The 2024 Army Black Knights ravaged through the American Athletic Conference in their inaugural year in the conference. Army decimated its eight conference opponents by an average score of 36-13 while wielding the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense and a top five scoring defense. The Black Knights never trailed for a single second until their ninth game of the season on Nov. 9, and they only won one game by single-digits.
Dominant, indeed. But as commanding as Army was, the Black Knights weren’t even considered for a playoff spot despite steamrolling Tulane 35-14 in the AAC Championship Game and boasting an 11-1 record at the time of the committee’s selections.
Army’s playoff hopes ultimately boiled down to what transpired on Nov. 23 at Yankee Stadium. The Black Knights’ dominant, spotless record was marvelously undone 49-14 by Notre Dame — which wound up as the national runner-up to end the season. While the Black Knights were dominant in conference play, a non-conference shortcoming ultimately impacted their season.
That being said, which non-conference games does the AAC need most to secure a playoff bid in 2025? Here are the 10 most important matchups in the non-conference slate which determine if the conference can snatch its first bid to the CFP since 2021 Cincinnati.
How are games on this list chosen? Several factors are accounted for. The main factor is the likelihood of the AAC team contending for a conference championship — as a conference championship is essentially a requisite for an AAC team to qualify for the playoff. Other factors include the feasibility of the victory (i.e. these games shouldn’t have spreads above 28 points) and the effect an AAC victory would have on the national rankings.
Here are the 10:
10. North Carolina at Charlotte
Week 2: Saturday, September 6 — Charlotte, NC
Charlotte hired former Ohio head coach Tim Albin to lead the program in 2025. Albin won the MAC title last December with the Bobcats.
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North Carolina is going to be under the microscope this year due to the splash hire of six-time Super Bowl champion head coach Bill Belichick. And what will be the first collegiate road trip for the coach with the most Lombardi Trophies in NFL history? Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte for a date with the 49ers. Now Charlotte isn’t exactly viewed as an AAC contender. The 49ers only have one winning season since joining the FBS 10 years ago, faring 7-6 in 2019. But a win over Belichick’s Tar Heels would do wonders for Charlotte in the national conversation. Fresh off a 5-7 campaign, a sharp turnaround is possible. The 49ers hired reigning MAC champion head coach Tim Albin, who produced the greatest three-year stretch in Ohio history. With a roster loaded of transfer talent, we’ll quickly see what this program’s potential is in 2025.
9. BYU at East Carolina
Week 4: Saturday, September 20 — Greenville, NC
East Carolina defeated BYU on a game-winning field goal in 2022, and the Pirates ride a two-game streak over the Cougars.
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If this list was large enough for an 11th game, the selection would probably be the Thursday night opener between East Carolina and NC State in Raleigh. NC State is a rival ECU proved it could beat last December, as Rahjai Harris’ 86-yard run sealed a 26-21 Military Bowl victory. While the opener is essential for ECU, perhaps the Pirates’ biggest chance to make a statement is at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Week 4. BYU, coming off an 11-2 season, is likely undefeated and potentially ranked by the time this game rolls around. ECU, equipped with a returning quarterback in Katin Houser and a dangerous receiving corps, receives the luxury of homefield advantage against the Cougars — an opponent they beat as recently as 2022.
8. South Florida at Florida
Week 2: Saturday, September 6 — Gainesville, FL
Florida concluded its 2024 campaign on a 4-game win streak with a Gasparilla Bowl victory over Tulane.
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This slot here could be reserved for one of two South Florida non-conference opponents. The Bulls have a brutal start to September, taking road trips to Florida and Miami (FL) on Sept. 6 and Sept. 13, respectively. What Alex Golesh and his squad need to do is win one of those two contests. The Gators are primed for a special season after a 4-0 finish down the stretch of 2024, headlined by rising star quarterback DJ Lagway. Florida returns a horde of star talent, and there will be a ranking beside the Gators’ name when this game kicks off. Defeating an SEC contender will work wonders for the AAC in playoff conversations in 2025. And if that fails, South Florida has a chance for another statement the following week against Carson Beck and the Hurricanes.
7. Navy at Notre Dame
Week 11: Saturday, November 8 — South Bend, IN
Navy QB Blake Horvath rushed for 129 yards and 1 TD vs. Notre Dame in a 51-14 loss Oct. 26, 2024. The defeat ended Navy’s bid at an undefeated record.
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No team killed the AAC’s playoff chances in 2024 quite like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. First, Notre Dame ended Navy’s undefeated bid the last week of October to the tune of a 51-14 beatdown. Then the Fighting Irish targeted Navy’s arch rival Army, and it was more of the same — a 49-14 result at Yankee Stadium. Had Army won that game, or put up a valiant fight, perhaps the AAC would have been in playoff conversations come the first week of December. Navy has plenty of stars which should make it an AAC contender again, ranging from quarterback Blake Horvath to defensive tackle Landon Robinson. But if the Midshipmen want that playoff bid, playing respectably — or better yet, beating — Notre Dame in South Bend is the way to solidify it. Just ask Army.
6. Arkansas at Memphis
Week 4: Saturday, September 20 — Memphis, TN
Ryan Silverfield enters his sixth season at Memphis coming off his best year yet. His Tigers finished 11-2 with the #24 ranking in the final AP Poll.
