With the countdown to the 2025 Florida State season in full swing, we’re previewing the Seminoles’ schedule game-by-game. First up, the Seminoles’ season opener vs. Alabama.

It was seven years ago that Florida State and the Alabama Crimson Tide met in Atlanta — the former looking to prolong its dominant run, the latter looking to get back to one.

Spoiler alert: the first happened, the second did not.

The 2017 matchup is seen by many as the one that got away, with a no-call on pass interference preventing a touchdown and lead change for Florida State with 10 seconds left before halftime. On the next play, Ricky Aguayo’s potential game-tying field goal was blocked and the Seminoles wouldn’t come close to scoring again. Alabama blocked a punt, recovered an FSU fumble on the ensuing kickoff and essentially called game at the end of the third. And then, with the game out of reach, quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season after rupturing the patellar tendon in his left knee.

While it would be disingenuous to suggest that the outcome of the game (a 24-7 Florida State loss) is what led to the downfall of one of the more successful programs of the early 2010s, it is fair to say that it was the beginning — the first in a series of major setbacks that would compound to create the hole the Seminoles have been able to escape for just two 10-plus win seasons since (2022 and 2023).

Enter 2025, where both programs are looking for an early-season boost to erase the memories of a down year which for Alabama, meant a historic upset loss to Vanderbilt and an inability to sneak its way into the playoffs at the expense of a more deserving team for the second straight season.

The Seminoles enter into the matchup hoping to change the narrative around the program and, more broadly, the one around Mike Norvell’s tenure. While the singular result of the game, like 2017, won’t necessarily impact the full trajectory of either, it might very well be an indicator of just where things might end up.

Florida State vs. Alabama

Date: Saturday, Aug. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Location: Tallahassee, Florida

Previous matchup: 24-7, Alabama (Atlanta)

All-time series: 3-1-1, Alabama leads

Alabama: 2025 Team Preview

2024 record: 9-4 (5-3 SEC), lost to Michigan in Reliaquest Bowl

Two things to know:

After the offense sputtered in several games last season, Alabama brought in Ryan Grubb as its new offensive coordinator. Grubb has worked under Kalen DeBoer in some capacity for 12 of the last 16 years — most recently, as his offensive coordinator with the Washington Huskies.
Alabama is in its second year of running a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, a switch from the 3-4 days under Nick Saban, which aims to cut down spread offenses, eliminate overthinking and emphasize aggressiveness. A great breakdown via the Roll Tide Bama message boards:

The 4-2-5 Swarm defense Kane Wommack runs is an evolution from the 4-2-5 version that his dad Dave Wommack ran (and helped design) during his long coaching career (he retired after the 2016 season as the Ole Miss defensive coordinator under Hugh Freeze). If you want to get real technical, you could call it a 3-3-5 defense, but it’s pointless getting lost in the numbers of it either way. A basic note on this defense which will aid in understanding other parts of it, is the defensive alignment isn’t based on formation (where the TE lines up, for example), it’s based on the field and the boundary (sideline). One advantage of that is, if a player goes into motion and flips the “strong” side, the defense doesn’t have to make as many adjustments, since the strong side isn’t determined by alignment (though there will be some occasions when this defense will revert to the more traditional way and base it off the offensive formation such as the TE or WR alignment).

By design, this defense is less about containment and more about trying to create havoc in the offensive backfield. Sacks are great, but Saban used to preach, affecting the QB is just as important… This defense sets out to affect things behind the LOS, which often leads to positive things by other means.

It will have issues and occasional breakdowns. The aggressive nature alone will lend itself to the propensity to give up big plays at times. Teams with good QB play will get hot some games and move the chains at a frustrating pace.

Three key players

Quarterback Ty Simpson: The presumed front-runner for the starting quarterback spot, Simpson is a former five-star recruit who has patiently waited for his turn under center — making him a unicorn in the modern age of college football. He’s thrown just 39 passes over three seasons with Alabama, arguably his most notable appearance coming as he relieved a struggling Tyler Buchner (starting in place of the benched Jalen Milroe) vs. USF in 2023, securing the win with a late touchdown run to make it 17-3.

Wide receiver Ryan Williams: Perpetrator of one of the more athletic plays seen in recent memory, Williams established himself as an offensive threat early for Alabama — despite being just 17 years old, as you might remember hearing often last season. His true freshman season saw him put together a 865-yard, 48-catch and eight-touchdown campaign, worthy enough to earn first-team All-SEC honors and establish him as one of the country’s most hyped receivers entering 2025.

EDGE LT Overton: A projected round two selection, Overton opted to return to Alabama for his senior season. In 2024, he racked up 42 tackles, two sacks, one pass breakup, one fumble recovery, and one forced fumble. A versatile athlete, he lines up in the Bandit (hybrid lineman/edge rusher) role.

Florida State vs. Alabama: Game preview, predictions

Best Case

Narratives (outside of those levied by the most optimistic of FSU fans and most spiteful of Alabama haters) are shattered as Florida State pulls off just its second-ever win vs. Alabama. Tommy Castellanos, comfortable in the offensive attack that welcomed him into the collegiate ranks, shines in his debut as new-look schemes on each side of the ball work their magic. The reason Ty Simpson failed to make a single start in three seasons with the Crimson Tide becomes obvious as multiple interceptions force DeBoer to turn to true freshman Keelon Russell.

Realistic Case

Florida State comes out swinging, utilizing enough scouting and well-timed trickery to make things interesting early and keep them that way well into the third quarter. In the end, though, the game plays out similarly to FSU’s 2022 opener vs. Notre Dame where the Seminoles lack the final oomph to pull off the upset. The moral victory satiates the desire for competent football and, unlike 2022, Florida State carries that momentum into the following week’s matchup vs. an FCS program.

Worst Case

Pain upon pain upon pain. The 2024 season isn’t in the rearview, it is still alive and well, and the first example of it is a blowout at the hands of the Crimson Tide in the first game inside a newly-renovated Doak Campbell Stadium. The Seminoles get a paltry, pity field goal towards the end of the game to prevent a blowout and the tone of the season gets set in a terrible way.

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Most likely outcome vs. Alabama?

2025 FSU football schedule

Saturday, Aug. 30: Alabama Crimson Tide (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Channel: ABC

Saturday, Sep. 6: East Texas A&M Lions (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)

Time: 12 p.m. ET

Channel: ACC Network

Saturday, Sep. 13: BYE

Saturday, Sep. 20: Kent State Golden Flashes (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)

Friday, Sep. 26: Virginia Cavaliers (Scott Stadium, Charlottesville)

Time: 7 p.m.

Channel: ESPN

Saturday, Oct. 4: Miami Hurricanes (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)

Saturday, Oct. 11: Pitt Panthers (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)

Saturday, Oct. 18: Stanford Cardinal (Stanford Stadium, Stanford)

Time: 10:30 p.m.

Channel: ESPN

Saturday, Oct. 25: BYE

Saturday, Nov. 1: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)

Saturday, Nov. 8: Clemson Tigers (Memorial Stadium, Clemson)

Saturday, Nov. 15: Virginia Tech Hokies (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee)

Friday, Nov. 21: NC State Wolfpack (Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh)

Time: 8 p.m.

Channel: ESPN

Saturday, Nov. 29: Florida Gators (Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville)