, they now draw a first-place schedule of opponents, while also playing in perhaps the hardest division in the league. Adjusting strength of schedule to projected win totals for this upcoming year, the Bears have the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL. This comes on the heels of the polar opposite situation last year where Chicago had one of the easiest preseason projected schedules, a key reason it overachieved.

Beyond the forecasted schedule, Chicago’s defense thrived last season due to forced turnovers. The Bears led the NFL in turnovers forced (33), and had the largest net turnover differential at +22. Year over year, turnovers in the NFL are analytically shown to be one of the least “sticky” stats, meaning there is a significant luck factor. The NFL being described as a “game of inches” is telling, and the Bears dominating possessions again comes with likely regression to the mean.

Lastly, while Chicago’s focal skill position players are young, the average age of the team actually ranks 10th oldest coming into this season. People point to Caleb Williams, Colston Loveland, Kyle Monangai, Luther Burden and Rome Odunze and think this is a team of players in their first few years in the NFL, but the glue guys are rather old. This reminds me of the Washington Commanders last year, with Jayden Daniels at the helm but a roster full of aging veterans who got hurt and significantly regressed.

The Chicago Bears are the first full fade for me, betting under 9.5 wins.

Read about the other two bets I placed this past weekend here.