The Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) head to Foxborough on Sunday looking to continue their surprising start to the season when they line up against the New England Patriots (2-2). The Raiders sit second in the AFC West behind the undefeated Chiefs, while New England sits in second in the AFC East behind Josh Allen and the Bills.
Marketed as their biggest game since moving to Las Vegas, the Raiders lost Sunday to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, 30-27. Vegas led 13-10 at the half but gave up 20 fourth quarter points to lose their first game of the season after three straight wins to open the campaign. Kirk Cousins completed 31 of 52 passes for 365 yards in the loss. The veteran signal-caller threw two touchdown passes to give him 11 on the season. Drake Maye and the Patriots resurrected their season with a 29-26 win in Buffalo over the Bills. New England trailed late in the fourth quarter, 26-21 but Efton Chism III caught a 23-yard touchdown pass to propel the Pats to the win. The aforementioned Maye delivered his best performance of the season, throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 54 yards.
Sunday’s game pits a Vegas squad looking to prove their strong start is no fluke against a Pats’ team looking to build on its upset of Buffalo and show that its Week 4 performance was a sign of growth rather than a one-week anomaly.
The head-to-head history is also telling. In their last four meetings, the Raiders are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread against the Patriots, with an Over/Under even split of the four games. The average final score for the four games is Vegas 22.8, New England 22.5 — a combined average of just 45.3 points per game. That’s right at the current line, and it reflects a series that has been low-scoring.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Raiders vs. PatriotsDate: Sunday, October 11, 2026Time: 1PM ETSite: Gillette StadiumCity: Foxborough, MATV/Streaming: CBS
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Latest Game Odds: Raiders vs. PatriotsThe latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:Moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders (+160), New England Patriots (-192)Spread: Patriots -3.5Total: 45.5
The Spread has collapsed after opening with the Patriots favored by eight and the Total set at 44.5.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Raiders and the Patriots:Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the MoneylineSpread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Raiders +3.5.Total: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Total UNDER 45.5.
The single most important factor in considering taking the Total UNDER 45.5 is how inept the Patriots’ offense has been. The numbers are genuinely staggering. New England ranks 32nd in offensive DVOA (-29.9%) — dead last in the entire league. They’re scoring just 12.0 points per game (31st), and they’ve managed only 2 total touchdowns in three games (32nd). Their touchdown percentage is 1.11% (32nd) — the worst mark in football by a wide margin. If you believe Drake Maye will struggle as he has for much of the season, add in the Raiders’ defensive profile and you can make that case for the UNDER. Vegas ranks eighth in points allowed (18.0 per game), third in sacks (8), third in quarterback pressures (34), first in pressure rate (35.42%), second in sack rate (8.33%), and fourth in interception rate defense (3.12%). They also rank eighth in completion percentage allowed (61.46%) and fourth in interceptions (3). It all adds up to a defense that gets after the quarterback and takes the ball away….which suppresses scoring.
To that end, the most compelling angle for the Under is the turnover differential between these two teams. New England has thrown 6 interceptions in three games — worst in the league — while Las Vegas has forced 3 interceptions (4th) and ranks 4th in interception rate defense (3.12%). Maye’s turnover issues are a profile problem, not bad luck, and he’s facing a Raiders’ defense that gets after the quarterback and takes the ball away.
Turnovers kill drives, and in a game with two struggling offenses, that’s exactly how you keep a total under 45.5. The Patriots’ defense has been so dominant on third down and in the red zone that opposing drives stall regardless.
Raiders should feel ‘confident’ despite loss to KC
Klint Kubiak may or may not have called his shot, but despite the loss, Mike Florio and Chris Simms continue to praise the “gutsy” Raiders for falling just short of a signature win.
Raiders vs. Patriots: Betting Trends and StatsThe Raiders are 4-0 against the spread this seasonThe Patriots are 2-1-1 against the spread this seasonLas Vegas is 2-2 to the OVER this seasonNew England is 1-3 to the OVER this seasonQuarterback matchup: Raiders vs. PatriotsLas Vegas: Kirk Cousins
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 1,026 Passing Yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 99.5 RTG, Sacked 5 timesNew England: Drake Maye
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 854 Passing Yards, 4 TDs, 7 INTs, 71.0 RTG, Sacked 10 timesRaiders vs. Patriots: Top PlaymakersRaidersRB Ashton Jeanty
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 78 carries for 264 Yds, 0 TDs / 19 receptions on 25 targets for 165 Yds, 2 TDsTE Brock Bowers
2026 Statistics: 2GP, 16 receptions on 24 targets for 202 Yds, 2 TDsTE Michael Mayer
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 20 receptions on 24 targets for 169 Yds, 1 TDPatriotsWR Mack Hollins
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 15 receptions on 20 targets for 209 Yds, 0 TDsRB Rhamondre Stevenson
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 44 carries for 163 Yds, 1 TD / 12 receptions on 16 targets for 90 Yds, 0 TDsWR Romeo Doubs
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 12 receptions on 20 targets for 203 Yds, 2 TDsRaiders vs. Patriots: Injury UpdateRaidersWR Jalen Nailor (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameC Trey Zuhn III (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameG Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) was inactive for Sunday’s game and is questionable for this Sunday’s gamePatriotsWR Mack Hollins (calf) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameTE Eli Raridon (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameDE Christian Barmore (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameCB Christian Gonzalez (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameCB Charles Woods (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s gameCB Channing Canada (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
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