Todays Matchup Details
Week 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Todays Game is on Thursday, October 8th
08/10/26 20:15:00 PM EST Kickoff
Positives for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Today
The Buccaneers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
,This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
,Since the start of last season, the feeble Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the largest rate in the NFL.
,Since the start of last season, the weak Cowboys defense has been gouged for the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a monstrous 8.83 yards.
,When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Dallas’s unit has been awful this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in football.
,The Cowboys are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
,In this contest, Javonte Williams is anticipated by the model to finish in the 94th percentile among RBs with 17.1 rush attempts.
,Javonte Williams has received 62.3% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
,At the present time, the 4th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (63.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cowboys.
,The predictive model expects CeeDee Lamb to accumulate 9.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
,CeeDee Lamb has been a big part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 25.3% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
,CeeDee Lamb has been one of the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 76.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.
,At the present time, the 4th-most run-focused offense in the league (43.9% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
,This year, the shaky Dallas Cowboys run defense has conceded a monstrous 156.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in football.
,Since the start of last season, the poor Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded a monstrous 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.
,Since the start of last season, the deficient Dallas Cowboys defense has been torched for the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a massive 9.68 yards.
,With an extraordinary 84.2% Route Participation% (97th percentile) this year, Cade Otton stands as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the league.
,The model projects Cade Otton to accrue 5.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
,As it relates to air yards, Cade Otton grades out in the towering 79th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a superb 26.0 per game.
,Dak Prescott has attempted 27.5 passes per game this year, checking in at the 76th percentile among quarterbacks.
,The Dallas Cowboys O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
,The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown weak efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 7.91 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.
,In this game, Jake Ferguson is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 78th percentile among tight ends with 4.1 targets.
,When it comes to air yards, Jake Ferguson ranks in the lofty 80th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a superb 28.0 per game.
,The Buccaneers defense has allowed the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (51.0) versus tight ends this year.
Negatives with the Dallas Cowboys Game Today
The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 56.1% pass rate.
,Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the projection model to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
,Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Cowboys, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 21.2 per game) this year.
,The Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
,The predictive model expects the Cowboys as the 10th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 41.7% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
,As far as a defense’s effect on pace, at 29.28 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Cowboys as the 5th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now.
,The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
,Javonte Williams’s 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year illustrates a material decrease in his running talent over last year’s 77.0 mark.
,Opposing teams have run for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 88.0 per game) vs. the Buccaneers defense this year.
,The Buccaneers defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 91.0) to WRs this year.
,Since the start of last season, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a puny 62.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL.
,When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Tampa Bay’s group of CBs has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 10th-best in the NFL.
,The Cowboys defensive tackles project as the 5th-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
,Cade Otton’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 74.8% to 60.7%.
,Dak Prescott has thrown for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (180.0) this season than he did last season (245.0).
,Jake Ferguson’s 11.1% Target% this year marks a material reduction in his passing game volume over last year’s 17.1% rate.
,Jake Ferguson has notched a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (21.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).
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