NFL Win/Loss Preview Series: Green Bay Packers originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

Entrenched in arguably the league’s toughest division, can we find ten wins on the Packers’ schedule? 

PACKERS’ WIN/LOSS ODDS:

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Packers spent 2025 doing Packer things ,as the NFL’s best balanced team you never heard of. Stylistically a little boring on both sides of the ball, Green Bay’s proved the blue-collar foundational formula correct time after time — coaching plus quarterbacking with strong O-line play and lots of zone defense wins. I especially liked the selection of T Anthony Belton at Pick 2.54 to bolster trench depth.

For an offense with such strong macros (27.1 PPG, 6.1 yards/play, 48.8% success rate, +0.06 EPA/play), you could argue the pass-catching room lacked a true explosive playmaker with Christian Watson on the shelf (again). Green Bay got their guy, drafting WR Matthew Golden at #23 overall in April. For anyone who completely missed draft season, Golden ran the fastest 40-yard dash time at the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine, clocking in at 4.29 seconds (per NBC). Whoa.

Needless to say, the organizations excited top to bottom for the dawning of the Golden Era.

Not to get too deep into offseason vibes but the recent release of two-time Pro Bowler CB Jaire Alexander amidst this competitive of a window rubbed me the wrong way. Trust me, I understand it’s a cold world and freeing up +$17M in cash matters, but there’s no lack of alpha WRs to defend in this division.

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GB did sign former Raider Nate Hobbs to a sizable deal, and perhaps they view the move as lateral. Maybe it’s me but these NFC North tilts get won on the margins, where a single splash play could change the outcome.

Remember, the Pack went 11-6 in 2024, yet five of their six defeats came in-division! If you want to keep pace in wild track meets versus Minnesota and Detroit, not only must you score, but also suppress secondary options like Jordan Addison and Sam LaPorta.

Anyway, Alexander only defended 232 routes and GB easily finished as a top-5 overall defensive unit without him (19.9 PPG, 314.5 yards/game, 5.2 yards/play, +0.07 EPA/snap). Matt LaFleur’s success came from mixing defensive styles, deploying as many old-school 4-DB sets as anyone while also mixing in lots of newer two-high preventative shell looks.

Winning at the point of attack without necessarily sacrificing defenders to get the QB serves to the aforementioned balance responsible for GB’s success. Do everything well, and you don’t need highlight plays to win. The process works and Im expecting more of the same in 2025.

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LAGHEZZA’S LEAN:

If you can’t tell from my gushing over Green Bay, I’m bullish on the Pack. And while I don’t love hanging a (-125) on the shelf for six months, I can’t see Jordan Love repeating those same poor divisional performances.

It hasn’t yet but may end up on my ticket. That’s if the price moves our direction as vibes around the Bears and Vikings skyrocket when their QBs complete a preseason pass. I’m leaning into the market finding Green Bay too boring to steam — and if we get to even money for ten wins, count me in.

Thanks so much for reading — If you’re interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page. Don’t be shy — DM me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I’ll hook you up with a free trial.

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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 17, 2025, where it first appeared.