The 2026 NFL season is almost here, and the AFC looks loaded from top to bottom. Every division has at least one legitimate contender, while several teams could make the jump from afterthought to playoff team. Here is my division-by-division breakdown and prediction for all 16 AFC teams.
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AFC East
Dec 21, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) warms up prior to a game against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Buffalo Bills
The Bills remain the safest bet in this division. Josh Allen is still the centerpiece, but the biggest change comes with Joe Brady taking over as head coach and Jim Leonhard running the defense. Buffalo also added DJ Moore to a receiving corps that desperately needed another difference-maker. The Bills won 12 games last season, and I expect them to remain near the top of the AFC. Prediction: 11-6, AFC East champions.
New England Patriots
It’s difficult to bet against the reigning AFC champions after what they accomplished last season. Drake Maye has another year of experience, and New England added A.J. Brown to an offense that already averaged 28.8 points per game in 2025. The Patriots will have enormous expectations, but I expect them to remain a serious contender. Prediction: 11-6, playoff team.
New York Jets
The Jets are better than the Dolphins, but that’s not saying much. Geno Smith returns after leading the NFL in interceptions last season, while New York has completely reshaped its roster and enters 2026 with three first-round picks. There is enough talent here to surprise people, but the quarterback play has to improve dramatically. Prediction: 6-11.
Miami Dolphins
Miami feels like a rebuilding team after moving on from Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. Malik Willis now has an enormous opportunity, but expecting everything to click immediately is asking a lot. The Dolphins could be competitive in stretches, but this looks like the toughest roster in the division. Prediction: 5-12.
Division winner: Buffalo Bills
AFC North
Dec 7, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) warms up before the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are my pick to bounce back after an ugly 8-9 season. John Harbaugh is gone, and Jesse Minter takes over, while Lamar Jackson gets a new offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle. Baltimore also added Trey Hendrickson and could get Nnamdi Madubuike back, potentially transforming a defense that struggled badly last year. Prediction: 11-6, AFC North champions.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow’s health remains the biggest variable, but Cincinnati finally appears serious about fixing its defense. The Bengals added Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger before acquiring Dexter Lawrence. If Burrow stays healthy, this could be a dangerous team. Prediction: 10-7, playoff team.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are fascinating because Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers could either make this look like a brilliant move or a desperate one. Pittsburgh also added Michael Pittman Jr., giving Rodgers another legitimate target. The defense has to improve, though, after ranking 26th in total defense last season. Prediction: 9-8.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are still rebuilding. Todd Monken takes over as head coach, the quarterback situation remains unsettled, and Cleveland traded Myles Garrett after his record-setting 2025 season. Jared Verse gives the defense a new centerpiece, but I don’t expect the Browns to contend yet. Prediction: 5-12.
Division winner: Baltimore Ravens
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AFC South
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws during the first half of an AFC Wild Card Round game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Houston Texans
The Texans are one of the most difficult teams to project. They went 12-5 last season and have an outstanding defense, but C.J. Stroud needs to rediscover his rookie form. Houston also completely revamped its offensive line and added David Montgomery to improve the running game. If the line finally stabilizes, the Texans could be a Super Bowl contender. Prediction: 11-6, AFC South champions.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville won 13 games last season and remains one of the AFC’s most intriguing teams. Travis Etienne is gone, leaving Bhayshul Tuten and others to replace his production, while Travis Hunter’s two-way role will be fascinating to watch. If Brian Thomas Jr. takes a step forward, and Parker Washington continues his ascent, this offense could be dangerous. Prediction: 10-7, playoff team.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts’ entire season may depend on Daniel Jones staying healthy. Indianapolis saw its offense fall apart when Jones was injured last year, and the team is also dealing with major health questions involving Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner. There’s talent here, but too much uncertainty for me to trust them as a playoff team. Prediction: 8-9.
Tennessee Titans
Everything revolves around Cam Ward. Tennessee brought in Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll to help develop its young quarterback and added veteran receiver Wan’Dale Robinson along with first-round pick Carnell Tate. I expect improvement, but the Titans are still a year away from seriously competing. Prediction: 6-11.
Division winner: Houston Texans
AFC West
Jan 17, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) calls an audible during the first quarter of an AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
Denver Broncos
Denver is my pick to win the AFC West. The Broncos went 14-3 last season, largely kept their roster intact, and added Jaylen Waddle to give Bo Nix another elite weapon. The biggest question is Nix’s health after his ankle injury, but if he’s healthy, Denver has the most complete roster in the division. Prediction: 12-5, AFC West champions.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off a stunning 6-11 season, so there’s nowhere to go but up. Patrick Mahomes remains the ultimate reason for optimism, but Kansas City has more questions than we’ve seen in years. I expect a bounce-back season, just not another dominant run through the division. Prediction: 10-7, playoff team.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers should once again be competitive with Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, but their offensive line health remains a concern. The addition of tight end David Njoku gives Herbert more options, and the defense should keep them in games. Still, I don’t see them winning this division. Prediction: 9-8.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders may be the AFC’s most intriguing long-term project. No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is behind veteran Kirk Cousins for now, while Las Vegas also made significant offensive-line upgrades. If Cousins struggles, the pressure to unleash Mendoza will become enormous. Prediction: 6-11.
Division winner: Denver Broncos
Playoff Field
Aug 15, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) on field against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half of the pre season game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
My AFC playoff field would be Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston and Denver as division winners, with New England and Cincinnati, and Kansas City earning wild-card spots.
The AFC should be extremely competitive, but I see Denver, Baltimore and Houston as the three teams best positioned to challenge Buffalo and New England for the conference crown. There are plenty of variables that could change the picture once the regular season begins, but on paper, the AFC looks like it could be an absolute battle from Week 1 through the playoffs.
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