The Texas Longhorns will go as far as quarterback Arch Manning can take them.
His big arm is a huge source of conversation this offseason and as the Sept. 5 season opener against Texas State approaches, the talk will center around if he can improve upon a promising first full season as the starter.
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It starts with throwing accuracy. Quarterbacks are judged by wins but on a simpler level, the most basic of all skills often determines success and the most important question in all cases is: Can the quarterback get the ball to his receivers on a consistent basis?
Quarterback Arch Manning of the Texas Longhorns speaks at the SEC media days at Tampa Marriott Water Street on July 23, 2026, in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Parker S. Freedman/Getty Images)
Parker S. Freedman/Getty Images
Manning’s .614 completion percentage ranked 13th among SEC quarterbacks, behind returning projected starters like Georgia’s Gunner Stockton (second at .697), Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss (fifth, .661), Alabama’s Ty Simpson (seventh. .645), Oklahoma’s John Mateer (11th, .622) and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed (12th, .621).
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The most talked about quarterback in college football knows where he most improve. The upside is obvious. The work is all that remains to get there.
“I think that’s something you’re always going to try and get better at playing quarterback,” Manning said at SEC media days. “(It’s about) getting through reads and getting the ball to the right spot and getting it in your playmakers’ hands.”
Coach Steve Sarkisian subscribes to the teachings of his football forefather Bill Walsh, the father of the West Coast offense. His attack used short, crisp passes to break down opposing defenses, often utilizing the running back as a pass-catching weapon against slower linebackers and safeties. It was modern football’s version of death by a thousand cuts.
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The strategy revolutionized pro offenses and led to the San Francisco 49ers winning five Super Bowls, four under his watch in the 1980s. Walsh won with quarterback Joe Montana, a Notre Dame product who wasn’t blessed with a rocket arm like contemporaries Dan Marino and John Elway but was surgically accurate as he finished with a career completion percentage of .632, which was elite for the run-heavy generation of the 1970s and 1980s.
Joe Cool was the perfect QB for Walsh’s invention because he consistently got the ball from Point A to Point B.
“Arm strength is misleading,” Walsh once wrote. “Some players can throw 80 yards but they aren’t good passers. Good passing has to do with accuracy, timing and throwing a ball with touch so it is catchable. This all involves understanding a system, the receivers in the system and having great anticipation.”
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Arch Manning got better in second half of 2025
As far as Manning is concerned, it was obvious that he grew into the position over the last half of the 2025 season, which coincided with the Horns winning seven of eight games. To that end, I did a brief dive into his passing numbers.
He had a .603 completion percentage over the first seven games and improved to.623 over the last six, which is encouraging since those were all against SEC teams, including a tough 14-of-29 outing against Texas A&M.
Those who followed Manning noticed that he would sometimes miss on what appeared to be the simplest of passes then come back and complete a laser 30 yards down the field. I’ve said more than once that he appears to be more Marino than Montana at this stage.
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Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) celebrates a win over Texas A&M Aggies 27-17 during the NCAA college football game in the Lone Star Showdown in Austin, Texas, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025.
Ricardo B. Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman
To steal a basketball term, Manning was better at making 3-pointers than he was at the mid-range game. He missed more on the short stuff than he did from distance. When I brought up the hoops analogy to Sarkisian in Tampa, he took it a step further.
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“I think he needed to finish a little better around the rim,” Sarkisian said. “Like anything, there was an evolution for him. I think at the end of the day, when you think about passing the football, that’s really an assist. It’s not really shooting, and I think we needed to finish better for him too with the ball.”
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Translation? Arch can’t throw it and catch it at the same time. The Horns dropped 21 passes in the regular season, which made Manning the fourth most victimized quarterback in the SEC. The drops tied for the 21st most in the FBS, per Pro Football Focus.
Worse yet, they came in bunches. The Horns were relatively clean through the first seven games with only seven drops, but things quickly went south with five in the wild 45-38 win at Mississippi State, three in the 34-31 home win over Vanderbilt and the low point of five in the 35-10 road beatdown at the hands of the eventual SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) and Texas Longhorns wide receiver Ryan Wingo (1) celebrate after a kneel as time expires during the Lone Star Showdown against Texas A&M at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 28, 2025.
Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman
Had his receivers played clean over the last six games, Manning’s completion percentage would have been .697 in the second half. Alas, football is played by human beings so drops, interceptions, fumbles and penalties are part of the experience.
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That said, it also shows that improvement is possible, especially when one considers that 13 drops came in just three games.
“We had too many drops and all of that pours into a quarterback’s completion percentage,” Sarkisian said. “I think Arch is throwing really accurately right now. He’s worked on some things mechanically. I think we’ve surrounded him with some really good pass catchers that are doing a nice job, and I think that we’re evolving offensively to where we know what some of his strengths were last year, but also some areas where we felt like, man, we need to improve upon this to become even better. I give him a lot of credit for doing that.”
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) talks to receiver Cam Coleman (8) during practice on fan day at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aril 18, 2026 in Austin.
Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman
Getting some work in
Manning was limited in the spring after minor foot surgery, so after healing up a couple of months later, he invited wideouts Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo, Emmett Mosley V and Sterling Burkhalter to his hometown of New Orleans. He introduced them to local cuisine in between several important passing workouts at Tulane University.
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“I just needed more work with them,” Manning said. “We had the whole squad. We had a good time.”
Manning hopes to pick up where he left off with his electric finish to 2025. After throwing 12 touchdowns and five interceptions in his first seven games, he followed up with 14 touchdowns and only two picks in his last six. Fewer drops and an improvement on the short stuff — assuming the offensive line holds up its end — should add up to an uptick in production and if Manning competes for a Heisman Trophy as preseason prognosticators suggest, better touch on the ball will be a must.
Recent history suggests as much. Each of the last five quarterbacks to win the Heisman — Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza in 2024, LSU’s Jayden Daniels (2023), USC’s Caleb Williams (2022), Alabama’s Bryce Young (2021), and LSU’s Joe Burrow (2019) finished in the top 20 in completion percentage.
Manning was a distant 81st last season while his Sept. 12 opponent — Ohio State’s Julian Sayin — sat atop the list at .770, including an astounding .784 marksmanship on passes of 50-plus yards.
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Manning, as usual, isn’t interested in too much big-picture talk. He and his teammates are all about the station-to-station method.
Keeping it basic is important, sort of like how coach Walsh went about his business back in the day.
“Remember, the goal of passing the ball is to make sure it is caught,” he wrote. “By your intended receiver.”
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Quarterback words to live by.