When former Patriots executive Nick Caserio became the general manager in Houston, the Texans were in flux coming off a 4-12 season.

For Caserio, it took two more losing seasons until Houston got off the mat. The Texans won a combined seven games, had multiple head coaches, and had a major quarterback change. Like the Patriots are experiencing, Houston took their lumps to become an AFC darling.

The Texans are rolling after hiring head coach DeMeco Ryans, drafting star QB C.J. Stroud, and accumulating first-round picks. Houston went 10-7 in Ryans and Stroud’s first season with the team, winning a playoff game to reach the divisional round. This season, the Texans have the second-best record in the AFC at 4-1 after defeating the Bills at the buzzer last week.

Although things are bumpy in Foxborough, the Texans gave the rebuilding Patriots a blueprint, right down to an early first-round quarterback and a former linebacker-turned-head coach. Ryans, who received votes for NFL Coach of the Year in 2023, has a resume similar to that of head coach Jerod Mayo. Following a 10-year playing career, Ryans spent six seasons on 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s defensive staff. Eventually, Ryans became San Francisco’s defensive coordinator for two seasons before becoming a head coach.

After playing for the Patriots for eight seasons, Coach Mayo was on former head coach Bill Belichick’s staff for five seasons. Mayo and Ryans also took the reins as first-time head coaches before turning 40. The parallels between these two organizations should give Patriots fans hope for the future: a Belichick disciple as a GM, Mayo-Ryans similarities, and two early first-round quarterbacks.

Speaking of the future and quarterback, Maye will make his first career start in Sunday’s game at Gillette Stadium. It’s the beginning of a new era in New England, and as we’ll break down in this space, Maye will have a stiff test out of the gate against an AFC contender. Houston is currently seventh in total DVOA with the third-best defense in the NFL through five weeks. The Texans also feature the league’s best pass rush, with a pressure rate of 42%. Still, this is an exciting development for an offense that needs the talented rookie to give them a spark.

Here is a breakdown of both sides of the ball and key matchups as the Patriots host the Texans at Gillette Stadium on Sunday:

Patriots Offense vs. Texans Defense: Devising a Game Plan for Maye’s First Career Start

Before we get into the Texans defense, let’s begin by discussing what the call sheet could look like for Maye in his first career start for the Patriots (I still kind of can’t believe it).

During the summer, we asked offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt about his offense, emphasizing playing from under center. In the first five weeks, New England was under center on 38% of their offensive plays, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. The reasoning for the question was that Maye almost exclusively operated in the shotgun or pistol at North Carolina. Then, in 50 drop-backs between the preseason and regular season, Maye was only under center on four plays (8%). Here is what the Pats OC said back in August:

“In our system, we go under center. Our run game is a big part of what we do, and that starts from under center. I think he’s adapted well. It was foreign to him as he got here, but right now, it looks seamless,” Van Pelt said.

Van Pelt seemed encouraged by Maye’s progress operating under center during the preseason. That could mean that, with the Patriots down three scores vs. the Jets, the situation didn’t make sense for them to be under center. There’s also a world where AVP runs his under-center offense from the pistol, where the runner can still go in either direction from behind the quarterback, and you can play-action pass by turning the quarterback’s back to the defense.

Besides deciding how they’ll align the quarterback with Maye, the rookie’s most common routes were hitches, flats, and crossers, with most of his throws being in-breaking routes (31%). He also threw mostly in the quick game or rhythm rather than extended plays. Here were some repeat plays we saw on film when Maye got his opportunities.