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Only one AAC team escaped non-conference play unscathed last year, and that was Memphis. The Tigers were arguably the best team in the conference at year-end, finishing 11-2 with their second-highest final ranking in history (No. 24). Memphis didn’t qualify for the AAC title game due to close road losses to Navy and UTSA, but the Tigers took care of business on their stomping grounds. If Memphis wants another 4-0 non-conference showing, that requires defending homefield Week 4 against Arkansas. Arkansas has been volatile in recent years, and there is a chance Memphis falls victim to another Florida State situation — where the Tigers’ signature non-conference win quickly diminishes in value. But we don’t much about this 2025 Memphis team as Ryan Silverfield’s typically stable program is replacing a wealth of its 2024 production.
5. Army at Kansas State
Week 2: Saturday, September 6 — Manhattan, KS
Army won the 2024 AAC Championship Game after clearing its regular season conference slate with a perfect 8-0 record.
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Army was a non-conference victory away from securing a playoff berth in 2025, and now the Black Knights must ensure another non-conference shortcoming doesn’t doom them. Now 2025 Army is quite different from the senior laden 2024 squad led by sixth-place Heisman finisher Bryson Daily. But the Black Knights still have a strong culture and system in place with head coach Jeff Monken running the show, and he won 10+ games three times in his first 11 years at the helm. Army’s first true test arrives in Week 2 with a road trip to the Little Apple. Kansas State is never an easy out, and the Wildcats are expected to contend in the Big 12 with an improved Avery Johnson at quarterback and a veteran defense led by Austin Romaine. Control the clock and remain turnover free, and Army has a strong pathway to an undefeated non-conference record (at the time of the playoff selection, as the December game vs. Navy is technically non-conference too).
4. Duke at Tulane
Week 3: Saturday, September 13 — New Orleans, LA
Former Tulane QB Darian Mensah is Duke’s projected starter for the 2025 season.
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“Revenge games” weren’t always a thing in college football, but they are much more prevalent in this age of the transfer portal. Tulane made a surprise decision for its Week 1 quarterback last year when it settled on Darian Mensah, and the redshirt freshman took the Green Wave to the AAC title game behind a potent arm. Unfortunately for the Green Wave, Mensah was gone immediately after that title game as Mensah transferred to Duke in December. Duke, coming off a 9-win season with good roster continuity, and a stellar quarterback in Mensah, won’t be an easy out. But this matchup unfolds in Yulman Stadium, and Tulane filled some of its gaps with solid transfer acquisitions this offseason. Tulane doesn’t have an easy non-conference schedule so every win helps a playoff case tremendously.
3. Tulane at Ole Miss
Week 4: Saturday, September 20 — Oxford, MS
Ole Miss defeated Tulane 37-20 in the 2023 season, although the teams entered the 4th quarter tied at 17. It was Tulane’s only regular season loss.
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Speaking of Tulane’s challenging non-conference slate… It begins with Northwestern, South Alabama, and Duke and ends with an Ole Miss team that was on the fringe of the first 12-team playoff. Tulane fought for three-plus quarters against the Rebels in 2023 but ultimately fell short in what would be its only regular season loss. Had a 12-team playoff existed that year, Tulane would have been an AAC Championship win away from qualifying. The Green Wave fully expect to be contenders once again after three-straight trips to the conference title game. But if Tulane, which appeared on the New Year’s Six stage in 2022, wants to compete in a major bowl again, earning a signature win at Ole Miss is certainly a way to boost its profile in September.
2. UTSA at Texas A&M
Week 1: Saturday, August 30 — College Station, TX
UTSA QB Owen McCown opens his second year as the Roadrunners’ full-time starter in a hostile environment at Texas A&M.
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100,000 fans under the lights to open the season. Perhaps no AAC team will encounter an atmosphere quite like UTSA will in Week 1 at Texas A&M, and it’s the perfect opportunity for Jeff Traylor and the Roadrunners to show the nation what they’re all about. Texas A&M has been susceptible to non-conference upsets (see 2022 Appalachian State) and close calls (see 2024 Bowling Green) in recent memory, and this is certainly a winnable game for the underdog Roadrunners. UTSA retains a gluttony of experience on the offensive end with a rising star quarterback in Owen McCown, which makes Traylor’s team every bit an AAC contender. But before conference play launches, UTSA can make the ultimate in SEC country and be apart of way-too-early playoff conversations before the calendar even flips to September.
1. Boise State at South Florida
Week 1: Thursday, August 28 — Tampa, FL
Boise State participated in the 2024 College Football Playoff as the Mountain West champion.
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This may not have been the game you expected to receive the No. 1 spot on this list, but hear me out. Five conference champions receive an automatic bid to the CFP, although no specific conference receives an automatic bid under the current format. History suggests the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC likely secure four of those five bids in most seasons, which makes the AAC’s top competition the Mountain West. Boise State earned a playoff bid as the Mountain West champion last year, and just like every year of the 21st century, the Broncos are expected to contend for the conference crown in 2025. The biggest statement the AAC can make is taking down the Mountain West’s top juggernaut on the field in Week 1. Whether it’s South Florida contending for an AAC title come December or another AAC team, many poll voters and committee members could point to the happenings in Tampa on Aug. 28 in the case of an AAC-Mountain West debate.