The Pittsburgh Steelers came in at No. 21 in ESPN’s final preseason power rankings, and in a list released today, that’s where the team remained. But with just four days until the NFL season kicks off at Lumen Field in Seattle, ESPN gave a breakdown for each team, including their best- and worst-case scenarios, as powered by their Football Power Index (FPI). For the Steelers, FPI’s best-case scenario is an 11-6 finish, a one-game improvement from last season and a record that would surely get the Steelers in the playoffs, while the worst-case scenario was a disastrous 6-11 finish.
ESPN’s Brooke Pryor also wrote the season would be successful for the Steelers if they’re able to win a playoff game under Mike McCarthy. McCarthy is taking over from Mike Tomlin and inheriting a postseason win drought for the franchise that dates back to 2016. While the goal in Pittsburgh every year should be to win the Super Bowl, finally breaking the playoff win drought would be a good start to the McCarthy era.
The best-and-worst case scenario makes sense, though the worst-case scenario is on a more extreme end of the spectrum. If the Steelers win just six games, injuries likely played a big role. If a relatively healthy Steelers team finishes just 6-11, McCarthy might find himself on the hot seat less than 12 months after taking the job.
An 11-6 finish feels more likely given the Steelers’ recent success and the improvements they made on the roster from a 10-win team last season. But the Steelers do play a schedule that features a stretch against four playoff teams in Weeks 10-15 that could make-or-break their playoff hopes this season. Getting off to a fast start is going to be essential for the Steelers, but if they can, double-digit wins shouldn’t be discounted. However, FPI ranks the overall schedule as the eighth-easiest in the NFL.
FPI gave the Steelers just a 39.2% chance to make the postseason, and even lower 13.2% chance to win the AFC North. The projected wins came in at 8.5, meaning FPI projects an 8-9 or 9-8 season as most likely, with the best- and worst-case scenarios just a few deviations away.
If the Steelers are a six-win team, things would have gone horribly wrong in McCarthy’s first season one way or another. But that’s why it’s the worst-case scenario. 11 wins feels like a low ceiling for a best-case scenario, but Pittsburgh plays in a tough division and has a tough conference slate this year. Making the playoffs is an accomplishment whether it’s with 10, 11 or 12 wins, and getting into the field is ultimately what matters, and 11 wins would certainly be enough to do it.