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After years of domination by the Kansas City Chiefs, the AFC crowned a new champion.

Well, kind of.

The New England Patriots, who entered last season winners of the conference nine times this millennium, won it for a 10th time. Six years without an AFC title doesn’t exactly qualify as a drought, but rather a quick return to the top for one of the league’s most decorated franchises.

The question now is: Can the Patriots repeat the feat and go back-to-back? It will be tough in a crowded AFC filled with MVP-caliber quarterbacks and some teams on the rise — remember, the Patriots themselves were a worst-to-first team last year.

Consider: My NFL Projection Model doesn’t forecast any AFC team to reach 11 wins, and 11 different teams are pegged to win at least eight. That’s a lot of consolidation, meaning there will be little margin for error. Go on a sustained losing streak, and your playoff hopes could quickly be on life support.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the model’s projected win totals before breaking things down division by division to shape up the crowded AFC field.

AFC East

It’s a two-horse race in the AFC East this year, with each team harboring realistic championship aspirations. The Patriots are the defending division champs after dethroning quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills last season en route to representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Since then, they’ve added A.J. Brown, the true WR1 that MVP runner-up Drake Maye and the offense were missing. Still, my model doesn’t think the Patriots improved enough, projecting the Bills to win their sixth AFC East title in seven years.

As you can see in the chart, however, the margin is razor thin. And, personally, I’m worried about how much of the Bills’ success depends on the now 30-year-old shoulder — and legs — of Allen. His supporting cast is weaker than you’d expect from a Super Bowl contender. The defense ranks outside of the top 10, per my model, and will need Ed Oliver and the defensive line to stay healthy to hit their ceiling.

For the Patriots to overcome the Bills, Maye will probably need to ascend into the elite echelon of quarterbacks that his division rival occupies. Last year, Maye was one of the league’s most efficient passers and utilized his legs well, albeit against a weak schedule. But with the addition of Brown, fellow receiver Romeo Doubs and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, I expect another good year for the offense. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots were a better team this year compared to last, but their record doesn’t reflect it. Either way, the ceiling of this team is probably the highest in the division, and I expect them to make a deep run in January.

As for the bottom of the division, well, we don’t need to spend a lot of time here. My model projects the combined win totals of the Jets and Dolphins to be lower than both the Bills and Patriots, so that gives you an idea of how far away they are from contending.

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AFC North

It’s a new era in the AFC North, with coaching mainstays Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh off on new adventures. But even without Harbaugh running the show in Baltimore, the Ravens return in 2026 as division favorites. My model is counting on quarterback Lamar Jackson to bounce back from a down year, in which he never seemed to be fully healthy. New coach Jesse Minter is taking over a defense that really struggled to create pressure, which led to a below-average defense (20th) in my adjusted EPA metric. Their biggest issue was coming in 27th in pressure rate without blitzing. If Minter’s defensive scheme can boost that number — it’ll help to have Trey Hendrickson in the fold — Jackson and this Ravens squad will be the team to beat in the division.

However, if the Ravens falter even a little, the Bengals are well-positioned to wear their first division crown since 2022. We know how good QB Joe Burrow and the offense can be when healthy, and now the defense should be better after trading for star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence as well as signing ex-Seahawks edge rusher Boye Mafe. Yes, Hendrickson is gone, but the defensive line can be solid with these additions. It’s also notable that in the second half of last season, the Bengals ranked 14th in defensive success rate. If they can play like that all year, another trip to the Super Bowl is well within range for Burrow.

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Last among the contenders in this division are the reigning champs, who are now led by Mike McCarthy. The veteran coach has his flaws, but he’s a floor-raiser who is reconnecting with Aaron Rodgers and pairing the QB with a solid offensive line and plenty of weapons, and that should all lead to good results. And when you factor in the depth and star power of the defensive line, you can start to make a case for the Steelers sneaking into the playoffs yet again. However, age is quite a bit of a concern here, especially on the defensive side of the ball, so the bottom could certainly fall out.

