A great many factors go into the formula for a team receiving a compensatory pick in the draft. But first and foremost, it’s simple math. Taking all the incoming and outgoing free agents that qualify in the formula and finding a number.
In this case, the Raiders lost four free qualifying free agents and gaine three. Which means they get one comp pick in the 2026 draft.
The folks at Overthecap.com project the offset to land the Raiders a comp pick in Round four.
Here’s how that breaks down..
Incoming free agents:
S Jeremy Chinn ($8M)
CB Eric Stokes ($3.5M)
LB Elandon Roberts ($3M)
Non-qualifying:
Lonnie Johnson Jr ($1.7M)
Outgoing free agents:
S Trevon Moehrig ($17M)
CB Nate Hobbs ($12M)
LB Robert Spillane ($11M)
LB Divine Deablo ($7M)
Non-qualifying:
K’Lavon Chaisson ($3)
Marcus Epps ($2)
The losses of Hobbs, Spillane, and Deablo are cancelled out by the additions of Chinn, Roberts, and Stokes. Leaving the Raiders to receive a comp pick for the loss of Tre’von Moehrig, who signed a deal with the Panthers that pays him an average of $17 million per season. Which, if using just average per year as a criteria, projects to be worth a round four pick.
Keep in mind, this is a projection. It’s a most likely scenario. That’s because things like playing time and postseason awards are factored into the formula. How these guys perform this season could raise or lower the pick compensation or even drop them below the eligibility line, which would mean the simple math would change and the Raiders will have lost even more players than they gained, giving them another comp pick. Presumably that would be a round five comp pick, either from the loss of Nate Hobbs or Robert Spillane.
But as of now, this is the pick the Raiders are expected to receive. This past draft, the team seemed to value their picks in rounds three and four most, so new GM John Spytek will gladly take it.