Indianapolis Colts’ running back Jonathan Taylor totaled the fourth-most rushing yards last season. However, a new metric says he could be due for a regression in 2025.
This new running back-specific metric is called ATEX and was developed by Chris Trapasso. What it does is it takes into account two key aspects of playing the running back position: missed tackles forced and explosive runs of 15 or more yards.
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In terms of raw numbers, Taylor had a very productive 2024 season. He totaled 1,431 rushing yards, and his 4.7 yards per rush were tied for the 13th most among running backs.
However, by this ATEX metric, Taylor ranked second-to-last among backs with at least 200 carries last season.
The reason for this is that Taylor didn’t rank all that well in missed tackles forced relative to the number of carries he had. In total missed tackles forced, Taylor ranked 27th, according to PFF, and in average yards after contact, he ranked 44th.
In explosive runs, Taylor still totaled the fourth-most carries of 15 or more yards, and he was ninth in PFF’s breakaway rate metric, which measures how often a player breaks a run of 15-plus yards.
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So, in Trapasso’s new running back metric, the lack of missed tackles forced and yards after contact hurt Taylor’s standing most in these rankings.
Naturally, all eyes will be on the Colts‘ quarterback competition, but his success is vital to the success and consistency of the overall offense. A strong running game keeps an offense ahead of the sticks, out of predictable passing situations, and can open up opportunities through the air. Or in short, he can take some of that burden off the quarterback’s shoulders.
This article originally appeared on Colts Wire: Could Colts’ RB Jonathan Taylor take a step back in 2025?