Every year, my quarterback rankings are chalk except for a few exceptions. On those handful of guys, it’s like I’m remembering the fantasy football season completely differently. Let’s run through where I part ways with the NFL consensus for my QB rankings.
I ranked eight quarterbacks well above or well below where the field has them. What follows below breaks down the logic behind those eight, ordered by my own quarterback rankings, with the stats and draft context for each.
(Note: My full QB rankings are at the bottom of the article!)
More fantasy football rankings & tiers: Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Justin Herbert (QB4): Reaching and it’s still a discount
I rank Herbert fourth. The consensus ranks him eighth. The reason starts with his offensive line. Herbert was the most pressured passer in the NFL last year, and he still finished as the QB10: 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 498 rushing yards, the second most rushing yards among quarterbacks.
Pro Bowl tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt both return from injury. In the five games Alt played last year, Herbert averaged 23.9 fantasy points. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel wants Herbert to throw quicker to cut down the hits. Better protection could push Herbert toward a QB4 finish, yet his ADP of 90 still has him going off the board several rounds after Tier 1.
Drake Maye (QB8): Fading after a career year
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) set the bar awfully high in 2025, which is why I’m fading him in my QB rankings.
The field ranks Maye third. I rank him eighth. The gap comes down to one word: regression. Maye’s 2025 was outstanding. He finished QB2 in scoring at 21.1 points per game and led the league in completion percentage (72.0%), yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (113.5). He ran for 450 yards and four scores on top of that. New England added receivers A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs.
My concern, and this is a theme among analysts like myself, is the schedule. New England went from one of the league’s easiest schedules in 2025 to one of its hardest in 2026, and a passer coming off numbers that good rarely matches them the next year. Maye’s ADP of 55 makes him one of the first three quarterbacks drafted, so I need a margin of safety I do not get at that price.
Matthew Stafford (QB9): Trust the reigning MVP
Most rankers slot the reigning MVP at QB15, mainly because of his age. I am not fading him. Stafford led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns against just eight interceptions in 2025, and his 26.1 fantasy points per game led every quarterback.
Receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both return, and Sean McVay still runs the offense. Stafford is 38; he dealt with back trouble last summer, and the Rams plan to limit his throws in training camp. He also gives you nothing as a runner, so his passing volume has to stay high. Even with that, I will take a defending MVP in that offense at QB9.
Caleb Williams (QB10): Nudging the Bears QB down
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) is a slight fade in my QB rankings.
I rank Williams 10th. The consensus ranks him seventh. That is only three spots, but it is the difference between a QB1 and a fallback option. Williams finished QB6 last year with 3,942 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, and he added 383 rushing yards and three scores in his first season under head coach Ben Johnson.
My worry is his accuracy. His completion rate fell to 58.1%, and he ranked 32nd among 40 qualifying quarterbacks in completion rate over expected on short passes, a stat that measures how often a passer completes throws relative to what an average QB would do on the same attempts.
Chicago then traded receiver DJ Moore to Buffalo and drew the NFL’s toughest 2026 schedule. The big arm can be a difference-maker, but the accuracy is not, so I keep him toward the bottom of the QB1 line.
Trevor Lawrence (QB12): Pumping the brakes
Lawrence sits ninth in the consensus, and his second half of 2025 backs that up. He averaged 27 points per game over the final stretch and was the QB1 on a per-game basis during that run.
For the full year, he threw for 4,007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in head coach Liam Coen’s first season, plus a career-best 359 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns.
That many rushing touchdowns from a quarterback rarely happens two years in a row, and his 60.9% completion rate is only average. Take away even half of those rushing scores, and Lawrence looks more like a back-end QB1. I like the player. I do not trust that touchdown total to repeat.
Daniel Jones (QB17): my boldest bet on the Colts starter
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones earns the biggest bump in my QB rankings
I rank Jones 17th. The consensus ranks him 25th. That eight-spot gap is my widest split on this list.
Before injuries wrecked his 2025 season, Jones was the QB5 through 10 weeks: a 69.9% completion rate, 8.3 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, seven interceptions and five rushing scores while the Colts started 8-2. Then he fractured his fibula and later tore his Achilles in Week 14.
Jones says he is full-go for training camp, and Indianapolis committed to him with a two-year, $88 million deal. His health is the whole question. If the Achilles holds up, a player going nearly undrafted until pick 201 deserves more respect considering he was a top-five fantasy quarterback four months into last season.
Bo Nix (QB20): Passing on the Broncos star
Nix finished QB7 in total fantasy points in each of his first two seasons, and the consensus rewards that with a QB13 ranking.
I look at the efficiency underneath and back away. Nix was QB11 in points per game last season, averaged a weak 6.4 yards per attempt and led the league in pass attempts while still failing to reach 4,000 passing yards. Since 2024, he ranks 31st out of 41 qualifying passers in success rate, which measures how often a play gains enough yardage to be considered a win for the offense.
His fantasy value leans heavily on his rushing, and he broke his ankle in the playoffs, an injury Sean Payton suggested could be a recurring problem. Denver added receiver Jaylen Waddle to help, but I am not paying a high price for numbers propped up by his legs.
Malik Willis (QB25): Need to see it first
Fantasy football managers are a little too bullish on Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis.
The hype is easy to see, so the field ranks Willis 21st. In two years as a backup in Green Bay, Willis completed 78.7% of his passes, averaged 10.9 yards per attempt, and posted six touchdowns with zero interceptions. He has added 405 rushing yards and four scores over his career.
Miami gave him a three-year, $67.5 million deal to start after releasing Tua Tagovailoa.
Here is my hesitation: Willis has just six career starts, and Miami gutted his receiving corps by trading Jaylen Waddle and letting Tyreek Hill go. His strong numbers came in small samples against soft defenses. I need to see it over a full season before I rank him inside my top 20.
2026 Draft QB Rankings
Updated 8/8/26
Rank
Player
Position
Team
Bye
Tier 1
1Josh AllenQBBUF7
2Lamar JacksonQBBAL13
3Joe BurrowQBCIN6
Tier 2
4Justin HerbertQBLAC7
5Jayden DanielsQBWAS7
6Jalen HurtsQBPHI10
7Dak PrescottQBDAL14
8Drake MayeQBNE11
9Matthew StaffordQBLAR11
10Caleb WilliamsQBCHI10
Tier 3
11Brock PurdyQBSF8
12Trevor LawrenceQBJAC7
13Patrick Mahomes IIQBKC5
14Jaxson DartQBNYG8
15Jared GoffQBDET6
16Jordan LoveQBGB11
17Daniel JonesQBIND13
18Kyler MurrayQBMIN6
19Baker MayfieldQBTB10
20Bo NixQBDEN10
Tier 4
21Sam DarnoldQBSEA11
22C.J. StroudQBHOU8
23Tyler ShoughQBNO8
24Bryce YoungQBCAR5
25Malik WillisQBMIA6
26Cam WardQBTEN9
27Aaron RodgersQBPIT9
28Geno SmithQBNYJ13
Tier 5
29Fernando MendozaQBLV13
30Jacoby BrissettQBARI14
31Michael Penix Jr.QBATL11
32Tua TagovailoaQBATL11
33Shedeur SandersQBCLE11
34Deshaun WatsonQBCLE11
35Carson BeckQBARI14
36Kirk CousinsQBLV13
37J.J. McCarthyQBMIN6
38Mac JonesQBSF8
39Anthony Richardson Sr.QBIND13
40Joe Milton IIIQBDAL14
41Ty SimpsonQBLAR11
42Justin FieldsQBKC5
43Joe FlaccoQBCIN6