In 2023 the Ravens went 13-4 and it was Super Bowl or bust. But Baltimore came up short in the AFC Championship Game to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Ravens slightly regressed the following season, going 12-5, and got knocked out of the postseason a round earlier.

In 2025 the wheels fell off. Baltimore blew some games it probably shouldn’t have, despite being one of the highest power rated teams in the NFL. The Ravens had a chance to right their wrongs, but the end result was terribly disappointing. A missed field goal as time expired against the Steelers in Week 18 knocked the Ravens out of the postseason all together, finishing with a losing 8-9 record. John Harbaugh is now coaching the New York Giants, and it’s a new era in Baltimore.

So what can we expect from the Ravens in 2026?

Baltimore Ravens O/U 11.5 Wins

The winningest coach in Ravens history is gone, and former assistant Jesse Minter takes over as the new head coach. A new voice was needed, as the start to the 2025 season did damage that set the tone for the entire season. The Ravens were up by 15 points late in the fourth quarter against the Bills. Everything went wrong, and they lost the game 41-40 in impossible fashion.

Things only got worse from there, as Baltimore started the season 1-5, and never completely got it back together. The 7-4 finish to the season shows that the Ravens are still a good team, but can they return to elite form in 2026? There are a lot of moving parts to assume they can do so.

Aside from the new coaching, Lamar Jackson will turn 30 years old before the postseason begins. We know his injury history, and when he’s off the field, this is a completely different team. Derrick Henry is a beast, and has been remarkably durable throughout his career. But Henry will turn 33 on the last day of the regular season. Baltimore is relying on aging stars in the backfield.

Mark Andrews, who turns 31 prior to Week 1, has always been reliable, but saw a steep decline in 2025. Andrews had a career-low 422 receiving yards despite playing in all 17 games. Isaiah Likely departs for the Giants with Harbaugh, leaving a lot on Andrews’ plate, and unproven depth behind him. Zay Flowers got paid and is the most dangerous option in the passing game, but the depth beyond him is lacking at receiver.

The Ravens were slightly below average on defense last season, and the addition of Trey Hendrickson from within the division should certainly help the pass rush. The defense has potential, but is far from the league’s elite.

It’s difficult to poke major holes in Baltimore and say it’ll be another losing season, like it was it 2025. At the same time, everything would need to go perfectly in terms of the transition to a new head coach along with the health of the aging top-end talent to say this team can return to the elite of the AFC.

Aside from the 12 and 13 win seasons, the Ravens have won 11 or fewer games in four of the last six seasons. We’re asking a lot of Minter to step in and make this a 12-plus win team right away. It’ll also require near perfect luck in terms of health from the key players to have a chance of winning 12 or more games.

The Ravens should get better, but we’re talking about a four-win improvement to cash the over on their win total in 2026. Baltimore lost three games by a touchdown or less in 2025 — flip all of those, and this was still an 11-6 team. I just feel way too much has to go right in 2026 for the Ravens to go over their lofty win total of 11.5 games. I’ll say they hit a couple speed bumps and back the Ravens to go UNDER 11.5 wins.

NFL Pick: Ravens UNDER 11.5 Wins (-140)