The Buffalo Bills open their season on the road against the Houston Texans on Sunday, September 13, 2026, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM EDT at Reliant Stadium. Simulation site Dimers projects a narrow Bills win, with a predicted final score of Bills 24, Texans 22, and gives Buffalo a 51.4% win probability against 48.6% for Houston.

Buffalo’s receiver room is banged up entering Week 1

The Bills have spent the final weeks of camp managing injuries across their receiving corps. Khalil Shakir has been out of drills since August 20 and missed Buffalo’s final two preseason games with an undisclosed issue, though CBS Sports’ Matt Zenitz reported there’s cautious optimism he’ll be ready for the opener. The Bills are set to release their first official Week 1 injury report, which should offer more clarity on his status.

Keon Coleman is trending in a more positive direction. He sprained his right foot/toe in Buffalo’s preseason opener on August 15 and spent time in a walking boot, but he shed the boot last week and returned to practice on Tuesday, giving him nearly two weeks to round back into form before facing Houston.

The backfield has its own question mark

Running back Ty Johnson has been dealing with a lower-leg injury dating back to early August and has yet to return to practice, though head coach Joe Brady said Johnson has resumed running and sprinting and remains in good spirits. Johnson’s absence isn’t expected to significantly alter Buffalo’s backfield usage — James Cook is the clear lead back, and Ray Davis is considered his more direct backup as a rusher, with Johnson typically playing a smaller passing-down role even when healthy.

Game detailsTeams: Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansDate: Sunday, September 13, 2026Time: 1:00 PM EDTVenue: Reliant Stadium, Houston, TexasCompetition: NFL Week 1Odds and win probability (Dimers)TeamWin %Spread PriceBuffalo Bills51.4%50¢ (Bills -1.5)Houston Texans48.6%-114

Predicted score: Bills 24, Texans 22

Anytime touchdown probabilitiesBillsProbabilityTexansProbabilityJames Cook49.3%David Montgomery49.5%Josh Allen40.5%Nico Collins35.4%DJ Moore26.6%Woody Marks28.0%Dalton Kincaid22.7%Kayshon Boutte22.7%Khalil Shakir22.0%Dalton Schultz22.3%Projected passingStarting QBProj. YardsJosh Allen (BUF)224C.J. Stroud (HOU)225NFL Prediction market sign-up bonuses

Bills and Texans fans across the US can use prediction markets to trade on the NFL opener as an alternative to standard betting. Here are the top options and available promo codes for new users:

PlatformNFL Eligible?September Sign-Up BonusVerified Promo CodesPolymarketYes$50CUSE, MASS, OREGON, SILIVEKalshiYes$25SYRACUSE, OREGONLIVE1, MASSLIVE1, SILIVEThe bottom line

With Coleman trending toward full health and Shakir’s status still pending Wednesday’s official injury report, Buffalo’s receiver rotation could look different by kickoff than it does today. James Cook projects as the workhorse in the backfield regardless of Johnson’s availability, and Dimers has the Bills as slim road favorites in a game its model expects to be tightly contested.

These predictions and probabilities are based on simulations and pricing available at the time of publication and are subject to change as official injury designations are released.

Win probabilities and pricing reflect simulation and market data at the time of writing and are subject to change. All times listed are EDT.

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