What to expect from Arch Manning and Julian Sayin in Texas-Ohio State rematch

Arch Manning and Julian Sayin arrived at their respective programs with great expectations.

Manning was the No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2023 and signed with Texas in a well-publicized recruiting battle. Sayin was the No. 1 quarterback in the 2024 class and signed with Alabama before transferring to Ohio State after Nick Saban’s retirement.

Last year, when Ohio State hosted Texas, the two QBs were the headliners, but their performances didn’t live up to the hype, as each team’s defense stole the show. Ohio State won 14-7, with Sayin throwing for 126 yards and one touchdown in his first extended playing time and Manning throwing for 170 yards, one touchdown and one interception in his third career start.

Neither team wanted to put its young quarterback in a difficult position, but that will be a different story this season. Both sides see completely different players when they look at the film, which should, according to both coaches, lead to better quarterback play.

“You see the level of confidence that both guys are playing with, the presence in the pocket, you notice their confidence to use their legs,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “You see the trust and timing. It’s a pretty drastic difference for the two players the second time around going up against one another. It should be pretty high-level quarterback play on Saturday.”

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Last year’s game by the numbers

After last season’s win, Day said he felt like he could’ve put more responsibility on Sayin’s shoulders. His 20 attempts were the fewest of the season (when he played the entire game), and the 37 percent dropback rate tied for Ohio State’s lowest of the season (with the Michigan game), according to TruMedia.

The Michigan game, though, was played in a second-half snowstorm with Ohio State leading by multiple possessions. Texas was not, but the Buckeyes were stuck with bad field position throughout much of the game. Ohio State started six of its 11 drives inside the 20-yard line, with five starting inside the 10.

“We had poor field position to start, so that played into it as well,” Day said. “You have to be aggressive, but you also have to be smart. That’s the balance.”

Ohio State attempted one pass 15 yards or more downfield, according to TruMedia, and it resulted in a 40-yard touchdown to Carnell Tate, which was essentially the difference in the game.

Texas, meanwhile, attempted eight passes of 15 yards or more, completing three for 90 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Manning struggled with Ohio State’s coverage disguises and threw one interception (and had another turnover-worthy throw, according to Pro Football Focus).

“I thought their ability to disguise coverages in the first half was at an elite level,” Sarkisian said after the game. “I wouldn’t say a good level — an elite level.”

Though Manning threw more, mostly because Texas was behind most of the game, the Horns’ 50.7 percent dropback rate was their fourth-lowest of the season, showing that the staff still didn’t want to ask too much of him.

“Not a lot of good memories from a year ago,” Manning said. “Hoping to have a good game this year.”

Why they are two different QBs now

Neither quarterback is playing into the high-profile hype of Saturday night’s showdown. Both provided vanilla answers when asked how different they feel going into this year’s game.

Sayin: “I think just having last year’s experience definitely helps you as a quarterback in kind of every aspect of your game.”

Manning: “A year better.”

There’s nothing vanilla about the way both are playing now.

Sayin completed 77 percent of his attempts last season, the third-highest mark in college football history, and he was a Heisman Trophy finalist. He’s been praised by his teammates, as well as Day, for his complete control of both the offensive game plan and the huddle. The 6-foot-1, 214-pound California native doesn’t jump off the film physically, but his ball placement has been elite since he stepped onto the field as a second-year player in 2025.

Day has also seen growth in the way his quarterback has emerged as a leader.

“He gets together with the receivers, the offensive line and talks through things,” Day said.

Manning didn’t post gaudy statistics last year — he ranked 31st nationally with 243.3 passing yards per game — but he got better as the season progressed. In his last six games, he threw 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions, and he enters the season No. 3 on Dane Brugler’s list of top players for the 2027 NFL Draft.

“He was playing some really good football at the end of the season and did some good things in the first game of the year, this past Saturday,” Day said. “He can beat you with his legs, beat you downfield, and he can make throws when he needs to. He’s really improved.”

Ohio State defensive end Kenyatta Jackson has noticed the change.

“He looks more polished than the first game last season,” he said.

The biggest question for each on Saturday: Can they lead their team to victory against an elite defense?

Last year, Sayin faced two top-20 defenses, Indiana and Miami, and completed 43 of 64 passes for 545 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions — and both games ended in losses.

As for Manning, he played four top-20 defenses and went 2-2, with losses to Ohio State and Georgia and wins over Oklahoma and Texas A&M. In those games, he completed 79 of 129 passes for 766 yards with four touchdown passes and two interceptions. He also ran for one touchdown against Texas A&M.

Prediction: Texas 27, Ohio State 24

With two experienced quarterbacks, this will likely look much different than it did a year ago. Ohio State has full confidence in Sayin, much like the Longhorns do in Manning.

It’s still early in the season, but both rushing attacks struggled a bit in the opener, especially when you factor in the overmatched opponents; the Longhorns ran for 156 yards on 36 carries against Texas State, while Ohio State ran for 237 yards on 35 attempts against Ball State, but 114 of those came on two carries. That will need to improve, but this game will likely come down to which defense can pressure the other quarterback and which QB can make the most plays on third down. And a lot of that will depend on the offensive line, and I have more confidence in Texas’ offensive tackles to hold up than Ohio State’s.

Ohio State right tackle Phillip Daniels may have a short leash on Saturday, and I can’t put his poor play against Ball State out of my mind. If Texas’ defensive line can get pressure and Manning takes care of the ball this time, the Longhorns should finally get their revenge on the Buckeyes.

A sneaky important matchup, though, will be Manning against Ohio State’s linebackers. The Buckeyes did a good job limiting Manning’s running ability a year ago when he rushed for just 38 yards on 10 carries. They will need to do so again on Saturday.