As for the Browns, while they have some exciting young talent, until they field even an average quarterback, they’re not going to be competing for anything other than another high draft pick.

AFC South

There is Super Bowl buzz around the Houston Texans, who are hoping to replicate the Seahawks’ formula of riding an elite defense and a good-enough offense to a championship. I’m skeptical, though, as I just can’t get behind this Texans’ offensive line. The Seahawks were in a much better situation last year and had a proven offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak (now the Raiders head coach). Should the Texans be division favorites? Definitely. But I’ll hold off on the Super Bowl claims until I see QB CJ Stroud operate in a few more clean pockets.

The Jaguars’ win total projection is lower than Houston’s, but I think the Jaguars have the highest ceiling in the division. After trading for Jakobi Meyers at the deadline last year, the Jaguars offense really took off. From Week 10 onward, they ranked 8th in EPA per play after ranking 21st before that. Maybe that was the Meyers impact, or perhaps it was QB Trevor Lawrence starting to jell with coach Liam Coen’s offense. Whatever the reason, if the offense can continue to play at that rate, they’ll give the Texans a run for their money.

While my model projects the Colts to finish under .500, they can’t just be dismissed. After all, their offense was on a historic pace before a mid-season injury to QB Daniel Jones derailed Indy’s season, causing the Colts to fall from their perch as the odds-on favorite to win the No. 1 seed to missing the playoffs. Can they get back to that level of play? I’m skeptical. While Jones is reportedly looking like his old self despite coming off an Achilles injury, we didn’t see quite enough from him to make me believe he was transforming his career in Year 7. Meanwhile, the defense’s front seven leaves plenty to be desired; I’m not sure they’ll get enough pressure on the quarterback.

Lastly, while QB Cam Ward could take a big Year 2 leap with some new weapons and new OC Brian Daboll calling the shots, until we see more from the 2025 No. 1 pick, we can’t realistically expect the Titans to impact the playoff picture.

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Robert Mays

AFC West

We saved the best for last. The division has it all: elite quarterbacks, elite defenses, elite coaches and even the No. 1 overall pick.

So, who wins? As you saw, my model is giving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt, though it doesn’t even see them getting to 10 wins. That’s because they face the 11th-hardest schedule in football, on top of the questions they have about Mahomes’ health, as well as the talent (or lack thereof) at wide receiver and in the secondary. However, the addition of running back Kenneth Walker III should get them the explosives on the ground that they haven’t had for quite some time. And an explosive running game with Mahomes at quarterback is something to fear.

I’ll be honest: I was a little surprised the model didn’t like the Chargers more. But they play the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL, which is largely why they’re projected to win fewer games than the Chiefs but actually have better Super Bowl odds. The model sees them as the better overall team. And that’s because this offense, now led by OC Mike McDaniel, is loaded with QB Justin Herbert, an explosive running back room, and hopefully a healthy offensive line. Last year, when left tackle Joe Alt was on the field, the Chargers offense ranked top five in efficiency. When he was off the field, they dropped to the bottom five. If they can stay healthy, this offense will be fun.

And now we get to the team that was maybe a QB injury away from going to the Super Bowl last year. Sorry, Broncos fans, but I’m standing by the model on this one. Yes, the Broncos won the division, but they played a light schedule, and the offense was … fine. They have added receiver Jaylen Waddle, and I love how he adds to this offense, but I keep coming back to Bo Nix. Last year, the QB ranked outside of the top 20 in both EPA per dropback and dropback success rate when adjusting for opponent. If that’s the level of QB play you’re going to get, it’s hard to pick Denver in a division with Mahomes and Herbert — no matter how good the defense is. Keep in mind, however, the model doesn’t see a huge gap between any of these teams: It has the Broncos winning the division 28 percent of the time compared to 34 and 31 percent for the Chiefs and Chargers.

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Finally, while I expect the Raiders to be a vastly improved team this season under Kubiak — I’m excited to see what he can do with Fernando Mendoza when the No. 1 pick eventually takes over for Kirk Cousins — this division is too tough to expect Vegas to make waves.