SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

When the Patriots run – Edge: Dolphins

The Patriots running game has been slightly improved over the past two weeks but still not anywhere near as productive as Alex Van Pelt would like. Rhamondre Stevenson was held below 4 yards per carry once again, finishing with 73 yards on 20 carries against a shaky Rams run defense. The offensive line has been in place for three straight weeks but still struggles to open up holes. Stevenson is met in the backfield as he receives the handoff frequently, making yards tough to come by. That doesn’t figure to get much easier in South Florida where the Dolphins maligned defense has actually been rather stout against the run. Miami ranks ninth in the league, allowing 109 yards per game on the ground, and 14th at 4.4 yards per carry. Miami’s three-man front of Zach Sieler, Benito Jones and veteran Calais Campbell has held up well most of the season. The Patriots were able to gash the Dolphins on a couple of occasions in the first meeting back in Week 5. Stevenson (12 carries, 89 yards) and Antonio Gibson (6-52) both turned in big plays with carries of 33 and 24 yards, respectively. But the Patriots haven’t approached that type of production on the ground since, and Miami is healthier up front than it was the first time around.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Patriots

Drake Maye continues to be a revelation for the Patriots and he’s coming off arguably his best game thus far in the loss to the Rams. He carved up L.A.’s secondary while dealing with the Rams formidable pass rush and had the Patriots in position to post the comeback. He continues to lean on tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper, but against the Rams he got support from Kendrick Bourne and DeMario Douglas as well. Miami’s pass defense has performed well, ranking 10th in the league while allowing 199 yards per game, and ninth at 6.3 yards per pass. Maye will need to be aware of the dangerous Jalen Ramsey, who likes to bait quarterbacks into throws at times. He and fellow veteran Kendall Fuller (who missed the Raiders game with a concussion) and Kader Kohou man the corner spots with Jordan Poyer, Jevon Holland and Marcus Maye at safety. That group struggled with Raiders tight end Brock Bowers last week, allowing the rookie to catch 13 balls for 126 yards, but pretty much shut down the rest of the Vegas passing game. Unlike the Rams, Miami’s pass rush has been virtually non-existent with the loss of edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, so Maye should get more time to dissect the Dolphins defense.

When the Dolphins run – Edge: Dolphins

Mike McDaniel is cut from the same cloth as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay and all three like to run the ball to set up their creative passing schemes. When healthy, the Dolphins have been able to do so effectively at times this season. That was certainly the case in Week 5 when Miami racked up 193 yards on the ground despite missing top back De’Von Achane from most of the game and playing without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright did the damage in Foxborough, and with Achane back look for McDaniel to grind it out again. The Patriots front has struggled most of the season in that department, and last week had a tough time containing the Rams Kyren Williams, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry. Davon Godchaux, Jeremiah Pharms and Daniel Ekuale got some help with the return of Christian Barmore, but after missing the season while dealing with blood clots the talented pass rusher was limited to just 21 snaps in his season debut. That group will need to be more stout in Miami to prevent the Dolphins from controlling the ball, which they did effectively against the Raiders with four scoring drives that featured double-digit plays.

When the Dolphins pass – Edge: Dolphins

The difference with and without Tagovailoa for the Dolphins offense is staggering. Miami never scored more than 15 points in any of the four games he missed while averaging 28 points per game in the four since he returned. Obviously, that’s resulted in a huge boost to the passing game as receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have started to resemble their normal selves during that time as well. Tagovailoa is coming off a game in which he completed 28 of 36 for 288 yards with three touchdowns, and no picks and Hill has now found the end zone in each of the last two games after not scoring since the opener. The Patriots secondary is coming off a rough outing against Matthew Stafford and the Rams as both Puka Nucua and Cooper Kupp topped the 100-yard mark while combining for three touchdowns. Christian Gonzalez didn’t match up man-to-man often in that game and it will be interesting to see if DeMarcus Covington changes that approach this week in South Florida. In addition to Hill and Waddle, former Patriot Jonnu Smith is enjoying a solid season in Miami with 39 catches for 448 yards and three touchdowns, including a 57-yarder last week against the Raiders. This will be another tall task for the Patriots back end.

Special Teams – Edge: Dolphins

The Patriots continue to shoot themselves in the foot when it comes to consistency on special teams. Mistakes cost the team once again in the loss to the Rams as Joey Slye had a PAT blocked and on the ensuing kickoff the cover team allowed L.A. a 34-yard return to give the Rams good field position. Aside from the dangerous Marcus Jones, who averages 15.6 yards per punt return, the Patriots haven’t been able to generate much positive momentum. Miami is solid in the kicking department with kicker Jason Sanders and punter Jake Bailey. Sanders is perfect on 16 PATs while also sporting a solid 19 of 23 mark on field goals with two of the misses coming from beyond 50 and all four from beyond 45. Bailey has just two touchbacks all season and averages 46.6 yards per punt. The Dolphins return game has been quiet since losing Braxton Berrios to injury, but Malik Washington did have a 19-yard punt return earlier in the season and Dee Eskridge averages 30 yards per kickoff return in limited action. Miami’s punt coverage has been shaky at times so perhaps Jones can exploit that with a big play, but the Patriots need to find a way to avoid the self-inflicted wounds that have plagued them most of the season.