Since using the No. 2 and No. 3 overall picks in the 2023 NFL Draft on franchise-changing players on both sides of the ball, the Houston Texans have turned a corner. C.J. Stroud shined as a rookie quarterback, and Will Anderson Jr. has become one of the premier edge rushers in football.

The results have been double digit wins in each season since landing that draft class, with 10 wins in both 2023 and 2024, and a jump to 12 wins in 2025. However, when you ask most football fans what they remember about Houston’s season last year, they’ll tell you how it ended. Stroud threw four interceptions in snowy Foxborough, as the Texans were eliminated from a third consecutive postseason.

So how will Houston fare in 2026? Let’s discuss.

Houston Texans O/U 9.5 Wins

The 12-5 record from the Texans in 2025 was actually remarkable. It easily could have been even better, despite offensive struggles. Remember, this team started the season 0-3, before hitting its stride and going on a 13-2 run — a 12-2 finish to the regular season, followed by a playoff win in Pittsburgh. The playoff loss to the Patriots was by far Houston’s worse loss of the season, leaving an unfair negative perception due to how abysmal the offense looked.

The Texans were literally in every single game of the season with a chance to win, as their five regular season losses all came by a single possession! The 0-3 start featured a five-point loss at the Rams, a last second one-point loss to the Buccaneers and a touchdown loss in Jacksonville. Houston also lost by eight to the eventual Super Bowl champs in Seattle, and by a field goal to a Denver team that almost made it to the Super Bowl. This team had a tremendous 12-5 season, and it was nearly much better.

Let’s start with what we know — this defense is nasty. Anderson and Danielle Hunter are game wreckers up front, and they are backed by an elite secondary that got even stronger. Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the top cornerbacks in football, and plays opposite a Pro Bowler in Kamari Lassiter. Calen Bullock is a Pro Bowl safety, and now Houston adds a captain of the Eagles’ defense to the safety room in Reed Blankenship. DeMeco Ryans might have the best defense in football.

So that leaves the question of how much the offense will improve? Again, Stroud has led this team to 10 or more wins in each season of his career, even with his post-rookie season struggles. The receiver room seems all set, as Nico Collins provides a clear WR1, with depth behind him. Collins was dinged up late in the season and missed the playoff game in New England, and it showed. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel provide good depth, with the wild card being Tank Dell — who should return from an ugly leg injury at the end of the 2024 season.

What worked against the Texans in 2025 was the running game and offensive line, both of which have struggled since massive departures. Joe Mixon has not been healthy in the backfield, and the line regressed after Laremy Tuntil was traded to Washington. Houston feels it has done its job to fix both issues. David Montgomery was brought over via trade from the Lions to once again provide Houston with a RB1 it can trust. Meanwhile, three new likely starters were added to the OL. Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith were added in free agency, and the Texans used their first round pick on Keylan Rutledge out of Georgia Tech.

If Houston gets any improvement out of the OL and RB groups, which it certainly should, on a team that already went 12-5 in 2025, this could be an extremely dangerous team in the AFC.

The only negative I can point to with the Texans in 2026 is that they do play some cold weather games down the stretch, which was really only the case once prior to the New England game in 2025 — a 20-10 win in Kansas City in early December. The schedule sets up road games at Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia and Green Bay, all in December of later. Given how Stroud played in poor conditions in New England, some of those games could prove difficult depending on the weather, and how good those defenses turn out to be.

I still feel this team should be able to split those games, and more importantly, avoid an 0-3 start. The Texans only play two true road games before November 8th, and they happen to come in the division at Indianapolis and Tennessee. Houston went 5-1 in the AFC South last season, and won in both Indy and Nashville.

I have zero questions about this defense, and am counting on some offensive improvement from a 12-win team that’s consistently proven it can win double digit games. Give me the Texans OVER 9.5 wins as one of my top NFL win totals for 2026.

NFL Pick: Texans OVER 9.5 Wins (-145)