Quarterback Brock Purdy scrambles away from the Chicago Bears’ Chris Williams in the first half at Levi’s Stadium on Dec. 28.
Carlos Avila Gonzalez/S.F. Chronicle
Niners running back Christian McCaffrey rushes against the Rams’ Jared Verse (since traded to Cleveland) and Nate Landman in a game at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Oct. 2.
Scott Strazzante/S.F. Chronicle
Niners tight end George Kittle is predicted to return early from a torn Achilles tendon suffered in a divisional playoff win against the Philadelphia Eagles in January.
Carlos Avila Gonzalez/S.F. Chronicle
Niners wide receiver Ricky Pearsall could take a step forward in 2026 after grabbing 31 and 36 catches in his first two seasons respectively.
Scott Strazzante/S.F. Chronicle
Niners defensive end Nick Bosa, left, returns after a knee injury limited him to three games last season.
Ben VanHouten/Associated Press
Dearest readers who are also San Francisco 49ers fans:
Sorry, we’re skipping the small talk. Are you sitting down? Good. Better yet, stretch out on a couch. A trained professional can help you process what’s coming.
What I’m about to share will hit you harder than Ronnie Lott circa 1984. It will be as distasteful as an NFL owner, aboard his Gulfstream jet, lobbying for an 18-game season. And it will be more baffling than Brandon Aiyuk’s next Instagram post.
Article continues below this ad
Please don’t kill the messenger or, worse, cancel your subscription: The 2026 49ers, fresh off a 12-win season that restored their swagger, won’t make the playoffs.
San Francisco Chronicle Logo
Make us a Preferred Source to get more of our news when you search.
Add Preferred Source
And believe me, this hurts me more than it hurts you. It gives me no pleasure to share that the latest Quest for Six will be a Quest for (Just Above) .500, a slogan that will give the team’s marketing department fits.
Article continues below this ad
I also know your next question. Who appointed me Nostradamus? (OK, guilty, but it’s less obnoxious than the King of Clairvoyance.)
In my unbiased estimation (ahem), the title has been earned. As we unveil the 10th edition of the Chronicle’s annual 25 preseason predictions, consider the receipts.
Last summer, with the salary-shedding 49ers coming off a six-win 2025 season and openly embracing a “reset year,” I predicted they would win more than 10 games, score exactly 23 points while beating an NFC East opponent in the wild-card round, and they would lose in the divisional playoffs.
There was more. I also forecast that then-beleaguered backup Mac Jones would post a passer rating in the high 90s during his spot starts, Christian McCaffrey would rebound for a 1,200-yard rushing season, and Ricky Pearsall would catch exactly 36 passes — bull’s-eye — despite missing much of the season with multiple injuries.
Article continues below this ad
Were there also some massive misses mixed in last year? Has the crystal ball been kind of cloudy in other seasons? Great questions, but, really, this preamble has gone on long enough! Let’s get to this year’s predictions.
1. Starting with a layup: The 49ers will be among the NFL’s most injured teams (let’s say top 10) based on games missed by Week 1 starters.
2. Kyle Shanahan knows it’s time to move on and help create a bring-it-on mindset with real games looming. Still, he won’t be able to resist complaining at least one more time about the 49ers opening the regular season in Australia.
3. The Brandon Aiyuk saga will somehow get more bizarre — and the former All-Pro wide receiver won’t play in the NFL in 2026.
4. The 49ers’ overreliance on aging 30-something players due to their series of lackluster recent drafts will catch up to them (and those NFL-record travel miles won’t help): They will finish 9-8, miss the playoffs and finish in third place in the NFC West behind the Rams and Seahawks.
Article continues below this ad
5. Predicted wins: vs. Dolphins, vs. Cardinals, vs. Commanders, at Cowboys, vs. Seahawks, vs. Raiders, at Giants, at Chargers, at Cardinals
6. Predicted losses: at Rams, vs. Broncos, at Seahawks, at Falcons, vs. Vikings, vs. Rams, at Chiefs, vs. Eagles
7. The story that will be written during the season? The lack of impact from the Niners’ 11-man 2025 draft class.
8. Rushing leaders: Christian McCaffrey (1,132 yards), Jordan James (392), Brock Purdy (275), Kaelon Black (162).
9. Receiving leaders: Mike Evans (77 catches), McCaffrey (70), George Kittle (59), Pearsall (46).
Article continues below this ad
10. Sack leaders: Nick Bosa (10), Osa Odighizuwa (4.5), Mykel Williams (4), Romello Height (4).
11. Kittle will make his season debut in Week 2 after suffering a torn Achilles in January.
12. Purdy will miss two starts with a sprained AC joint. His season stats: 3,772 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, completing 68.1% of his passes.
13. Their first draft pick, WR De’Zhaun Stribling, will have 36 catches for 458 yards and 3 TDs.
14. A running back who is not on the current roster will have at least 40 carries.
15. A pass rusher who is not on the current roster will have at least four sacks.
16. McCaffrey, Pearsall, Evans, left tackle Trent Williams and Bosa will combine to miss at least 25 games.
17. Odighizuwa and linebacker Fred Warner will combine to miss fewer than five games.
18. Notable players who won’t make the 53-man roster: WR Demarcus Robinson, LB Nick Martin, RB Isaac Guerendo, CB Darrell Luter Jr. and DE Sam Okuayinonu.
19. Two undrafted rookies will make the 53-man roster: DE Mikail Kamara and punter Jack Bouwmeetser, who will beat out veteran Corliss Waitman.
20. Speaking of specialists, kicker Eddy Piñeiro will slip from unconsciously awesome to merely above average: He’ll go 26-for-30 on field-goal attempts, including making 4 of 6 from 50-plus yards.
21. Best free-agent signing: Evans. That bargain three-year contract he signed makes it easy for the 49ers to part ways after 2026. They won’t spend a second considering his release.
22. Worst free-agent signing: Linebacker Dre Greenlaw. His reunion after one season away is a feel-good story. His recent injury history? Bad news.
23. Best value draft pick: Guard Carver Willis. The fourth-round pick will win the training-camp battle with Robert Jones for the starting left-guard opening. DT Garcen Halton, a fellow fourth-rounder, will be a close runner-up.
24. Worst value draft pick: Running back Kaelon Black. The controversial third-round pick had some impressive juice in offseason practices. But … Joe Williams. And Trey Sermon. And Ty Davis-Price. And Guerendo. Those who don’t learn from history? Yes, they are doomed to look like fools in their preseason predictions.
25. How many 49ers will be voted into the Pro Bowl? Four: Warner, Kittle, McCaffrey and fullback Kyle Juszczyk.