The 2025 NFL season saw massive turnover in the final playoff picture.
Only eight teams kept their spot in the playoffs year over year. It coincided with a year where only one team repeated as division winners (Philadelphia).
It would surprise me if the 2026 season replicated last year’s fluctuation. Given the number of surprise division winners, some first-place teams ended up with projected easier schedules.
Still, a few teams fit the profile of a team that misses the playoffs this year after making it last year. Let’s dive into the predictions based on current NFL odds.
Last Year’s NFL Playoff Teams Likely To Miss This Year’s Playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars (-105)
Oddsmakers currently price the Jags as a slight underdog to miss the playoffs. It’s my belief the price should be higher given how Jacksonville achieved its success last year.
Myriad defensive turnovers – 31 to be exact – aided Jacksonville’s 13-win season. What’s particularly problematic is how Jacksonville looked defensively when you remove those plays.
Jacksonville falls from fifth to 11th in EPA per play when you remove turnovers. It takes an even more sizable dip when you sample the early games against good offenses.
In Weeks 2-12, Jacksonville ranked 20th in dropback EPA per play and 28th in dropback success rate. Later in Week 16, the defense made Bo Nix look like the second coming of John Elway.
Jacksonville also scored 27 points of defensive or special teams touchdowns. That accounts for 10% of their final point differential.
For a team that finished 6-3 in one-score games and won two overtime games by four combined points, Jacksonville fits the profile of a playoff regression candidate.
Carolina Panthers (-300)
It’s not exactly going out on a limb in relation to the odds, but I need to pump the brakes on Carolina love this offseason.
The Panthers won eight games last year despite a -69 point differential. Remember, this was a team that beat Atlanta 30-0 in Week 3, too. In two games, they won without forcing a punt!
Carolina projects to face one of the more difficult first-place schedules. Outside the NFC South, Dave Canales’ team plays the NFC North, AFC North and Eagles/Seahawks/Broncos.
By combined 2026 win totals, only Miami and Arizona project to face harder schedules.
Carolina’s 6-2 record in field-goal games and 7-3 record in one-score games are both massive regression indicators. Look for the Panthers to exit the playoffs entirely in 2026.
Denver Broncos (+120)
Denver’s roster is so well constructed. Good offensive line, high defensive ceiling and good coaching. Viewed as a math problem, the team could see a ton of regression.
The Broncos finished 6-2 in field-goal games last year and 10-2 in true one-score games. It came while facing the fourth-easiest schedule, including the fifth-easiest defensive schedule.
Incredibly, Denver won 14 games despite trailing at any point in 15, per Sharp Football Analysis. The team also converted only eight halftime leads into 14 wins.
Historically, those are unsustainable winning methods. Additionally, Denver played 47% of defensive snaps against quarterbacks 30th or worse in EPA per play.
Only five teams faced a softer quarterback schedule by that metric. This year, the schedule toughens with Denver playing the NFC West and AFC East.
If the defense regresses in key matchups, a ton of regression could arrive in Denver. Those factors lead me to predict it’s more likely than not Denver misses the playoffs.