I’m back with another set of Pittsburgh Steelers stat predictions for the 2026 season. My best guesses for the numbers across all facets of the team: passing, rushing, receiving, sacks, and interceptions.

This list generally assumes good health and that each player suits up for most, if not the entire, season. That’s unlikely to hold true for the entire roster, but predicting injuries is tough to do.

As always, share your thoughts in the comments below. After the year, we’ll revisit this list to evaluate what I got right and wrong.

Passing Game

Player
Completions
Attempts
Yards
TDs
INTs

Aaron Rodgers (16 starts)
347
536
3,675
25
11

Mason Rudolph (1 start)
29
40
296
1
1

– Expecting an uptick in passing volume under Mike McCarthy compared to Arthur Smith. The Steelers’ offense should also run more plays than they did a year ago after being near league-bottom in time of possession.

A more concentrated effort to throw downfield pushes down Rodgers’ completion percentage and pushes up his yards per attempt and interception numbers. Not dramatically, but a change from last year.

– I’ll project Rodgers sits out one game. That puts Rudolph in the lineup for one spot start. No pass attempts for Will Howard or Drew Allar in this projection.

Running Game

Player
Carries
Yards
YPC
TD

Rico Dowdle
191
865
4.5
5

Jaylen Warren
149
687
4.6
4

Lew Nichols
35
143
4.1
1

Eli Heidenreich
31
124
4.0
0

Aaron Rodgers
15
46
3.1
1

Kaden Wetjen
7
53
7.6
1

– Projected out about a 56/44 split between Dowdle and Warren. That keeps both of their numbers relatively down and robs Dowdle of making NFL history by rushing for 1,000 yards in three straight seasons with three different teams.

– This also projects a slight uptick in rushing attempts compared to last year based on the offense that should have more volume. Still, this offense will have a heavier passing slant than last season.

– Heidenreich won’t see much work unless there’s an injury, but he still should see a handful of offensive snaps. Wetjen will handle a couple of end-around carries.

– This also projects that Lew Nichols sees a midseason call-up when injuries happen and records his first NFL carries – and first touchdown.

Receiving

Player
Catches
Yards
YPC
TD

DK Metcalf
74
1,082
14.6
6

Pat Freiermuth
65
723
11.1
8

Michael Pittman Jr.
62
647
10.4
4

Jaylen Warren
46
322
7.0
1

Roman Wilson
28
332
11.9
1

Germie Bernard
25
259
10.4
2

Rico Dowdle
19
107
5.7
0

Darnell Washington
20
184
9.2
2

Riley Nowakowski
14
99
7.1
1

Kaden Wetjen
9
107
11.9
0

Ben Skowronek
5
51
10.2
0

Eli Heidenreich
5
25
5.0
0

Robert Tonyan
4
23
5.8
1

– Remember, I match all passing numbers to receiving numbers. If you want to change my predictions, you have to equal up completions to receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

– Metcalf bounces back with improved numbers over a projected 17 games. He leads the team in receptions and yards while finishing second in touchdowns.

– Freiermuth returns to form by tying a career high in receptions, coming close to doing so in yards, and setting a new personal best with eight scores. His chemistry with Aaron Rodgers is clear, and having the same quarterback in back-to-back years for the first time in his career will be significant. On the other side, Darnell Washington gets the squeeze with a regression in production, although he does score twice after entering the year with just two career scores.

– More middling numbers for Pittman, who finishes third on the team in catches and receptions. Still, there’s a clear tier down from there. The running back position won’t be as active in the passing game as last year, but Warren still posts a healthy number.

– Roman Wilson and Germie Bernard have similar numbers. Wilson a little more downfield action while Bernard could see more work in the short/intermediate game. The numbers aren’t bad for a collective No. 3 position.

Sacks

Player
Sacks

T.J. Watt
12.0

Nick Herbig
9.5

Alex Highsmith
9.0

Keeanu Benton
5.0

Cam Heyward
4.5

Derrick Harmon
3.5

Patrick Queen
2.0

Jalen Ramsey
2.0

Jack Sawyer
1.5

Yahya Black
1.5

Jaquan Brisker
1.0

Payton Wilson
1.0

Sebastian Joseph-Day
0.5

– A total of 53 for the defense, for those scoring at home.

– Watt returns with a better season and returns to double digits even if it’s far from the elite numbers he once posted. Herbig and Highsmith aren’t far behind. Obviously, the health of those three will go a long way in determining their final totals.

– Benton doesn’t see a large step forward, but the top three EDGE rushers putting up strong numbers keep his figure down a bit. Still, a five-sack season would be solid if the pressure is consistent and run defense is better.

Heyward has a goal of reaching 100 sacks. Sitting on 92, he gets a little more than halfway there with a 4.5-sack season. It’s not gaudy but excellent by history’s market. Harmon’s pass rush is still an issue, so he doesn’t see a big jump here after recording three of them across 12 games a season ago.

– The linebackers and defensive backs get pretty active here, too. Patrick Graham won’t hold back this year.

Interceptions

Player
INTs

Jalen Ramsey
3

Asante Samuel Jr.
2

Jamel Dean
1

Joey Porter Jr.
1

T.J. Watt
1

Jaquan Brisker
1

Payton Wilson
1

Keeanu Benton
1

– As I’ve written and said, I expect turnovers to be down under Graham. Here, Pittsburgh picks off 11 after notching 17 of them a year ago. Still going with Ramsey to lead the group. Playing in the middle of the field, be it cornerback or safety, will help him be around the ball more often.

Despite not entering the year as a starter, Samuel still finishes with a pair thanks to his great ball skills. It’s also hard to believe Dean will be healthy all season after never playing a full year in his career.

– The rest of the list, including Porter, record just one.